If You Want To See A Landslide, You'll Need To Root For $100+/Barrel Oil

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

If you want what's ultimately best for this country, especially in the long term, you will be glad that oil is approaching $100/barrel.

It will be painful. It will potentially cripple this country economically and in terms of worldwide stature. Many will suffer.

But by 13 months from now, you will see such a massive defection from the repubs, that they'll have to CHEAT and commit FRAUD, just to prevent a 100% sweep in practically every election.

Instead of looking up the barrel of a 20 TON HUMMER or SUV, you'll be able smile as you drive by in your 30 mile/gallon sedan.

It will throw the housing market into further turmoil. Builders will be paying much more to get necessary items for putting up their new developments. It would limit travel and tourism from within the country. It would cause prices of many items, especially food, to increase substantially. It would cause the Fed to consider tanking the $, to contain what would be a crisis at the gas station.

And through it all, would be King george. STAYING THE COURSE. With an incompetent and wimpy congress. People would be disgusted, and perhaps Democrats would receive some backlash for their inadequacy. But repubs would suffer the most. And they, along with what would be considered THE WORST PRESIDENT OF ALL TIME, will get the blame for the Depression we'll suffer through for perhaps 5-10 years. Much would depend upon what level oil prices stayed at, but $100/barrel will certainly bring us into a new age.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. One small question though

How do the rest of us "little people" survive such a period of financial disaster? We're going to lose money with the rest of 'em.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

10. I Said It Would Be Painful

Many WILL Suffer. Democrats & repubs alike.

I'm just saying that ultimately, it will destroy the repub party for years and years to come.

But it won't be easy. Only we will be the ones to have seen it coming.

[Tesha]

16. You understand that $100/bbl oil is inevitable, right?

> How do the rest of us "little people" survive such a
> period of financial disaster?

You understand that $100/bbl oil is inevitable, right?
It's really just a question of "how soon"?

We could force the adjustment right now by imposing
taxes that bringthe price up to that, and use those
tax revenues to help society adapt more quickly. Or
we could continue to do nothing and the "invisible
hand of the market" will raise the price of oil to
$100/barrel a little more slowly and with a lot more
oil company profits.

But the price rise is inevitable.

(It's also largely fostered by the weakening of the
Dollar. The price rise in Euro terms hasn't been
nearly as dramatic.)

Tesha

[Fovea]

23. When de Turks go marchin in

When de Turks go marchin in...
Well I want to see those numbers.
When de Turks go marchin in.

[Tesha]

30. No kidding. :-( (NT)

[The Straight Story]

2. And, um, it will magically go down when we win how? (nt)

[MindPilot]

3. It will also make new technologies like thermal depolymerization

commercially viable

[depakid]

4. "Depression we'll suffer through for perhaps 5-10 years."

Might be wise to start thinking longer term than that.

[robinlynne]

5. but don't forget, the price at the pumps always goes down at election time.

[catmandu57]

6. At 86.00 a barrel now

It won't be long before we break 100.00. We have no control over the price of oil now, lest it be conservation and so far the american public has said the hell with that. I think you'de better revise your number upwards, say to the 125.00 and higher range.
I hate to see people hurt, but if pain is the only thing that will get the message across we just as well do it.

[Marrah_G]

7. Screw that.

Really No... Screw any of you wishing for 100.00 per gallon.

It costs me 266.00 for 100 gallons of heating oil. Less then half a tank. I keep the thermostat at 60 to keep the pipes from freezing.

I barely make it every month, raising 3 teenagers, the price of food and heat and gas rises every motherfucking time the cost of a barrel goes up.

Wages stay the same, Cost of living goes up and up and up. Basic food...WAY up. Gas...WAY up.

As it stand now we eat way to much hot dogs, pasta+sauce and mac&cheese because I am ashamed to say it is often all I can afford and it's still days away from the next paycheck.

Those of you wishing for these hikes in price are truly wishing to see myself and my children both cold and hungry.

LITERALLY.

So screw you. Obviously YOU won't be the one suffering painfully, or watching your children suffer. If you were, you would never post this shit.

[Bigmack]

13. That's the problem, isn't it?

In the long run people will be better off if the Dems control things. Problem is... people don't eat (or heat their houses) in the long run. They need that stuff every day!

