Peak Petroleum and Public Health - Journal of American Medical Association

[Subdivisions]

by Howard Frumkin, MD, DrPH; Jeremy Hess, MD, MPH; Stephen Vindigni, MPH

...A global Hubbert peak is inevitable, but its timing has been the subject of debate. Hubbert predicted the peak would occur between 1996 and 2006. <1> Most current estimates place the peak before 2030 (many before 2010), and some authorities believe that it is occurring now. <2> The varied estimates reflect scientific uncertainty in measuring petroleum reserves, lack of standard protocols for reporting, and incentives for governments and private firms not to report their reserves accurately. <3-4> Advances in petroleum extraction technologies, such as high-pressure steam extraction, and techniques that allow production from unconventional sources such as tar sands and oil shale, have increased recoverable reserves, modestly delaying the peak. Nevertheless, the peak is not far off.

...An extensive literature, ranging from the apocalyptic to the reassuring, has explored various scenarios and offered wide-ranging solutions. <5- 8> However, little of this literature addresses the implications of peak petroleum for health.

-snip-

At some point early in the 21st century, likely well before mid-century, petroleum production will peak and begin to decline. This will increase prices for petroleum and for the many goods and services that require petroleum for their production and transport. This transition will have far-reaching effects across society. Within the health sector, direct and indirect effects will be felt on medical supplies and equipment, transportation, energy, and food. Health professionals need to anticipate, prepare for, reduce, and adapt to petroleum scarcity to protect public health in coming decades.

http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/extract/298/14/1688">JAMA Excerpt (Subcription required for entire article)

http://energybulletin.net/35580.html">EnergyBulletin.net has the entire article.

The candor with which the subject of peak oil is discussed by The Journal of the American Medical Association and the matter-of-fact tone, almost as if Peak Oil were common knowledge, is absolutely astounding. And profoundly important given the seriousness and the stature of this professional trade publication.

Mods please allow this thread here in GD as I believe, as apparently does JAMA, that this will become the defining event of the next 20 years.

[Solon]

1. Its amazing what the difference of as little as 5 years makes...

Hubbert Peak advocates were considered nuts probably just 5 years ago, now, the debate is, for all intents and purposes, over, the only uncertainties left have to do with the timing of the peak, not whether it will happen at all, in addition to how drastic it will affect our lives.

[kineneb]

2. having been around hospitals ('way too much) recently

I have wondered what will happen when petroleum becomes less abundant.

Hubby is on dialysis, and one can simply not imagine the amount of medical waste from each visit; and he goes to the clinic three times each week. Great quantities of plastic tubing get used and then thrown away, as they cannot be reused- there is no way to guarantee complete cleaning. There is also lots of paper waste produced.

I have also thought about all the bandaging used in hospitals. Each piece is individually wrapped, usually with plastic and sometimes paper.

Modern medicine is heavily dependant on petroleum products for delivery of care. The AMA is right to be concerned. 50-75% of their supplies are going to have to be re-engineered to use other materials.