Cordesman warns against partitioning Iraq

[babylonsister]

Analyst warns against partitioning Iraq

By BARRY SCHWEID, AP Diplomatic Writer Thu Oct 11, 3:16 AM ET

WASHINGTON - Limiting the power of Iraq's central government and giving more control to ethnically divided regions might lead to large-scale violence and intervention by neighboring countries, an analyst says.

Such programs sometimes are federalism or "soft partition." Their adoption could mean widespread bloodletting and "local atrocities seem all too likely," according to Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Political instability could ensue and Iraq's economic development could be crippled, said Cordesman, a former director of intelligence assessment at the Pentagon.

Iran and others would try to exploit Iraq's weakness and divisions, he wrote in a report released Wednesday. He added that Iraq is divided along sectarian and ethnic lines in many areas by the force of extremists. The Kurds are the only faction that shows major popular support for any formal effort at partition.

more...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071011/ap_on_go_ot/us_iraq_federalism

[papau]

1. Smart but RW fellow - Cordesman and Ikle are the stars of CSIS - run by a sorta-Dem Sam Nunn

Prior to joining CSIS in 1988, Fred Iklé was Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the Ronald Reagan administration. Cordesman generated controversy when he challenged a study in The Lancet, a British medical journal, which concluded in 2006 that 600,000 Iraqis had been killed in the war, saying that he believed the Multi-National Force - Iraq (MNF-I) numbers, which is the military command, led by the United States if anyone has forgot that fact, that says the level of violence is not that high based on the way they count.

[babylonsister]

2. I don't know about r/w, but yes, smart. I don't think he's saying this

to earn any political capital.

[papau]

4. I don't believe the left believes the Bush Iraq General du jour PR releases - so "strong defense" is

obviously where he and Nunn are at - and he has background and expertise -but RW is short hand for not being critical enough of Gov lies.

He is critical of the Iraq war - so perhaps that is a plus

and has said we lose in Afghanistan without more resources being put in the area - which seems obvious.

[MADem]

5. Precisely.

I got a kick out of his "might lead to."

It's highly likely, at least in the short term. But then, what else is new?

[The2ndWheel]

3. It'll be difficult for a central government to form without war

Unless we just put up another dictator.

It's either war to stamp out diversity, allowing whoever wins to establish a monopoly on violence, or a dictator who can hold factions together through force. Iraq, like any other state, won't exist any other way.