This winter is going to be tough on everybody. Hang in.

[Marrah_G]

18. I hate sounding so hysterical

But we went without heat for a few days here and there last winter. I am probably looking at many more this winter.

For some people this is something distant from themselves. They might have to tighten their belts a little.

For me and my 3 children and many more like us....this is life and death. We are balancing on the edge and one little push will send us over.

For me this is a terrifying concern I wake up with every day and go to sleep with every night.

[ecstatic]

8. Is there anything the Dem majority can do now

I don't think its worth crippling lower income families just to prove a point. If there's something that can be done NOW, then it needs to be done. No excuses.

[Selatius]

11. Dems will cripple lower-income families by simply doing nothing.

Big programs like the New Deal were usually only borne after "it's too late" for many lower-income families. By that point, they're literally screaming at the government to move, and only then does it move. The activists and grassroots movement in the street are always, always ahead of the government and ahead of entrenched political parties. They play catch-up to avoid being dislodged from power.

[Tesha]

19. Raise CAFE standards immediately. Put back the big tax breaks for...

> Is there anything the Dem majority can do now?

Raise CAFE standards immediately. Put back the big tax breaks
for hybrid cars and home efficiency improvements. REPEAL the
ridiculous tax breaks that essentially give certain people
free Hummers.

Take the military spending from Iraq and devote it to energy
efficiency improvements here at home.

Doubtless there are other steps.

Tesha

[karynnj]

28. The energy bill stuck in conference does raise the CAFE stds for the first time in a couple decades

Dragging their feet on the conferences between the Senate and House are one of the three main way the Republicans are blocking everything.

They're:
- Requiring 60 votes for everything in the Senate (ie filibustering everything)
- Slowing the conferences
- Bush vetoes.

[Tesha]

29. And our folks should be on TV every day talking about this. (NT)

[karynnj]

46. The only one I heard speaking of this was Kerry

in various blog posts, in the Senate and usually whenever the topic is close on TV. That was part of his explanation of "roadblock Republicans". It is not just the energy bill, it is everything that the Republicans were doing. Kerry spoke of this most over in late July - hoping that would be the talking points of the summer recess - instead, the issue was the FISA bill and how many Democrats supported it.

The Presidential candidates are the ones with the biggest microphones now - they should be pushed to speak of this - because it is the only possible counter to the Republican endorsed theme that the Democrats are doing nothing. Where's Hillary on this?

[Tesha]

47. And they, of course, are running to the center.

> The Presidential candidates are the ones with the biggest
> microphones now - they should be pushed to speak of this...

And they, of course, are running to the center, trying to
avoid saying *ANYTHING* of substance because everyone
knows that telling pretty lies gets you elected while
telling ugly truths gets you Mondaled.

Tesha

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

24. This Dem "majority?".....Nope, NOTHING

Not A Single Thing is going to change within the next 15 months, and if it does, you can bet it will be what's good for the Upper 10%, and NOT The Lower 90%.

Anyone want a bridge?

[krispos42]

9. Oh, good. Now I feel justified in my new Suburban

I like to drive around town in first gear so I don't use the brakes or have to wait for that annoying downshifts when I need a surge of power.

On the highway, I do about 85 mph in second. Same reason, plus I love the roar of the engine.

In the wintertime, I never turn it off. I hate getting into a cold car. I just leave it idling with the heat on, and lock the doors. I turn it on in mid-November and turn it off again in mid-April.

In the summertime, I leave it running, too. Hate getting into a hot and humid car, so I just leave it running with the A/C in. I start it up in mid-June and don't turn it off again until mid-September.

Nice to see my habits are helping Democrats win!

I don't know what I'll do if I get remarried, though. Me, my kid, and a wife? I'd need something bigger than my teeny Suburban!

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

12. The Dam Has To Break!

Sorry, but if you want ultimately fulfillment, it ain't gonna be easy.

All I'm saying, is that if you are that strongly against the repubs, and EVERYTHING THEY STAND FOR, then this is your "Perfect Storm."

Iraq, Katrina, Sub-Prime....all those will pale in comparison to an economic meltdown, caused by $5/gallon gas. Heck, I'm not even sure I have enough faith in the American people for that to do the trick. But if anything will, this is it.

