I wonder: Did Hurricane Humberto prove Bill Proenza to be correct about aging weather satellite?

[journalist3072]

Of course, one of the big news items today was that Hurricane Humberto surprised forecasters with respect to its intensity. Forecasters expected it to hit Texas as a tropical depression, and it ended up being a Cat 1 hurricane.

And immediately, I thought: did the surprise intensity of Hurricane Humberto prove the former Director of the National Hurricane Center to be correct about the aging satellite system?

Bill Proenza was the director of the National Hurricane Center, but he was recently fired after he publicly voiced concern about the aging satellite system, and said that if the antiquated system was not replaced fast enough, hurricane forecasts would suffer.

This was a man who, as director of the National Hurricane Center, was trying to sound the alarm about the dangers that an aging satellite system pose to our ability to forecast hurricanes. His reward? Being fired.



Background info on Mr. Proenza's termination:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20721787/

[Purveyor]

1. Perhaps but storms in that part of the gulf are notorious for the 'surprise'...

Alicia in '83 is one that comes to mind...

[Ilsa]

3. Exactly. Alicia killed more than a few people and surprised everyone.

The water in the western gulf has been getting warmer each year. It was no surprise this morning that he went to cat 1.

[tkmorris]

2. No, not at all

For the very simple reason that the satellite in question is still operational. Proenza's argument was that the satellite should be replaced because the data it provided was invaluable for storm tracking. The satellite is at the end of it's projected lifespan, and may fail at any time.

A replacement satellite would not have provided BETTER data, it simply would have continued to supply what the current one does. Furthermore, it's data is not useful for intensity forecasts, better data by far is provided by recon flights.

I would like to see the sat replaced, but I have to admit that from whatever knowledge I have been able to gather from being a longtime tropical storm geek that we really won't miss it much. Once a storm passes 50W in longitude it is close enough for regular recon flights and they provide superior data anyway.

[Igel]

4. The surprise was how quickly the intensity developed.

It wasn't the case that they weren't aware of its intensity. They were surprised that it continued to become more intense.

It wasn't a lack of data. Well, probably. It was a fault in the predictive capacity of the models. GIGO.