Do you know who was the frontrunner at this point in the 04 election cycle?

[jobycom]

I don't, but according to Molly Ivins, it was John Kerry.

http://web.archive.org/web/20030724115024/http://www.progressive.org/aug03/ivin0803.html

John Kerry is in the unfortunate position of being the frontrunner, which you would not wish on your worst enemy. My early take on Kerry was that he has gravitas--sumbitch about bent over double with gravitas--but that he has no Elvis. Minus-zero on the Elvis Scale was my first read. No point in nominating some good and worthy candidate, like Fritz Mondale or Michael Dukakis, if they got no Elvis. The object is to get these people elected. Can't get elected without a soupçon of Elvis. Happily, Kerry seems to have started to do what he most needs to do, which is lighten up a bit. According to a report in Slate, Kerry in Iowa is capable of humor, self-effacement, sarcasm, and other helpful attitudes. Plus, at the end of the deal, he got on a motorcycle and raised an eyebrow before gunning the hog on down the road. A bike?! Now we're talking Elvis.

----------

Miss you, Molly.

[Redneck Socialist]

1. At four months out I'm pretty sure Dean was cruising to an easy victory

In fact I'm pretty sure his poll numbers were pretty much what Hillary's are today.

[jobycom]

2. Can you find the poll numbers? Most people seem to believe

what they want to believe.

Ivins wrote that in August of 03. So she thought Kerry was the frontrunner, even though she was a Dean supporter.

[Redneck Socialist]

4. There was a post on it a while back.

Let me do a little searching and see what I can turn up. Molly Ivin's pen is probably a more reliable source than my memory, but I seem to recall Dean polling pretty well up until just before the voting actually started.

[Telly Savalas]

12. The polls pointed to Lieberman

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem2.htm

[stillcool]

3. until the 'Dean-scream'...

I hate the media...

[jobycom]

13. The Dean Scream came after he had finished 3rd, and plummeted in the polls

The media is responsible for a lot of things, but Dean fell all on his own.

[Trisket-Bisket]

9. There is no comparison.

Clinton is a winner. Dean was at best a disappointment.

[Mass]

5. Here are polls from August Sept

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem2.htm

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

They show that Dean took the lead in September, more or less. Kerry was never the frontrunner in the polls.

[Unbowed]

6. I don't think he was. Molly must have been somewhat prescient.

She was right about the Elvis though. Kerry does seem to have something that draws the ladies. Lucky bastard.

[Recursion]

7. He was a "front runner" in the sense of "blessed by the powers that be"

Kerry was clearly who the DNC wanted to run.

[Unbowed]

8. The people of Iowa and NH wanted Kerry.

The DNC had little to say in the matter. Afterward, they supported him in a fashion, a luke warm fashion. All the while, throughout the ranks echoed the whisper, "-----2008."

IF the DNC really wanted Kerry, he'd be in the White House right now.

[sandnsea]

10. No

Remember who ran the DNC at the time. They did take Dean out, but not for John Kerry.

[Bitwit1234]

11. They hadn't declared yet

[Patsy Stone]

14. In September of 2003

Dean had raised the most money: http://www.fec.gov/press/bkgnd/pres_cf/atm0930/presreceiptsq32003.pdf
Edwards had just announced on September 15th, 2003.

There are some very interesting polls here, all the way down at the bottom for the earliest.
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:AlxZSJWAQpwJ:www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm+presidential+candidates+polls+september+2003&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

Joe Lieberman was number one in one of them, Hillary (I guess this is when they were floating her name for '04) was number one in one of them, and Wes Clark was number one in another.