Abu Risha murdered

[ProSense]

Abu Risha murdered

I was in the middle of putting the finishing touches on an short piece about Iraqi Sunni politics due out later today when I got an urgent flash that Abd al-Sattar Abu Risha had been murdered in Anbar. Nothing could have been more predictable than the murder of Abu Risha, the man most closely identified with America's Anbar strategy. He was the public face of the turn against al-Qaeda, and Petraeus immediately said that "it shows Al Qaeda in Iraq remains a very dangerous and barbaric enemy." But there's no reason to assume that al-Qaeda killed him - I'd guess that one of the nationalist insurgency groups, the ones which current American rhetoric pretends don't exist - is a more likely suspect. Other tribes deeply resented him. The major nationalist insurgency groups had recently issued a series of statements denouncing people who would illegitimately seize the fruits of their victorious jihad - of whom he was the prime example. All those photographs which swamped the Arab media showing him shaking hands with President Bush made him even more a marked man than before.

His murder graphically demonstrates that the other groups threatened by the American Anbar strategy were never going to just sit back passively and allow it to succeed - an obvious strategic point which has always seemed to elude surge advocates. The Sunni strategy as presented by surge advocates has always rested not only on a whole series of dubious claims about Iraqi Sunni politics, but also relies on a whole series of best-case scenarios in which nothing could go wrong. In Iraq, something always goes wrong.

It's a major setback for the strategy, particularly at the symbolic level. Even if Abu Risha was a poor choice to "lead" the strategy, he was in fact elevated to that symbolic position by American propaganda and practice (that meeting with the President, for instance). His murder demonstrates that even America's closest friends are not untouchable - not even on the day of a Presidential address expected to rely heavily on progress in Anbar. The political fallout of the murder inside of Iraq may well exceed Abu Risha's actual role in Sunni politics.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=1797883&mesg_id=1797883">"There is no Anbar model."

[TomInTib]

1. Yep. Working like a charm. nt

[TahitiNut]

2. Wow! That was quick. Shake hands with the Dumbass and die.

Sunni sheik, a key US ally, is killed in blast
Los Angeles Times, CA - 54 minutes ago

Bomb Kills Sunni Sheik Working With US in Iraq
New York Times, United States - 1 hour ago

Iraq Bomb Kills US-Backed Sheik Who Fought Al-Qaeda (Update2)
Bloomberg - 1 hour ago

Pentagon calls sheikh's assassination a "tragic loss"
AFP - 43 minutes ago

Top Sunni Sheik Killed in IED Attack
ABC News - 1 hour ago

[Javaman]

4. Touch of death...

At first I thought the expression on this guys face was of resentment to moron*, now I know it was of fear of his face being broadcast across Iraq. Basically painting a bullseye on his forehead.

[KoKo]

3. How will the Bush Neo-Con's spin this "set back" and how will Dems in Congress

view this? I doubt M%M will jump on it so that the American People know that Bush gave the "handshake of death" to Risha ....but surely those in Congress should be seeing this as another of Bush's failures in this War. Everything he touches is a disaster. We will stay in Iraq, though. Because so many interests want us there. And, we can't let this dampen the CNN/NeoCon push into bombing Iran. :sarcasm:

[w8liftinglady]

5. CNN called it a major setback in the war in iraq.They devoted a good 5 minutes to it

[Kelly Rupert]

6. This is bad news.

As stupid as American strategy in Iraq is, the one goddamn thing that was not an absolute catastrophe was the temporary alliance struck between Americans and Sunnis against al-Qaeda.

[ProSense]

7. It's a disaster waiting to happen

Way beyond any "success" claimed by Petraeus, what's happening in Anbar is once again a replay of what happened in eastern Afghanistan in 2001. Local tribes profit from US largesse - and weapons - and then proceed with their own tribal and/or nationalist agenda. What matters for all these players, most of all, is restoration of Sunni power. The Dulaimi tribe and sub-clans, armed by the Americans, as soon as they have a chance, will try to topple the US-sponsored puppet government in Baghdad.

Behind the Anbar myth

[ProSense]

8. Insurgency? What Insurgency?

<...>

In today's New York Observer, an interview with the noted counterinsurgency expert Bard E. O’Neill reminded me how this myopic view of the Sunni insurgency has been paralyzing us since shortly after the U.S. invasion, if not even earlier, during pre-invasion planning:

What’s most striking, Bard says, is how his students in his counterinsurgency and terrorism classes at Washington’s National War College, freshly returned from Iraq, testified to the paucity of strategic thinking on the ground.

“This was a Special Forces colonel, a really sharp guy, he’s a guy who knew all this stuff on counterinsurgency. He said to me, ‘Let me give you a specific example: I’m on the tarmac at an airbase in Iraq, and up walks Paul Wolfowitz. He says, “How’s everything going, Colonel?” And I say, “This is a pretty tenacious insurgency, Mr. Wolfowitz.” And Wolfowitz looks back and says, “This is not an insurgency.”’”

At which point, Mr. O’Neill relates, his student “rolled his eyes, and said, ‘What can you say to someone like that?’”

link

<...>

Today at the Press Club, he very briefly referred to the Sunni insurgency, urging reporters, "don't get me wrong" about its existence. But it would be very easy to get the general wrong, since his description of the ongoing Iraqi Sunni insurgency against the U.S. consigned it to an afterthought compared to al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the Shiite militias.

But it's the Sunni insurgency, primarily, that's responsible for the approximately 93 soldiers killed on average in Iraq each month this year. "It's not Al Qaeda in Iraq -- they are strictly a (car bomb) and occasional ambush group," says Malcolm Nance, a longtime counterterrorism expert and former adviser to the U.S. military in both Afghanistan and Iraq. "Nope, it's the ex-Ba'athists and Iraqi religious extremists."

According to Nance's recent book, The Terrorists of Iraq, that aggregated Sunni force -- the non-AQI insurgency -- constitutes almost all of the insurgency, with AQI possessing an estimated order of battle at about 1300 fighters and supporters, compared to 103,000 for the ex-Baathists and Iraqi jihadis. It should be said that Nance's book was published in May, just as the "Anbar Awakening" was taking shape, but the disparity between the Sunni insurgency and AQI he presents is large enough to make his estimate enduringly useful.

So what's up with playing down the Sunni insurgency? "This may be an information operation to make everyone in the Sunni insurgency be disgraced by being called AQI," Nance speculates. "However, I know Petraeus is fighting what he called 'from the middle to the extremes' and views the AQI and Mahdi militia as priority number one. He probably feels he can take the punches of the Sunni insurgents to the point where they are a continuing mission, just not mission number one." Perhaps more cynically, Nance adds, "He was fudging it but not actually making them disappear. He knows what Bush wants to hear."

link

[cali]

10. Great stuff, thanks ProSense. n/t

[ProSense]

9. Kick! n/t

[spanone]

11. shake hands with the devil....