And if the price is at $110, lowering it to $90/barrel the weeks before the election isn't going to help the sour mood this country will have ingrained in them by then.

[Javaman]

14. No need to root, it will happen.

it's going to be one cold winter for many folks.

[spanone]

15. won't matter....100 a barrel is probably weeks away and americans won't give a shit imho

[catmandu57]

22. Exactly

We'll keep on driving eighty miles an hour and maybe some people will get something more sensible ti drive, but for the most part people will say sucks to be you and keep on.

[Clark2008]

17. I'm sorry - I'm not going to root for something that will hurt and kill

the poor and middle class.

If we had better statesmen within the Dem Party - those who listen to the people and not the corporations - then we wouldn't have to "root for" disaster.

[Marrah_G]

21. Thank you

Seeing DUers "rooting" for this is incredibly hurtful. The one group I would hope would always be rooting for the working poor was DU. Apparently not all of DU, since some are cheering on and wanting to hasten the destruction of my family.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

26. You Do Realize That We FUCK The Next Generation Daily

No, I have little sympathy anymore. I'm sick and tired of the repub party and everything that it stands for.

Apparently even the 2006 election didn't do the trick. The fact there is 25%-30% support of this "King" makes me want to PUKE. Fuck economic pain! I'm sick and tired of this Rah, Rah, Rah attitude that's infected this country.

You're complaining about widespread economic pain? What about the next generation? Polluting the environment, because we don't give 2 shits about what we drive? We're the only country in the world, where bigger and badder GAS GUZZLERS are Desired! We BORROW & SPEND, beyond our means. Some people are genuinely troubled, and that's sad. But if you think the status quo is your answer, then you're naive.

We're bankrupting the future. Social Security for people under the age of 50? Probably a fantasy at this point. But who cares. So long as we maintain the lower class and the poverty population.

WAKE THE FUCK UP. With or without $100 oil, we're in DEEP DEEP KAKA. Maybe some pain will help people realize the reason, even if it means most of us have to cut back on our excess ways.

[Marrah_G]

27. ~self-delete~

It's just not worth it.

[Tesha]

31. As I said above (to another poster)...

You understand that $100/bbl oil is inevitable, right?
It's just a question of when.

And as someone else reminded me, when the Turks decide
to move against the Kurds, $100/bbl oil will probably
be a reality. Or the day we strike Iran. Or the day
Israel strikes Iran. Or just on a whim by the major
oil companies.

Anyway, we all will have to deal with it Real Soon Now.

Tesha

[Marrah_G]

34. Is dealing with the inevitale the same as cheering it on and hoping it comes sooner?

I would hope DUers would be hoping and working towards a solution that didn't include freezing and starving my kids. It's pretty damn hard NOT to take that personally.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

38. Freezing & Starving?

If you're in such a precarious spot, that you're concerned about freezing due to lack of heat all the time, or the ability to buy food and water, then you have bigger problems, and perhaps you should be doing something other than posting on a message board.

Seriously, if you are that close to complete disaster, then looking for this country or it's government to save you anytime soon, then you're truly in bad shape. We'll be "staying the course," Thank You, for at least the next 15 months, which is why we're facing this crisis to begin with.

If I were in your position, I'd start planning now, instead of expecting a change for the better, which ain't on the horizon. Whether I wish it on the country or not, it's inevitible, as some others have already pointed out.

[Marrah_G]

41. Thank you for understanding the struggles of the working poor

Your compassion is over- whelming.

Yes, freezing and starving. That is what happens when there isn't enough money for everything. That's what happens when you make too much for aid and just barely enough to keep your head above water.

I work every day, I care for 3 kids on my own, I do everything I can to save money and yes I am going to need to do ever more in the coming years to try and cut costs.

The last thing I expected were posts like this on DU.

[Tesha]

39. The outcome will be the same, cheered-on or not. :-( (NT)

[Marrah_G]

42. Yes but seeing it cheered on HERE sucks

Having people actually wanting it to happen SUCKS. Being told it's my own fault and I ought to just work harder seems like something off one of those "other" boards. Having someone telling me that since we are struggling I shouldn't be posting on DU is just bizarre.

