WTF: MSNBC Online Poll: Gore 54% - Hillary 9.6% (166, 699) votes....

[Junkdrawer]

On Edit: Link to MSNBC Poll:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21264312

And yet every "credible" "scientific" poll has it Hillary 40%, Gore 15% or something like that.

Now, there was a sister question to the MSNBC poll:

Should Al Gore run? 59% Yes, 37% No.

That's close to the "scientific" polls:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hDeUWlQBWVo-FfWVbMcLi-fldCxQD8SADGI82

Why the big differences in the selection polls? And if the answer is that online polls select for those who read political articles, doesn't that say that there's a lot of confusion/name recognition in the "scientific" polls?

Again,

:wtf:

[LSparkle]

1. For once, my "WTF" has a smiley face on it ...

GREAT news for President Gore!

[rinsd]

2. Because it is not random sample selection.

The poll isn't selecting the sample, the sampelis selecting itself. Add to it that this poll may have been reported with voting encouraged by certain websites and you have a fairly useless poll.

It also doesn't account for race/age/income/etc as most polls do to properly weight them, extrapolating results from a sample of say a 1000 to reflect public opinion.

[Rhythm and Blue]

7. Right. If online polls meant half a rat's shit,

Ron Paul would be the next President of the United States.

[BlueJazz]

8. True n/t

[Junkdrawer]

11. Yeah, but if Hillary voters actually outnumber Gore voters 3 to 1...

Wouldn't you expect different results than 54 to 9.6, even on an online poll - especially with 160,000+ votes. I mean if it was a dead heat online, then yeah...but this is better that 5 to 1 against Hillary.

[rinsd]

12. Which should tell be a huge signal that the poll is worthless.

[Bicoastal]

3. There's a huge disparity between "Should he run?" and "Will he win?"

Probably because way more people are voting in the latter polls, and the former is weighed down by the people who (like us) will drop everything in to give Al his props.

I think lots of people think he should run, but very few think he actually will.

[Warren DeMontague]

5. I think if he runs, he wins.

The question is, will he run.

[Warren DeMontague]

4. Wow. So I guess it's not just DU that "isn't indicative" of "real Democrats"

it's this poll, too. :eyes:

I keep saying- IF Gore Gets in he will instantly be a serious fucking contender. But he's running out of time.

[Rhythm and Blue]

6. Online polls are self-selected, for people who

have an interest in reading MSNBC's political articles on the Internet, and who like to vote in online polls.

Actual polls are statistically valid. Online polls are, as the psychic-phone-lines say, "for amusement purposes only."

[BadgerLaw2010]

9. Because you can bot spam Internet polls?

[MADem]

10. Well, that's why the DU/Freep This Poll!!! exhortation is kinda meaningless.

I do think that a lot of people like the idea of Gore running, hell, I'm one of them.

But the online polls include children who cannot yet vote, young adults who have opinions but don't get their asses to the polls, people from the opposing team who vote for snark, and even foreigners who can't vote at all. And it excludes the reliable voters, like the elderly and those who are wage slaves, who don't spend all day online.

The scientific polls get names from voting lists, figure out who is a likely voter, and take it from there. They dump a shit load of the fluff ...

Of course, ya never know. Some polls are 'pushed' as well, particularly when a candidate is paying for them. The pollster, in that case, is Rosy Scenario.

[Imagevision]

13. MSNBC like CNN sold the American people on non-exixting WMD's to invade Iraq

M$M has liitle credibility these days when one simply recalls the roll they play when it's time to get to war mode.

[Spike89]

14. Why Hillary supporters don't show up online

They don't "need" to. Simple as that. You'd likely find exactly the same results with any of the declared candidates. Why in the world would Hillary or Obama, Edwards, etc. supporters spend their time taking polls exhorting those candidates to enter a race they are already in?
Another thing that makes self-selected polls so useless is fervor. Sure, it's very handy during a campaign and can help swing some undecideds, but really, if you can get 51% to "accept voting for you" and the other person can only get 49%, but each one of them is a true believer, the accepted candidate wins.
Face it, Hillary has very broad support, but I don't see tons of rabid Hillary supporters. Maybe that indicates shallow support, maybe it just means she appeals especially well to those who don't get as riled up about politics (at least this early) as we at DU do. Either way, rarely will a front runner do well in a self-selected internet poll--their supporters don't need/want to change things as much as the supporters for the fringe or unannounced candidates.

[Junkdrawer]

15. So if you frame your "qualifying questions" so that only little old ladies from Peoria...

are "likely voters" then it's Hillary in a landslide...

[Rhythm and Blue]

19. That's a fairly good representation of the most common primary voter.

Shallow, uninterested, scarcely pays attention, often votes on personalities and other nonissues, and shows up more out of a sense of duty than because they want to push for Real Societal Change. These people like Hillary Clinton. These people are likely voters.

Hillary is winning in a landslide.

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. My experience with one of the polling organizatins a couple months ago

might be part of the answer

List of candidates read, who will you for?

Edwards

Clinton you mean Clinton

No EDWARDS....

Might have been an aberration... but that to me spoke volumes

[Junkdrawer]

18. Remember who? Gallop? CNN? Zogby?

:shrug:

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. It was one of the local ones

but I turned to my husband and went WTF? After the call was over

[Rhythm and Blue]

21. Probably an incompetent worker letting his mind go a bit.

Used to hearing "Clinton" there (maybe got four HRC hits in a row), by habit put a tally in the "Clinton" field, then caught himself and tried to stammer out: "You said Clinton there, right?"

[Solar_Power]

17. Gore has my vote

Run Al!!