How common are killer tornadoes in january like last night's in Tennessee?

[greenman3610]

[Maddy McCall]

1. It's tornado season.

Not unusual for the South.

Edit to add: This one was so bad because people were sleeping when the tornadoes hit, and they had little warning.

[Squatch]

5. If I recall from when I lived in SW Oklahoma, peak tornado season

is early March through early May. So, we're just a couple weeks early.

[RL3AO]

6. The peak season in the South is February and March.

[Maddy McCall]

10. Yeah...

The worst tornado we ever had in South Mississippi was in early January, 1975. An F4 tornado-- killed 10 in two counties, injured 200+.

The media are saying that the tornadoes that struck last night/ early morning were F3s to F4s.

[Dawggie]

9. Geez, they're marking houses in Lawrence County, AL the same way they were in Katrina.

Showing video on local television. It is so sad.

[Maddy McCall]

14. How are you doing?

Are y'all ok?

[Dawggie]

15. Fine here at the Dawg house. No damage and it appears that the funnel

that touched down nearby didn't do much at all. I haven't been out, but haven't heard any more about it other than it was there.

Things looking any better out your way?

[Maddy McCall]

18. We had nothing...good bit of wind, hardly any rain.

Glad to hear that y'all are in good shape.

We were lucky here, for sure.

[Dawggie]

33. As many of us were.

Thank god I had a gun to keep the evil away. (sorry, I just left a thread with a lot of silly posts).

I am so happy that the storms missed you.

[malaise]

19. That's awful

:cry:

[electron_blue]

2. Also, it's February.

[Aviation Pro]

3. Not very common....

...but they can happen. Basically what you have is a weather pattern that is similar to a typical Spring clashing of airmasses. In this case a deep low in the Northeast and the converging outflow boundary from another low to the west of Tennessee caused some enormous twisting in the squall line ahead of the cold front to the north. This twisting atmosphere, the confluence of three airmasses in a mid-latitude cyclonic storm and orographic lifting in Tennessee's rugged terrain triggers the tornadic activity. Here's the surface analysis chart which shows these features:



On edit: the pertubations, the bowing in the north-south cold front, takes on the same characteristics of a dryline, which is much more common to tornadic activity.

[Wcross]

7. I disagree, they seem to hit during January & February around here.

You may be right statistically but I recall many severe weather days like this in the winter.

[Maddy McCall]

11. Here, too.

Worse we ever had in this area was in January.

[Aviation Pro]

12. From the climatology (meteorological history)....

....perspective they are uncommon, however that is changing because of climate change and global warming.

[RL3AO]

13. La Nina could be having an effect as well this year.

[Aviation Pro]

23. La Nina has pretty much abated from last year....

....Currently the sea-surface temperatures are within norms for this time of year:

[RL3AO]

24. That is a drastically different view from the CPC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

They have said: "Strong La Nina conditions are now present across tropical Pacific Ocean".

[Aviation Pro]

25. I pulled this graphic from the CPC....

...and spoke to one of the Center's analysts. He said that La Nina is not showing off the South American coast (but the SSTs are high for the New Guinea area).

[Wcross]

4. Very common for the south.

I am always "on edge" this time of year. In the summertime we usually just get big thunderstorms with no rotation. In winter we get bad weather.

[nels25]

8. I can not talk about Tennessee

But here in SE Wisconsin we had a tornado do significant damage in early January.

And it also hit close to lake michigan which is supposed to be not possible.

So who knows, this is shaping up to be a strange year in any number of ways.:7

[KharmaTrain]

16. April, 1974....

I'll never forget that day, I was living in Carbondale, Illinois at the time. Several dozen tornadoes touched down across the Midwest that day leaving a lot of destruction. IRC, it was the worst one-day tornado outbreak in recorded history.

Sadly, it appears several of last night's twisters hit populated areas and I hope for the best for the survivors.

[RL3AO]

17. 148 tornadoes. 24 F4s, 6 F5s in one night.

[KharmaTrain]

20. Thank You

I think one of those F-4s or 5's stayed on the ground for a hundred miles. I've been upclose and personal to a couple tornados in my life, but one of those monsters scare the crap out of me.

Cheers...

[RL3AO]

22. Maybe you can find it.

[bamademo]

37. I was in the tornado that went through Huntsville

I don't think I've ever been so scared in my life. 5 of us in the bathtub, all high as a kite. We had a dog with us. The walls shook and the pictures fell off the walls. We were OK, obviously, since I lived to post about it.

[alfredo]

39. Number 46 hit Cherokee Park in Louisville, and a lot of

old trees got destroyed.

[MzShellG]

34. Ha!!! My birth month/year....

No wonder I'm fascinated with tornado footage and documentories.

[RL3AO]

21. 47 deaths now.

That passes the Oklahoma City Outbreak on May 3, 1999 and makes it the deadliest single outbreak since 1985.

[Maddy McCall]

26. 48 confirmed.

More expected.

[left is right]

27. Is it possible that Tennessee's killer tornadoes were the

result of God's wrath against them for voting for hukabee?

[Maddy McCall]

28. Some voted Obama. Some voted Clinton...

Indeed, MORE voted Democratic than Republican.

[left is right]

30. Yes but the rain falls on the just as well as on the unjust

and if the late unlamented Jerry Falwell could blame Liberals for both 911 and Katrina, I certainly can blame fundies voting for someone who is manifestly unchristian as the huckster

[uppityperson]

36. No. People who think their petty little things like voting yesterday would immediately

cause a tornado to happen are really grasping. Votes that put people into power that cause environmental destruction ARE responsible for the destruction that eventually happens, but punishment for a vote right then? pshaw and foolish.

[left is right]

40. It was a joke or meant to be one

I was playing on one of the repukes favorite memes: God punishes innocents for the actions of the evil liberal.
It goes without saying, our freaky weather of the last decade is the results of global climate changes that is greatly aggravated by human activity. That and the related issue of the dwindling supply of fresh clean water is the single most important issue facing our world today. If we don't come to grips with it and fast many, many people are going to suffer and die. Plagues, famine, riots will follow and then only God himself will be able to protect us that is unless he is punishing innocents for the actions of us evil liberal

[onenote]

29. one of the worst tornadoes to hit the south was in Feb 1884 --The "Enigma" Tornadoes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enigma_tornado_outbreak

[karlrschneider]

31. January tornadoes in February are extremely rare.

...

[slackmaster]

32. But they are about 3.57% more likely during a leap year

:dunce:

[karlrschneider]

35. Good point.

:P :D

[hugo_from_TN]

38. You need to flip the calendar to the next page