Top official: without Iraqi oil, we hit the wall in 2015

[Subdivisions]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/6/27/165424/633

In a stunning interview for the French (reference) daily Le Monde, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015

-snip-

Within 5 to 10 years, non-OPEP production will reach a peak and begin to decline, as reserves run out. There are new proofs of that fact every day. At the same we'll see the peak of China's economic growth. The two events will coincide: the explosion of Chinese growth, and the fall in non-OPEP oil production. Will the oil world manage to face that twin shock is an open question.

-snip-

Finally. An admission by the top economist official of the world's foremost energy watchdog group.

My fellow DUers. I love you all. Please, change your way of thinking and give some serious thought about your futures and the futures of all of those you love, especially your children.

Everything we see bad happening in the world comes down to one thing: Energy depletion.

And they know it.

[IDemo]

1. "Saudi Arabian promises to be able to bring its capacity from 12mb/d today to 15mb/d in 2015"

They certainly don't appear to be anywhere near 12mb/d presently, unless they have really turned on those spigots since January:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2325

Saudi Arabian oil production, Jan 2006-Jan 2007, from four different sources.
Source: US EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3,
Joint Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 17 (or similar) on OPEC Supply.

Extremely doubtful that they will ever see 15 million barrels/day.

[Subdivisions]

4. I truly believe that energy depletion will be the

defining nightmare of our existance.

Found the following interesting takes on the Peak Oil issue:

http://home.entouch.net/dmd/Future_oil_supply.htm

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

[IDemo]

7. Agreed. Read the following words and then ponder the above chart again

from Dr Samsam Bakhtiari,

"When it happens on a large scale then Ghawar is going to collapse and you will have a cliff in the production of Ghawar. When you have a cliff there, the whole Saudi production system is going to fall apart. If that happens, we will start hearing bells ringing all over the place, and the price of oil is going to go through the roof..."

Bakhtiari is a senior expert employed by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). He has held a number of senior positions with this organisation since 1971. He is also an advisor to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre.

[wuushew]

2. Yep and that idiot Levin keeps voting no on CAFE

This country is so screwed

[Ganja Ninja]

24. The UAW is as much a part of the problem as the car companies

or the oil companies or the politicians. They don't want change because it hurts them in the short run. I've watched it first hand for many years. The average UAW member loves his big car or SUV just like a lot of other people. Levin is voting for what his constituents want.

[Subdivisions]

33. "Levin is voting for what his constituents want."? That's bullshit!

How is anyone to know what the hell Levin's constituency really wants if that constituency isn't supplied with all the facts. Namely, how can a person make a decision whether or not driving a big ole honkin' SUV is a good idea if he/she doesn't know about peak oil? By extension, Levin's constituency might support CAFE if they were forming their position based on all the facts.

[Ganja Ninja]

36. Do you think people really care about "Peak Oil"?

People are only interested in putting gas in their car. They don't want to hear or think about a dismal future of $10-plus a gallon gas and mile long gas lines. Oil and gas are going the way of the American Buffalo and people aren't going to get the message until they're standing in those long gas lines and cursing everybody but themselves for their troubles.

The same goes for the American auto industry. The only time they give a shit about changing is when sales go flat and they're standing in the unemployment line. Levin understands that and that's why he consistently votes against raising CAFE standards. He would have a tough time getting re-elected in Michigan if he voted otherwise.

[mod mom]

3. Yet instead of a push toward alternative initiatives + change, we find these bastards

hoarding resources, grabbing water and pushing our specie toward extinction.

[Subdivisions]

5. The Paraguay escape is their bug-out. n/t

[mod mom]

25. I have a feeling Chavez is not going to be too keen on that one-although it

certainly sounds like bfee and their moonie friend have that in mind. You gotta love how they paid for an airforce base their w taxpayers money. :mad:

[Supersedeas]

32. Iraq and OIL, who in the Media would have figured!?!

[dailykoff]

6. Guess we better brush up our espanol

cuz we're gonna have to start being nicer to Hugo.

[DS1]

8. This comes as no surprise

Next, they'll call it a war on security, by security they mean stable Oil. Oil is the lifeblood of just about all machinery. Perhaps like they call starvation "Food Security" they'll call a lack of oil "Motion security"

[robinlynne]

9. Good. I'm sick of oil. Solar energy is ready to take care of our needs right now.

[gateley]

10. And it's becoming more affordable -- so they say... It may be a GOOD thing

to realize the spigot will run dry SOON so all nations get off their butts and start seriously exploring alternatives.

[Subdivisions]

19. You are correct that solar power costs are

coming down. I am the web admin of a leading solar products supplier and I have seen cost improving the better the technology gets.

I am afraid, however, that unless we, along with every other supplier, start doubling or tripling our sales soon then not even solar power will save us.