[book_worm]

20. I don't root for it but I accept that it is probably going to happen.

[karynnj]

25. It might not be a landslide in the direction you want

I would not bet on the altruism of the American population if faced with a rapid decline in the standard of living. You are correct that the correct response to the looming scarcity of oil is to find substitutes and to use what we do more efficiently. Initiating a program like this was a key element in Kerry's 2004 platform. He argued that it should be not not just because of global warming, but for national security (so we depend less on an unstable middle east), cleaner air and water and getting the good jobs that come from creating these technologies and products from them. I assume every Democratic and some Republican candidates will have similar planks. (I would assume that Gore, who did some advertisements on global warming did this too - but I can't find his 2000 comments - though I'm sure they exist.)

In a rational time, that is the prudent forward looking would be something a President could get support for once the looming threat was believed. (Before that, it would be impossible to get people to put considerable current money into something in the future that may not be needed.) I liked Kerry's argument that this had advantages - even without considering global warming or oil running out - and quoting someone as saying that the stone age did not end when they ran out of stones, but when they developed better technologies.

In the scenario you paint, there is what I think is a 25% increase in the cost of oil. This means that the cost of heating, air conditioning, and travel and the cost of all items that must be transported will increase significantly. It would be as if everyone got a significant cut in pay.

Now, assume one party is saying that they will "preserve American interests in the middle east" (meaning assure the US gets the oil at good prices) and sounding aggressive and the other is seen as less likely to stomach that type of action - who wins? In a time of panic, it is not always the good who win. (In fact, even in 2004, there were some who voted for Bush because they knew he would do unethical things that the moral Kerry wouldn't - and they thought were needed. I remember my conversation with one born again woman, living very near the poverty level, who gives her church 1/10th of her earnings and is one of the people most likely to help others when she can, around the time of the election. I mentioned that Bush did not dispute Kerry's comment in the first debate that Bush was establishing permanent bases. Her reaction was that given "all we had given" we deserved it.

Also, if things shift to where the middle east/oil, Iraq, Iran become issues - it might resuscitate McCain's campaign. All of our top three are short on military and foreign policy experience, compared to McCain. (Unless you give HRC all BC's experience. Over the last 4 years, she has not been a key voice for the Democrats on Iraq.)

[Tesha]

33. I'm sorta hoping it foments the breakup of these "United" States...

I'm sorta hoping it foments the breakup of these
"United" States into a set of several more-rational
smaller countries and, unfortunately, one or two
Jesuslands (Dixie and the Midwest, perhaps in
alliance, perhaps not). Let's just hope enough
of the nukes end up under the control of the
rational countries to fend off the inevitable
attacks by Jesusland.

Tesha

[Marrah_G]

36. I have zero doubt that that will happen

I'm pretty sure I could draw an accurate map of the changes.

[aikoaiko]

32. I'm shifting my retirement portfolio to include more energy.

:)

[Marrah_G]

37. I'm trying to shift my budget to include more energy

There is nothing left for retirement ... maybe once the kids are out on their own I can manage to save something.

[Individualist]

35. Nuts!

I don't root for the death of innocents. If oil goes to $100 a barrel, many people will either starve or freeze to death. The wealthy would survive, the poor would die, and who will the wealthy vote for? I think you already know the answer to that one.

[hogwyld]

40. I can guarantee that it won't stop there

With the crashing dollar, and the arrival of peak oil, I can see $200 bbl in the next 5 - 10 years. Time to move to warmer climes, and within walking/biking distance of work. If there's any work left here in the U.S.

[toddaa]

43. Never predict the future when you are ignorant of the past

Economic instability has a tendency to lead to authoritarian despotism. How do you think Mussolini and Franco came to power? Because people were happy? Think again.

[MadHound]

44. That's one fucking despicable sentiment there.

Gee, wishing that people have to suffer economic hardship all so that your party can win? Fuck, and you call yourself a liberal, progressive, or even a Democrat? What happened to your sense of compassion? What happened to putting the people first? I guess all that disappeared in this overarching desire to put party ahead of the people. Fucking despicable:grr:

[BurningDog]

45. Great Idea!!!

An economic disaster is always the enemy of fascism. Think there'll be a world war to pull us out of this one too?