How can the US attack Iran? Even if the US does "shock and awe part 2"

[raccoon]

(requiring much less manpower than an invasion on the ground), where will the troops come from to follow up?

[Jim__]

1. If they do it, it will be an air and sea (artillery) attack.

No ground forces. They don't have them.

The implications of this are terrible. The attack would have to completely wipe out the Iranian military, particularly their ground forces, so that they couldn't retaliate in Iraq. Any attack that could completely wipe out the Iranian military would be a devastating attack, probably killing millions. Only an insane man would try this.

[PDJane]

2. As I understand it, the prevailing theory

Is that there won't be a war...it's supposed to be a salutory lesson. Go in, bomb the hell out of the place, knock out the research stations, kill lots of people, and the Iranians will fall into line, realizing that the US is the best. Or something like that.

It won't be a war, y'see.


I think someone should take away the crystal ball.

[peace13]

3. George has a stick and when he sees a hornets nest

you know what can happen. My guess is that those wayward nukes were headed east eventually. Which brings to mind, do we know where they ended up? Peace, Kim

[OHdem10]

4. Some say Israel will actually do the strike,, but the Iranians

will still "blame the American Government."

IMO, everyone should settle down and think of consequence,
intended and unintended.

If we strike first or are perceived as striking Irna, we only
stir up more Terrorists Groups and encourage Suicide Bombing
within our own country. Do we wish to force Hezbeloh Hamas
and other non-AlQaeda Groups to either join AlQaeda or start
their own Jihad against the US???

Until now Hamas was not connected with Iran. We have forced
them there by Sanctions on Palestians who support or fall uner
the Hamas Group. Tehran is keeping them from starving. We have
essentially turned them over to Support Iran. Up until Hezbolah
Hamas and Other groups have kept their attacks in the ME. They
Have friends and supporters all around the world. All i am saying
is I hope everyone thinks seriously about Consequences, Intended
and Unintended.

I am no "Hate American", I love my country but I use common sense
and iconize or lionize no one. Leaders are human beings and
are capable of grave errors just like any other citizen.
The Founding Fathers warned us or our responsibilty as citizens
to always maintain a certain amount skepticism. In other words
question any leader. " We have given you a Republic, if you
can keep it".

[blondeatlast]

8. "Some say..." Please, for the love of honest and informed debate, cite the

"some."

FAUX News chicanery doesn't play well here.

[OHdem10]

10. This is not Faux News chicanery. Logic and understanding

of the Middle East inform my conclusions.

Faux News would have a heyday with my conclusion and call
me a Hate America Democrat.

They would accuse me of supporting the Terrorists.

After all they have beating the Drums for War with Iran for
Months.

[EFerrari]

14. Wasn't there a Newsweek article that reported this week

Deadeye Dick wanted Israel to provoke Iran so the US could then step in? I found this Reuters link on the story, anyway.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070923/pl_nm/usa_iran_cheney_dc_1

[Orsino]

5. Easy. Commit an act of war...

...and present Congress with a fait accompli. The blanket authorization for the use of military force is still in place, so Congress will give them anything they want.

[tuckessee]

6. They only need enough troops to glom the oilfields.

The US war aims will probably be the same as Hussein's war aims in 1980. Take the oil fields below the Zagros Mtns. & hope for regime change in Tehran.

Masssive shock & awe nationwide combined with a blitzkrieg attack across the Shatt al-Arab. The US can use tactical nukes in lieu of manpower to seal off the mountain passes and prevent Iran from pouring reinforcements into the battlefield.

The Iraqis used ten divisions in the 1980 invasion. I'm guessing, but that might be about 100,000 to 140,000 men. The US will assume that since they are better trained & equipped than the Iraqis it can be done with the same or less.

As far as what it will take to occupy the area after the invasion, well, the US military has shown they can't think that far ahead.

[Beausoleil]

16. "the US military has shown they can't think that far ahead"

Well, when the military shows that they can think that far ahead, a general loses his job and a sycophant takes his place.

