And now for something completely different: the Senate!

[Pab Sungenis]

The happy campers at Electoral Vote.com] have a new Senate map up, and our odds are looking better than ever.

Their map shows only two vulnerable Democrats: Tim Johnson's seat in South Dakota and Mary Landrieux' seat in Louisiana, of course. I've been pretty confident in our losing that seat since Katrina, and I'm not suprised to see it in play. Johnson's hinges upon his health.

The Republicans, however, are currently listed with six vulnerable seats: Susan Collins, John Sununu, Norm Coleman, Liddy Dole, Gordon Smith, and Ted Stevens. I hadn't really expected that many Republicans to be considered "vulnerable" at this stage of the game.

No real polls to rely on yet, but going by my gut, here's what I see happening:

We lose in Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina, and Oregon. Although an Obama campaign might put North Carolina in play, I don't see it as being in play enough to bump Liddy. Collins is always seen as vulnerable, but I don't underestimate her; she's pulled it off before and probably will this time unless we put the best candidate out there. Sununu's toast, Coleman gets Frankened, and Stevens goes down the tubes.

For the open seats, I think Mark Warner pulls off Virginia. Nebraska and Colorado are more in the blue column today than they've been in a long time, but I'm not sure they'll move in a Presidential Election year, barring a HELL of a campaign by our nominee and one CRAPPY campaign from McCain. Idaho will never be anything but blood red; we don't stand a chance. New Mexico is a toss-up I'm not willing to bet money on.

My rough count: advantage Democrats +3. Likely Senate make-up in January: 52 D, 46 R, 1 IND, 1 JOE.

[9119495]

1. I mostly agree but I would give us CO...we won the last one there

and the state is becoming more sort of libertarian green and thus more likely to come our way.

[JorgeTheGood]

2. The dems are going to lose the South Dakota

and Lousiana seat ... that looks almost sure now.

OTOH -- those 6 (or 8) vulnerable republican seats now look safe and it even appears though the republicans will hold those seats which means they will retake the senate. On the house side, they will gain back several seats.

Reason ? Obanma.

The Hillary women will abandon BO in a heartbeat and the republicans will outnumber the dems at the polls by a huge margin.

Also, so much for the dems voting 2:1 in VA (and others) -- reality is ... those were dems for a day and won't be there during the GE.

Get used to 8 more years of Bush-like govenment and worse when the SCOTUS goes 8-1 or 9-0 hardline conservative.

[ProgressiveFool]

3. Dude, give me some of what you're smoking

Got any facts at all?

edit: on second thought, I don't want to smoke any of that - it sounds like a bad batch.

[JorgeTheGood]

4. OK --

what part of my post are you having a problem understanding ??? ... be specific and stay on topic and I will address your questions.