(Note, included the entire Conclusion section as is, was from a PDF but linked via tinurl to an HTML version of it)
--Paper Date, May 2004
CONCLUSIONS
During a recent Meet the Press interview, Senator Hillary Clinton of New York was asked
by the moderator Tim Russert about her recent trip to Afghanistan and if she believed Osama
Bin Laden was still alive and in the region.
Her response:
I believe he is alive and I believe he is in the region. I’m glad you turned to
Afghanistan, because as, you know, one young soldier said to me, “Welcome to
the front lines in the war against terrorism,” we have forgotten that that’s where
those horrible attacks against us were planned and implemented from.
Russert’s follow-up question: “Will we get bin Laden?” Clinton’s answer:
We better. We better, because the failure to get him fuels the kind of myth of
fundamentalism and extremism and serves as a recruiting tool for people who
would wish us ill.
A counter to this line of thought comes from the magazine Newsweek:
It’s difficult to know where or how Osama bin Laden fits in...The CIA seems to
believe that bin Laden and Zawahiri are either on the Afghan-Pakistani border or
in a teeming Pakistani city like Karachi,
while some Pentagon officials are
intrigued by hints that bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri may be hiding in Iran. Last
week Marine General Peter Pace, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told
reporters that “bin Laden has taken himself out of the picture.”
I agree with Senator Clinton. Even if Bin Laden has taken himself out of the picture, we
need to take a lesson from the ancient Romans who pursued the leaders of a Jewish revolt to
Massada in Palestine with the thought “we are coming after you and will get you sooner or
later.”
This may serve as a deterrent for others who would wish us ill.
In this paper I have postulated the center of gravity for Al Qaeda as Osama Bin Laden and
his brand of Islamist extremism. In our war against terrorism, an analysis of COG candidates
with the respective capabilities, requirements, and vulnerabilities all point to Al Qaeda’s
leadership and ideology as the center of gravity at the strategic level. Eliminating Bin Laden will
lead to the unraveling of his movement because his followers will be demoralized from the loss
of a leader of almost mythical proportions. It will take patience, timing, and skill – the
characteristics of a hawk described by Sun Tzu so long ago to break the body of its prey – and
today that hawk is the American Eagle and his prey is Osama Bin Laden.
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