Because Edwards and Obama have been splitting the vote between them of those Democratic voters who oppose Hillary as the Party Nominee, polling has tended to favor Hillary. However, due to the caucus procedure in Iowa which relies heavily on 'second choice influence', Hillary could be in real trouble if Edwards and Obama supporters prefer each other's candidates as their second choice. While Iowa is unique in its caucus procedures, it is clear that a 3rd place finish by Clinton in Iowa would tighten up the race in the New Hampshire Primary just 5 days later. If you are a Clinton political strategist today, you are cringing at the thought that Obama might make a similar statement that he prefers Edwards to Clinton. Such is the much feared horror of well-managed political campaigns that can run off into a ditch in the last days before an election takes place. This is proof that the political chessmasters are playing for keeps, and they are far from powerless to influence the outcome of the Iowa caucuses and Primaries beyond.
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=A392429B2D89073234B99B280307AFA5?diaryId=2541Edwards Prefers Obama To Clinton
by: Chris Bowers
Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 21:35:11 PM EST
"Of all the attacks I have seen sop far in this nearly year-long campaign, the latest one from Edwards might be the most interesting of all. Today, John Edwards came out and said that the differences between himself and Clinton and greater than the differences between himself and Obama. Wow: (quote insert)
"The differences between Sen. Clinton (D-N.Y.) and myself are much more dramatic than the differences between Sen. Obama and myself," Edwards told reporters after receiving the endorsement of the progressive group Caucus for Priorities, which seeks a reallocation of defense dollars into social programs."
"Down the line," Edwards said, on issues such as "What we would do in Iraq? What we should be doing about Iran. What we should be doing about corrupting influences in Washington and a broken system, (there are) really big differences between Sen. Clinton and myself."
Iowa is very close, so close that even a minor deal like the one Edwards and Kucinich made in 2004 could swing the state. Even leaving potential caucus-day deals aside, if both Edwards and Obama were to start attacking Clinton instead of each other, or at least if they were to start attacking Clinton more than they were attacking each other, then Clinton would be in real trouble in Iowa. For Edwards to come out and basically say that he prefers Obama to Clinton is one of the most unusual moves I have ever seen from a presidential candidate. If Obama were to say pretty much the same thing, then Clinton would be in real trouble in Iowa. Not only would she face attacks on several fronts, but it could also exacerbate her problem as a second place choice, where she already finds herself in third.
Edwards had some criticism of Obama in that speech as well, but this basically amounts to a direct anti-Clinton assault. If Obama reciprocates, this could easily change the campaign."
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