[davekriss]

20. There is no replacement on the horizon

There is no "alternative" fuel that will replace the cheap, easy energy kick the world has enjoyed these last 100 years from oil. All the alternative technologies combined, if fully utilized tomorrow, replace only a fraction of the energy oil currently supplies.

Those of you who tout that, with the rise in the price of oil, other energy sources become economically feasible, forget that the high price of these other sources is related (as is the price of all sources) to Energy Returned over Energy Invested (EROEI). If it takes energy to mine the semiconductor material that gets used in solar panels, energy to manufacture the panels, energy to ship, install, and maintain the panels, that investment needs to be examined against the energy yielded once in place. It's net energy above investment that matters. It's a matter of physics, not economics.

The Oil Interval enabled the human population to bloom from about 1.8 billion before industrialization to just under 7 billion today. When oil is depleted some 50-100 years from now (we are talking about reaching peak supply now), will the carrying capacity of planet earth fall back to 1.8 billion? What happens to the other 5 billion human beings? Are we witnessing the bloom in the petri dish phenomenon, where biomass growth rockets up exponentially only to exhaust the resources in the dish upon which life depends leading to a massive die-off? Is Iraq and Afghanistan -- wars instigated by our Oil President, Oil Vice President, and Oil Secretary of State (Condi once had an Exxon tanker named after her) -- are these, the first resource wars of this century, harbingers of more terrible things yet to come?

Yes, exploit all alternative energy sources, they will soften the harsh ride down the backward slope of Hubbert's Peak. But we also will need to fundamentally reorganize how we live, each of us conscious of our energy footprint, driven by an ethic of shared compassion to conserve; we'll have to localize our foodsources, our manufacture of goods; and we'll have to abandon our imperial, centralized nation-states propped up today by oil-driven military machines. However, getting to that end-state will be revolutionary and probably bloody, as those at the top of our socio-economic pyramids will fight tooth and nail to preserve their energy-engorged privileged state (just ponder the example of Bush and Iraq).

[Emit]

34. You pretty much just summed up what keeps me awake at night and distracted by day n/t

[gateley]

35. Thanks for the reality check --

I, for one, DO intend to simplify the means needed to achieve clean energy. It's a take on the "world peace begins with me". Other than requesting paper bags and recycling, you've helped me to realize I can do much more.

[robinlynne]

29. It would be good for the earth, good for international unity. It will only be bad

for exxon, the bushes, and the saudis if we stop using oil.

[oldlady]

11. The Long Emergency by Kunstler

My old man's been reading this book and horrifying me daily for two weeks. He's finished reading and it's my turn, but I'm terrified to read it....gives a practical outlook on how the loss of oil will change the world. We're working on a five year plan...

[Theduckno2]

15. I second that recommendation.

James Howard Kunstler posts once a week(usually Monday) at the following website. I caution the fainthearted.


http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/

If you are comfortable with RSS feeds, then I do as I do and add the feed to get updates.

Mr. Kunstler figured prominently in documentary video "The End of Suburbia".

[Viva_La_Revolution]

17. It will be scary, it scared me

but you will be much better prepared.

[DemoTex]

12. By 2015 my Prius will be an embarrassing gas-guzzler. I hope.

Know what I mean, Vern?

[brokensymmetry]

13. 2015? Oh, such optimism.

I'm sorry - but it's too late. Too late to change our thinking,
way too late to change the vast infrastructure of our economy.

We're on an ice-covered road, traveling 90MPH, and up ahead the
bridge over a great chasm is out. Slam on the brakes, if you
wish. Try to steer, if that pleases you. Turn on the radio,
for all the good it will do. We had a chance to change course
back during Carter's presidency, and we blew it. We are going
over the cliff, we are going to crash, and it is going to be
bloody.

Read Overshoot by Catton.
Twilight in the Desert by Simmons.
Long Emergency by Kunstler.
The Olduvai Theory by Duncan (on the web)
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT by Hirsch (on the web)

Hug your kids, tell the people you care about how important they are,
forgive those you can, and end old fights...but don't expect this to
end pleasantly. And don't count on 8 good years. Hope for 3.

[Baby Snooks]

14. Not true...

The projection by one oil industry group which was recently released included all proven reserves including the ones in Iraq. The reserves in Iraq will only guarantee we have sufficient oil supplies until 2015. Some say it will be 2010. Not long after this report was released, Pemex, the Mexican oil company, issued a statement concerning depletion of its oil reserves within 7 years. Some believe it will be far less than 7 years. We import between 15 and 20% of our oil from Mexico depending on whose figures you believe. The oil and gas industry lies like everyone else. This same statement said that as of August of 2007, production in Mexico was at 40% from August of 2006. None of this is news in the oil and gas industry. They've known for quite some time. But, well, some simply want to get the last dime out of the last drop. Just to make sure they can afford the $50 a gallon gasoline for their Bentleys and the $25,000 electric bills for their $100 million duplexes and triplexes and townhouses in the gated sections of Manhattan.

http://www.oildepletion.org/roger/index.htm

Notice the "last updated" date. 2002. Five years ago.

