Could Virginia Deliver the Next President?

[Aptastik]

So I was thinking about electoral math today on the bus, as I am prone to do because I'm really that much of a nerd, and I started thinking about the Virginia Senate race.

Virginia, once a pretty safe Republican seat, has been trending Democratic for the past few years. The Northern Virginia suburbs have long been a bastion of blue, but as the suburbs roll into the countryside, once the reddest of the red, purple has been appearing as exurbs are being developed at an exponential race. Some areas once thought to be un-winnable have been showing signs of strong Democratic turnout, as can be seen with the latest off-year elections for the House of Delegates and State Senate.

This coincides with a Senate race during a presidential year that pits the enormously popular Mark Warner, against the less-than-popular Jim Gilmore. Warner is polling at over 50% in every poll I have seen. Warner's image as a centrist has also won him an powerful base of voters in the rural Southwest of the state. With Warner's popularity, he could easily turnout many voters in the state and with his Republican support, could convert some of his rural base to vote with the eventual Democratic nominee.

Could this be a "perfect storm" of events that will turn Virginia blue and swing the election to us electorally?

[rainy]

1. Virginia Beach is one of those places. We have helped get Dems elected locally.

[demnan]

2. In Prince William County Virginia where I live

the race for the Senate was decided. We worked very hard for Webb and he was hugely popular in this red-leaning suburban area south of DC which has many military and civilian workers at the Pentagon.

Our votes were counted late, and when the news finally came in, Webb was elected. We were thrilled.