Why I'm thinking the repub ticket might be McCain-Romney

[onenote]

For a number of reasons, it makes sense for McCain and Romney to bury the hatchet and for Romney to be McCain's running mate.

First, there is the reagan/bush precedent: After a contentious fight for the nomination, Reagan ended up with Bush as his running mate. Anything that invokes memories of Reagan scores points with repubs.

Second, McCain needs someone that the conservative base will support -- and Romney fits that bill.

Third, the four year factor: conservatives will be drawn to a McCain/Romney ticket because they will see it as a stepping stone to a presidential run by Romney in (they will hope) four years.

Fourth, the age factor. McCain is showing his age. Romney looks young and vigorous by comparison.

Fifth....and possibly most importantly: the money factor. Romney has a lot, McCain needs a lot. McCain faces a real problem with respect to money. The repub primary race has been expensive and with Huckabee hanging around, its still costing money. The conservative base may hold their nose and vote for McCain against any Democrat, but they aren't likely to be that enthusiastic about opening their wallets, which already have been tapped by the likes of Huckabee and Romney, for McCain. And with a lot of non-incumbent repubs on the ballot because of resignations, there are going to be a lot of expensive congressional races being run by candiates who don't have the name recognition and war chests of an incumbent and will be tapping those same conservatives for contributions. Romney may excite the base enough to give, plus he brings his own money.

Sixth, regional appeal. Romney is all things to all people. Mormon/Utah (not that repubs need any help in Utah); Northeastern governor (not that Romney's record in Mass is going to give the repubs Mass or any other NE state), and son of Michigan governor -- and that's what he would play up: his "midwestern roots" (not that they're real, but he'd play them up anyway).

I'm not saying I'm certain that this will happen or that its even the most likely result -- just that I won't be surprised. You can make a case that McCain/Huck also brings the base, but I think Huck is likely to alienate more independent voters than Romney would and he's more likely to shoot himself in the foot with his religious fanaticism. Crist of Florida makes sense insofar as it probably makes McCain the prohibitive favorite in Florida, saving him the need to spend a lot of time and money there. But Crist isn't a big darling of the conservative right -- he is still blamed for not doing enough in the Schiavo case -- and thus doesn't fulfill one of McCain's bigger needs.

Anyway, just some musings on a cold damp morning.

[Demeter]

1. 0+0=0

They run run any combination they want, it's ours to lose.

[Frances]

6. I think overconfidence is our enemy

[SoFlaJet]

2. they friggin hate each other

and Romney doesn't want to attach his name to a ticket that is gonna get blown out (like Joe Scarborough says) in epic proportions. He has hope for the next election cycle

[Brother_1969]

4. I agree .. Romney saw what happened to John Edwards

Edwards' biggest liability, IMO, was losing (twice) in 2004. This greatly detracted from his credibility from the outset and he never really had much traction. Romney has already lost once this year, that's enough if he wants to preserve a shot in 2012.

BTW, I also agree with Scarborough. Either Hillary or Obama will mop the floor with McCain.

[SoFlaJet]

10. and this idea

is coming from republican friends of Joe, who are whispering to him about how they see an avalanche-a-comin' in November

[Benhurst]

3. I have one word for you:

"Jeb."

[Catchawave]

5. Yep, and another word

Florida.

[radfringe]

8. Florida.

can we just go down there with lots of chainsaws and cut florida off? let it float down and take out Cuba..

would make us happy, and getting rid of cuba would make the repubs happy

win-win for all

but then what do we do with OHIO? construct a sink hole for which it can fall into?

joking...only joking... really...

[aquart]

9. Not even in the Republican vocabulary.

[onenote]

11. and I have one word for you: Not

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

7. both Huckabee and Romney have liabilities

Huckabee is perceived by conservatives as being "too liberal" on social issues and he has the liability of having raised taxes while governor of Arkansas. Romney has his religion as a liability-the people who would come out to vote for Huckabee won't all vote for Romney. And he does have the taint of flip flopping on issues-conservatives may still distrust him on things like gay rights.

I don't see Jeb Bush entering the fray right now. I think the BFEE sees this election as one the GOP will lose-they would want to come back in '12 with Jebbie, I think.