[JCMach1]

16. This is a false assumption... oil reserves are relative

if oil is $100 a barrel, many new reserves open up: oil sands, deep ocean oil, oil from coal, etc.

Peak oil in terms of supply is an illusion. There is more than enough supply out there: at a price.

That price is to economies and the environment.

It is much more likely that alternative technologies will start putting a chokehold on demand in the next 25 years... leading to a period shortly after where oil is as cheap as dirt.

The oil wars of today are about price and profits (not supply) because the industry knows they will be almost completely redundant before the end of this century.

Until then, it's all about the $$$

[AntiFascist]

18. Interesting take....

I wonder if Saudi Arabia is funding al Qaida because they don't want to see the competition (including lowered price) of Iraqi oil production.

[FogerRox]

40. KSA is funding the Sunnis in Iraq

[davekriss]

21. See post #20 above (n/t)

[whosinpower]

28. I couldn't of said it better myself

Those are the words I was looking for. Thanks for saying the obvious.

[FogerRox]

37. I dont care if oil is $200/brl

digging bitumen out of the ground is not viable w/o a dozen nukes to power the project. THe very idea that some are talking about boiling bitumen out of the soil is totally insane.

AS far as deep ocean oil... I'm not waiting for those fields to be found, that Jack field in the Gulf of Mexico is going to take yrs just to get the well head secured.

As far as coal is concerned, I recently read about 5 industry reports that say at current use peak coal happens in 2050. if we increase the use of coal, lets say thru liquid fuels, peak coal comes closer.

Pumping at the super giant oil field Ghawar started in about 1949, no oil field as large or larger has been found since then. No giant oil field has been found since the mid 1970's.

[leftchick]

22. it certainly explains the democrats in congress position

and their assertion that we need to keep troops in the mideast "for US security interests" AKA: Oil!

[paparush]

23. Carl Sagan: Our Technological Adolescence.

We're still in diapers and the future does not look promising.

[Oldenuff]

26. Actually,Canada has huge amounts

of oil sands.The amount rivals Saudi Arabia.(according to what I have read.There are problems with it however,as the process for removing it is expensive and very polluting.(not that the Big Oil Comapanies care much about that),but probably the biggest problem with the whole thing is that we probably can't get George to invade Canada so that Big Oil can take the fields over.(what with Iraq and Iran and all).Maybe he'll leave that for the next Repug President.Gotta protect America from all those Canadian tearists...right?They probably have weapons of mass confusion,and nucular materials as well:sarcasm:

[whosinpower]

27. You have already taken over

There is no need to invade Canada. Big Oil ALREADY owns the oilsands.

With the help of Nafta - America has already taken over a majority of Canadian businesses. There are very few that are Canadian owned and operated. What you really fear is that if Canada IS annexed with America - then you would have 30 million LIBERALS tipping the scales so to speak of your democracy. OHMYGAWD...not the dreaded universal healthcare!!!!

[FogerRox]

38. oil sands do not rival KSA

The EIA projects Canadian oil sands could produce 2.2 million barrels a day by 2025, right now the world uses 84 million brls/day.
Actually we need that 2.2 million brls/day right by next year. 2025 is way TOO LATE.

Oil sands reserves may be half of the KSA

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4649580.stm

And KSA has been pumping oil since the end of WW2, Ghawar has been pumped since 1949, and is over 1/2 depleted. So really the oil sands might be 20% of what the KSA had 60 yrs ago.

KSA production is in decline & nothing in the next 10 yrs or 40 yrs can replace that oil.



World oil production looks to have peaked in may of 2005:



By the way the oil sands projects in Canada are not viable long term, w/o a huge power source, they need about 10 or 12 nukes to make it work on a large scale. And even then for every 1.3 gallons of gas made, it will take 1 gallon.

This is what the tar sands really mean to oil production

[mmonk]

30. So they don't want to sell their oil?

[Subdivisions]

31. Of course they do not want to sell it. That is if you mean

'they' as being the busheviks. If you mean the Iraqis, they don't possess it, "we" do. As for selling it, why sell it now when they can hold on to it until the price of a barrel goes to $100 or even $250 in just a couple of more years.

Iraq, and the impending war with Iran, are RESOURCE WARS!

Russia and China are sure to also be preparing their moves with regard to securing energy resources. Afterall, why shouldn't their ways of life also be non-negotiable?

[L. Coyote]

39. D'OH! Without wind and solar, we hit the wall, you idiot!