Somehow, I don't think the problem is 2008. It's 2012 and beyond.

[Jackpine Radical]

In fact, if I were a Republican long-term strategist, I think I would want a Dem to win in '08.

That's because, by next year, we'll be over the edge and into an economic plunge like nothing since 1932. And whoever is in power at the time is gonna carry the can for it.

The subprime crisis is only the beginning. Inflation will go nuts as the dollar crashes against internatinal currencies. Note that food has doubled in price in the last couple of years. Maybe not yet at the grocery stores, but wheat has double in price, corn is shooting up in price. Even milk is going up at rates I don't remember having seen. All of a sudden dairy farming is actually profitable, after 30 years of being an expensive hobby for small farmers.

The true cost of the war will start coming home in the next few years, especially if we get an administration in power that feels some obligation to notice and tend to things like endemic brain damage and PTSD in the vets.

Jobs will continue to decline. There will never be any major return of manufacturing. Americans face an upcoming century of competing with Asians and Mexicans for low-wage service jobs.

Somebody's gonna take the fall. It will be the Democrats. The corporate media will have enough fodder from this to build a propaganda machine that will keep the Republicans in power until they manage to do away with the necessity for elections entirely.

Your mission: Talk me out of my Sunday afternoon funk.

[EFerrari]

1. Imho, it could go either way.

The Democrats might be blamed for what Bushco has wrought OR, the public could become traumatically bonded to whoever is in office (as they did with FDR) and remain loyal to that leader. Congress always gets kicked around the block but whoever we elect in November has an even chance of being blamed or of being grabbed as a lifesaver.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I think it's all in the timing.

The market fell in October 1929, and the Depression was nearly at its worst by '32, still clearly uner Republican rule. FDR took over in March 1933, and things started to get better. He had his First 100 Day campaign, and got credit for saving things.

The problem this time is that I expect the Big Guys to keep things glued together until January 2009, so the crash comes in with the new Amnistration, and the 2 events will get linked in the public mind, helped along by the ever-so-insightful corporate media.

The big guys want the crash, they just don't want their puppets to get nailed for creating it.

[EFerrari]

5. We may get lucky and they'll still be blaming the Clenis.

:)

[dragonlady]

8. They aren't competent enough to keep things "glued together"

That's why we're in this mess. And, perhap naively, I think alternate sources of information will continue to proliferate and will let people know who is really to blame.

[Jackpine Radical]

13. The stock market would be lying in little pieces all over the floor right now

if they weren't managing to keep it somewhat glued together with continuing reductions in the Prime that make no long-term sense, etc., plus various manipulations on the part of the so-called "Plunge Protection Team" that is featured so heavily in DU's own daily market watch thread. They only have to keep it going until January.

[Warpy]

15. They're sacrificing the larger economy to prop up the Dow

and making the ultimate correction much deeper than it needs to be. Meanwhile, real wealth has been cut 55% with the fall of the dollar and will continue to fall. We're starting to notice the first of the inflation. What most people haven't noticed yet is that their net worth is now in negative numbers, thanks to the increase in debt load and the loss of equity in their homes.

I'd love to give an up side to all this, but we won't see any up side for some years to come and only if a new government is willing and able to invest in new infrastructure.

[Jackpine Radical]

16. Yes.

And, like always, the rich will walk away from the table with all the chips and the working-class retirement accounts will be emptied.

[Deja Q]

2. If it's profitable, more people would do it.

Is money not an incentive?

[H8fascistcons]

10. HypnoToad are you...

a closet republican? I read your thread about buying manufactured goods from China and the needle on my Fascist meter is starting to jump...

[Greyhound]

4. Get off DU, go outside and play with the dogs/kids/SO.

There is nothing we can do, and nothing will change. Worry doesn't help, so enjoy the good times as long as you can. We are building the memories of the good old days that will sustain us in the days to come.

[Deja Q]

6. Now there's an optimist for ya.

:yoiks:

[Greyhound]

12. Hey, I just call it like I see it.

I've been eerily right about how it's going to go for well over 20 years, and my great grandmother taught me a lot about how this cycle works, and more importantly, who runs the show.