[raccoon]

7. And the other runners-up for superpower will be OK with this?

I don't think so.

At the very least, they'll be thinking that the US must be stopped.

[Flabbergasted]

9. I wonder what France's role will be?

[tuckessee]

11. I wonder also.

Their military contribution is likely to be limited due to logistics & domestic politics.

However, France has considerable pull in the Arab world so I think her main role will be on the diplomatic front.

[Flabbergasted]

13. There is also the possibility of opposition groups within Iran.

But the real issue is the destability this would cause in the region. The World War could likely happen by forcing countries into the mix.

[Selatius]

12. No troops. Massive aerial bombardment campaign instead.

If troops are used, they will be small in number, most likely commando raids.

[Orrin_73]

15. The US will eventually win a war with Iran

but the war will also bring the US down. It will be the end of the good ole USA. Iran has 75 million inhabitants thats 4 times as much as Iraqi population. The US needs at least 1.0-1.5 million men for a war with Iran.

[Strelnikov_]

17. Attack is easy. 'Winning' is a whole other matter

All data 2005.

- The Persian Gulf represents nearly 50% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The vast majority of this resource passes through 6 to 8 major facilities (one facility in KSA alone processes 60% of its petroleum).

- If Iran is attacked in such a way as to threaten the continuity of the regime, they will use their substantial missile inventory in taking out these facilities (I do not believe they will target Israel, as it would have no strategic purpose, whereas targeting the gulf energy infrastructure would strike a mortal blow against the attacking western economies, in particular the US, as I discuss below).

- The US imports ~ 12.4 Mbbl/dy (60% of total consumption) of petroleum which represents around 29% of the worlds petroleum export market.

- The next largest petroleum importers (Japan 5.2, China 3.1, Germany 2.4, South Korea 2.2, France 1.9) all have substantial dollar reserves and are significant exporters of finished goods. Basically, we will be outbid on much of what remains of the worlds petroleum export market post attack, as these countries use their export capacity in finished goods to purchase petroleum from Russia, Nigeria, Norway, and Venezuela.

- In the weeks following destruction of the Persian Gulf oil export market, the US will probably see 2/3rds of its imports sold to higher bidders, leaving us with about 60% of the petroleum supply we had pre-attack.

- Approx. 42% of US petroleum is used for personal transport, 22% for commercial transport (trucks that carry food to the stores, etc.). I will leave it to the reader as to the impact a nearly overnight loss of 40% of the US petroleum supply will have to the economy (not to mention the impact due to the collapse of the petrodollar system).

- Russia, India and China will take a pass. Russia stands to make a fortune. And if all the gulf petroleum goes off line, they become the worlds sole energy superpower. China and India will dig in (as they consume much less petroleum), weather the storm, and emerge in a position to snap up all those production contracts that will no longer go to US multinationals for rebuilding the gulf.

- In conclusion, Iran is not toothless. We can physically destroy the country of Iran. There is a good chance they can destroy our economy and begin the process of petrocollapse, ultimately leading to the destruction of a greatly weakened US in a few decades.

So, who wins?

He who can destroy a thing, controls a thing - Muah'dib

My life fades, the vision dims, all that remains are memories. I remember a time of chaos. Ruined dreams, this wasted land. But most of all, I remember the Road Warrior. The man we called Max.

To understand who he was you have to go back to another time. When the world was powered by the black fuel, and the deserts sprouted great cities of pipe and steel.

Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel they were nothing. They had built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered, and stopped. Their leaders talked, and talked, and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear.

Men began to feed on men. On the roads it was a white line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage, would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice.

And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed, men like Max, the warrior Max. In the roar of an engine he lost everything. He became a shell of a man, a burnt-out desolate man. A man haunted by the demons in his past. A man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again.

Opening Dialog, “The Road Warrior”, 1981

A movie that seems more prescient every day.


++++++++++++++=

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region


Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0


Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0