The downtrend at the DOW continues

[nadinbrzezinski]

Dow 11,740.15 -153.54 -1.29%

Nasdaq 2,169.34 -43.15 -1.95%

S&P 500 1,273.37 -20.00 -1.55%

10 Yr Bond(%) 3.4380% -0.1030



I know you all are distracted by the current bread and circus... but here you go folks, this is real, at many levels

Oh did I mention oil reached $108?

Good, it almost passed my mind

[annabanana]

1. This tidbit will be lost in spitzer splash.....

pity..

More people ought to be paying attention.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. well the other thing people are missing is the pattern

of bad news and who it is happening to.

Which is very familiar to historians

This market is also very familiar to students of history.

[CatholicEdHead]

8. It will be news in a few days

Spitzer will take up most of the week's news cycles. It is also not being mentioned much to keep people from panicking.

[greyghost]

18. EXACTLY

[selador]

2. it's a very tradeable market

but hell on those who are exclusively long

didn't see any signs of capitulative selling today. just steady across the board selling pressure without major spikes.

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. I have been hearing this since it hit 14,000 and then started to go down

officially it is NOT YET a correction, but it will not be long.

Only reason why it has not crashed are the trading holds put in place after '87, so it is slow motion, that's all

[selador]

5. well

it's been a pretty predictable bear market trading wise since the fake christmas low volume rally.

EVERY spike up is just eminently fadeable.

typical of a bear market is that support is hard to find but resistance is much more predictable.

my point about the selling was seen by the TRIN, the VIX, the Adv/Decl and the PUTCALL

none of these indicators showed the type of panic and/or capitulative selling we've seen in major dumpage.

i would LOVE LOVE LOVE another 2k down in the dow, but i trade the tape, not my desires, so that's merely a wish, not a prediction.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Well the fundamentals are not good

we both know it. So we will see the 2K points further down.

That is a prediction based on historical patterns

And no, I am not a trader, I am a historian by training.

[selador]

i know

that the markets are fractal in nature, and chaotic.

the way i look at predictions is this.

i make on average 10-30 trades a day. in a sense, each is a prediction

given a 1:1 risk/reward ratio, the best traders i have ever met have about 3/4 winning trades

but the real edges are when you have a trade that has high expectancy. iow, you have a combination of a probability (the chance the trade will hit target before stop) and risk/reward (you risk a small stop for a large gain.

i thus readily admit i have NO idea where the dow will be a week a month a year from now, if it's got 2k more down or not

also, to some extent it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. iow, on a value basis, there are some phenomenal values out there, whichever ways it goes.

if you study price action, and recognize that futures markets *unlike stocks* are zero sum, you recognize that markets don't move cause they want to, they move cause they HAVE to.

so, all this blather aside, it's cool that you can be so confident in your prediction.

i have some short exposure still all the way from christmas rally, so if keeps going down, gr00vy. but im not making any predictions here.

the EASY shorting is done already. as soon as something seems obvious to retail traders - it's rarely that obvious, or easy. i mean NOBODY liked gold at $350. now, they love it.

rinse, lather, repeat

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. We got gold

and now we are starting to have the debate whether it is time to get out

:-)

But I took them publicans at their word about bankrupting the economy. Hell, I wish I had the money when the Euro hit the market, I KNEW it was going up... again them pesky fundamentals

Alas I did not... and I kick myself over that one every so often

[selador]

15. i firmly believe

that you can be successful in the market using solely fundamentals, or solely technicals, etc. as long as you use strict money and risk management

you are right about the EURO.

i took a very small position long EUR short USD and wish i had gotten in earlier and with much greater size.

otoh, i took a hit on long USD and short CAD.

the reason why i was profitable in aggregate was that i cut my losses in the USDCAD trade and held my winner in the EURUSD trade which is kind of my point.

in recent currency trades, i was only right in 50% of them (1/2) but i made 5 times in my winning trade what i lost in my losing trade.

but yea, gold has been screaming BUY ME since 1998.

[earth mom]

7. K & R. nt

[tekisui]

9. I got in an argument with a lawyer in a bar.

I told him to watch for the DOW to hit 10,000. He looked like he shit his pants and told me he didn't like the way I thought.

It's tanking.

[Turn CO Blue]

10. And the official US casualty count for Iraq is nearing 4,000

There were 8 more today
:cry:

[Fleshdancer]

14. Don't forget Afghanistan. Combined, we're already pat the 4K mark.

:(

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. 10,000 by April?

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. Not by April, or at least not before the 15

Look for may or June, when nobody is paying attention, or less attention rather

[lpbk2713]

16. It would probably be a lot worse if BushCo would release the true economic statistics.

Unemployment, cost of living, gross domestic product, and all the other indicators that economists rely on; BushCo is playing a shell game and they are only telling us what they want us to know. It's all smoke and mirrors to them. By next summer, whoever wins the Presidency will inherit all the shit that has been swept under the rug and it will look like it is all their fault unless they can give credible explanations on how Bush and Cheney Inc screwed us royally. This is why I am personally in favor of impeachment.

[BigDaddy44]

17. A word to the wise....

Be greedy when everyone else is fearful, and fearful when everyone else is greedy (Warren Buffett)

Yep, in the short term it stinks. But those who are in the stock market for the short term aren't investors; they are gamblers.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Moment of UH... Mort Zuckerman of the World and News report, (RIGHT WING RAG)

just used the words great depression and housing market in the same sentence

It is very scary when the talking heads start talking like me...

Makes you wonder just how bad will things truly get

And I quote, "this country has not seen this since the Great Depression."

You could even see Tucker paling