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So why were the NH exit polls wrong?

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DaveJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:29 AM
Original message
So why were the NH exit polls wrong?
I understand the poll prior to the election may have been off due to http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-kuo/obama-polls-and-race_b_80574.html:URL">race-gap polling (ie: respondents LYING), but does this also explain the exit polls?

Or is it possible that my theory is correct, that younger more enthusiastic Obama supporters were more attracted to pollsters and vice versa??

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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:30 AM
Response to Original message
1. I thought the exit polls were right
:shrug:
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. That's my understanding. That's why the networks weren't calling the Dem race.
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Frances Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. The CNN exit polls were right according to another thread
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robbedvoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
4. They weren't. Earlier polls were wrong because their sample didn't have 57% women
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cynatnite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:32 AM
Original message
The exit polls were not wrong n/t
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
5. why do you think the exit polls were wrong
when they weren't?
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DaveJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:36 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. I guess it was just a rumor
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ordinaryaveragegirl Donating Member (853 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:33 AM
Response to Original message
6. One word....
Turnout. Never underestimate the value of it in any race.
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mondo joe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:34 AM
Response to Original message
7. The exit polls WEREN'T wrong. Where'd you get that idea????
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
8. THEY WERE NOT WRONG
:nuke:
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DaveJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:37 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Okay, my bad. Sorry.....
:blush: :blush: :blush: :blush:
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #11
15. heh...sorry for shouting
It was the frustration of explaining it like 20 times this morning...so far.

Anyway...no harm, no foul.. :hug:
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:37 AM
Response to Original message
10. They weren't off:
http://bqreport.blogspot.com/2008/01/quick-thought-on-polls.html

The early exit polls showed it pretty well tied and that wasn't too far off.
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mcscajun Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
12. The exit polls were correct.
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bpeale Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
13. maybe the public want the MSM to look like the ignorant assholes they are
there's a thought
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moondust Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:42 AM
Response to Original message
14. delete
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 10:43 AM by Xap
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