This woman came west in a wagon, saw gas, electricity, flight, the moon landing and the beginning of the information age, so she had a pretty broad perspective.

[Nay]

18. Gotta go with you, greyhound. Things really aren't going to get

much better, if they get better at all. Don't know how old you are, but I'm in my 50's, and for me the good old days have come and gone. And not just because I am especially nostalgic--I truly feel this country is a much nastier and more unfriendly place. Schools suck when they used to be excellent,I could go on and on. I also have decided to enjoy what's left and try not to worry too much about the kids and grandkids--will make sure they always can stay at mom's.

[Greyhound]

20. Agreed. Looking at history, this is nothing new. We've seen it played out time and time again.

Fear consumes the land and the people in it as they withdraw further and further into their fantasy world of television. OTOH, there are still large numbers of relatively sane and pleasant people to be found, so the more unplugged I get the better the moments are.

Peace.

[melody]

7. With the decline of the dollar, there will be an improvement in manufacturing here

There will have to be.

Besides, I truly think *anything* after this monster will seem like a vast improvement. Just getting him out of
office will be a major relief.

[cornermouse]

9. That's pretty much what I've been thinking too so I'm

afraid I can't talk you out of it.

[drmeow]

11. 2 cents

You sound like you are concerned that whoever wins 2008 will be the Hoover of this economic disaster. One key difference

When Hoover was elected, the country was optimistic and the economy was booming. The crash came a few months after he got into office. In contrast, the economy has already started its downward spiral so the 2008 winner will not be coming into the WH under one set of economic conditions and running for re-election under another.

Iraq and the Middle East will also play a HUGE role in how the next president is viewed.

[Jackpine Radical]

14. Well, not exactly the Hoover, but it's a timing thing.

Also, the perceived reality is pretty much what the media tell the people it is. You see it even in the Dem primaries: Hill=experience, Obama=change, without much evidence in support of either perception.

If the media want the people to think that everything was going along fine until a Dem was elected and then it ame all unwired, then that is pretty much what the people will believe.

[Nay]

17. Agreed, Jackpine. Everyone forgets that Pubs say 9/11 happened

only a year into Bush's reign so he can be forgiven, but Clinton was a bad prez because the towers got bombed on his watch, forgetting that it was only a month or so into his reign. And no one remembers that the towers bomber is sitting in prison right this very minute, while bin Laden is...where?

All that has to be done is to wait a year or so, massage the factoids on the RW radio and blogs, and presto, it'll all be the Dems' fault.

[drmeow]

19. Media perceived reality

doesn't explain Bush's 19% approval rating. People know about foreclosures. People know about gas prices. People know that their dollar isn't buying what it used to. People know they are hurting financially. People who haven't lost their jobs know people who have. The word "recession" is appearing in the media. The front page of today's Arizona Republic (not exactly the liberal media) is the start of a week-long series on the economy - the headline "Cutting, coping, waiting, hoping: Arizonans tackle an economic downturn." And even thought the article starts with "Though its too soon to tell whether the nation is in a recession, many Arizonans know one thing: They feel pinched." that violates the same rule that Nixon's "I am not a crook" statement violates - denying that something is a negative equates that negative with that something in people's mind.

And this is February. Unless gas prices drop dramatically, foreclosures freeze, and layoffs stop, things aren't likely to get better for the everyday person before 1/1/09 only to crash shortly thereafter. And then there is the stimulus package. People know even the Federal government knows that there is a problem.

I'm not saying your fear isn't legit. Just as this year's good rainy season doesn't mean that the drought is over, a one term democratic president doesn't mean we've stopped the fascism. But in the midst of a drought, even one year of rain is a very good thing. A democratic president might at least restore some of our rights. Of course, if its just business as usual with a democratic president then your point is moot anyway - in that case 09 - 12 will just be a continuation down this scary and god-forsaken path we are on.

In all honesty, I'm more afraid we're going to end up in a bloody civil war before '12 than that a pug will take back the WH.