The GENERAL election! Predictions?

[water]

How do you think it will play out?

I still can't decide who would be easier to beat! McCain is popular among moderates and is a war-hero but does poorly at debates, Romney is more popular among the Republican base (less among moderates, I assume) and does well at debates.

What will the issues be?

Pinning the poor economy on either one will be very difficult, considering McCain is known as a maverick and Romney was a governor. Both blame government excess for the economy right now, anyways, which will further distance them from "establishment Republicans".

The environment will be impossible to pin on McCain for obvious reasons, and I'm not sure it will be a popular enough issue for it to be able to hurt Romney. Expect the Republican Party to do their best to highlight scientist who don't think humans are largely responsible, the Earth is entering a cooling period, etc.

The wars can certainly be pinned on both candidates, as both candidates support them indefinitely! Expect the same arguments against a time-table that we've heard before. Talk about "no-surrender" coming from Romney doesn't sound very convincing, but McCain, being a war-hero, may be a different story. It will also depends on how the wars are going. If deaths are low and progress is being made, it might not be an issue, and might even be an issue for Republicans ("You want the war to fail, don't you?").

Universal health-care will make a tough sell (expect Austrian-school economists to pour out of hiding, and expect every flaw to existing taxpayer-systems to be flaunted. If the UK system doesn't clean up by then, expect to hear a lot about it). Minimum wage increases are traditionally easier (with Austrian-school arguments largely being ineffective at convincing the majority of voters). Raising taxes on higher-income earners will face the traditional arguments (which have been very effective the past 30 years).

Basically, this is won't be easy. The media, which has been very, very easy on Obama, will go into attack mode. The media has been very negative towards Hillary, so expect more of the same.

I think the hardest part of this election will be trying to pin anything on these two candidates. None of the four remaining Republicans are considered establishment Republicans, and all will be more than eager to point out how they disagree with the current state of things. If voters can be convinced that modern Republican presidents tend to govern like Bush, than their arguments will lose their edge. I don't see that argument working though, do you?

What do you see happening? The more I look at it, the more I realize this isn't in the bag.

[saltpoint]

1. My prediction is we win.

And that the 111th Congress will have more, not fewer, Democrats.

[AX10]

2. Democrats will expand their majorities in both houses.

[Mz Pip]

3. It's the Dems

to lose. Like 2000, it should have been an easy win. Florida shouldn't have even been an issue. I have learned never to underestimate the Democrat's ability to lose an election.

And yes, I am cynuical.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[NC_Nurse]

4. I think the Repubs have had their run. They didn't get much done

that helped anyone but the very rich and military contractors. They bogged us down in a war that most people regret.
They have overseen the biggest financial crisis in memory with the subprime mortgage debacle - it's not over yet.
They say the same tired shit they've been saying for years. I don't think people are buying it.
I predict we win big.

[water]

5. Those will be difficult to pin on McCain, Huckabee, Romney, or Paul, though.

I think it's foolish to take this one for granted.

[NC_Nurse]

9. Oh, I'm not taking it for granted. I'm just not letting

any of them off the hook. They're all talking tax cuts still, they're all talking about more involvement in Iraq
and potentially Iran (except Paul, who at this point at least, has a snowball's chance in Hell) and they all are pretty tied to Bush and his
policies.

[water]

10. Obama talks about using force with Iran, too!

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/281249,CST-NWS-OBAMA03.article

And what if Iraq is improving in the run-up to the election? In that case, it could be a negative for the Democrats, though it would affect Hillary the least.

[NC_Nurse]

11. So has Hillary, even more so.

I'm sure if Iraq is improving that the campaign focus will change somewhat for all of the candidates.
Anything can happen. Why worry about it?

[water]

12. I worry about it because we all know what happens when Republicans get in office...

Government explodes.

[NC_Nurse]

14. Government explodes?

That might be a GOOD thing! :P

[water]

13. And if the Democrats talk like Republicans on Iran, that can't be a campaign issue.

[dkofos]

6. dems win big, but the people still lose

[Mojambo]

7. I think Hillary is stronger against Romney and Obama is a better matchup against McCain.

But honestly, America isn't likely to put another Republican into office in a fair election.

I'd say we gain seats in Congress, modestly if Hillary is the nominee, potentially greater numbers with Obama, but they'll be questionable red state dems who we'll only get part-time votes from anyway.

[water]

8. They don't run as "Republicans" though!

Do you disagree with anything I wrote in the OP? None of them are considered establishment.

[Mojambo]

15. Consumer America largely votes on brand name

The brand name Republican is pretty unpopular.

I know that both McCain and Romney are trying to run away from that brand name, but I don't expect them to be successful.

Neither Romney or McCain are going to be able to remove that big red "R" that appears after their name on the ballot, and for a lot of people that's all they'll need to see to go the other way.

[water]

16. I'm not sure if I agree, in many recent elections there have been plenty of cross-over votes.

[never_get_over_it]

17. McCave Wins

swiftboating, voter suppression and electronic voting - same shit as in 2004

And the day after the election I will happily post that I was wrong and am a dumbass - IF the Democrat wins....

And I hope I have to make that post

But I'm VERY worried I won't have to....

edited for spelling....

[McHatin]

18. No matter who runs

It should be a Democratic landslide, at least relatively compared to the last two elections. Unless something crazy happens, this will be the case.

[water]

19. I don't see why, though.

Like I mentioned in the OP, what positions would we be able to run on?

[karlrschneider]

20. Chance of Clinton winning 8 to 10%...chance of Obama winning 1 to 2%

Edwards would have had better than 50%.

[alfredo]

21. Turnout Turnout Turnout We need everyone here to dedicate themselves

to working with their county or state party to encourage turnout. Get out and register voters especially among minorities and the poor. Make sure they know to confirm their registration before the books close to make sure the republicans haven't disenfranchised them.

We have to make sure they youth vote gets out there. They are big on enthusiasm, but low on turnout. That trend has to change. I've seen so many candidates fail because they depended on the youth vote. This has to change.

It is up to you, nobody else. As Obama says "We can do it."

Whether it is Hillary or Obama, we need a Democrat naming judges to federal courts and possibly the Supreme Court.

When the candidate steps up to deliver the acceptance speech in Colorado, let's rise as one and show the world we are not what bush and the corporatist want us to be. Let's be free men and women in a vibrant democracy.