Juan Cole: The real reason for moving Fallon out is not Iran but Iraq

[Strelnikov_]

http://www.juancole.com/

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates denied Tuesday that the abrupt resignation of Admiral William Fallon as CENTCOM commander indicates an imminent war against Iran. I think Gates's denial is credible. There is no sign of an American war on Iran, which would involve key positioning of warships, materiel and troops. There is no congressional mandate for such a thing, despite the non-binding Kyl-Lieberman resolution in the senate. A provocation is not out of the question, but it would be a risky move in an election year and could easily backfire on the Republican Party (ask Aznar in Spain).

My guess is that the real reason for moving Fallon out is not Iran but Iraq, and that he is being made to step down for the same reason that Donald Rumsfeld was. He does not agree with the long-term troop escalation or 'surge' in Iraq. He doesn't believe that counter-insurgency will work in Iraq in the medium term. And as an admiral, he has his eye on potential trouble spots such as Taiwan and North Korea, and is frustrated that the hands of the US are tied as long as it is bogged down in the Iraq quagmire.

Having such a big dissenter as CENTCOM commander is inconvenient for the Republican Party at a time when John McCain is admitting that if he fails to convince the American people that the surge is succeeding, he will lose the presidency. That is, Fallon may have run afoul not of Cheney on Iran but McCain on Iraq. This may be Bush's first favor to the Republican nominee, who after all had a career as a naval officer himself.

[napi21]

1. Yes, I read somewhere that Fallon wanted to escalate troop removal

from Iraq, and he wasn't afraid to state his position. Shrub only wants "yes men" around him, and if you're not, you're GONE!

[PRETZEL]

2. good point, well taken

with one possible question that follows up on that,

With Fallon stepping down, when is his retirement effective and does that allow him the opportunity to share his views? If Fallon is allowed to talk, this in no way shape or form helps McCain.

[0007]

3. "This may be Bush's first favor to the Republican nominee, who after all had a career as a naval off

Officer himself." OMFG, Johnny will get a giant size woody that will make junior's look like something that belong on an ant, or a flea or any various small, wingless, bloodsucking insects of the order Siphonaptera that have legs adapted for jumping and are parasitic on warm-blooded Americans and those who hate junior & his small dick.

So in reality Gates & junior both hated Admiral William Fallon. Was that because Fallon said many a nasty things about General Pretraus? Who knows?

[Voice for Peace]

4. Somewhat of a relief to read this. nt

[progressoid]

5. No no no.

I've been reading on DU that we are just about to invade Iran.


Really.


Any day now.


Probably tomorrow.


Saturday at the latest.

[Supersedeas]

6. will we ever know

[FogerRox]

7. When Fallon got the job, some folks were claiming it was to run the invasion of Iran

I think the idea that removing Fallon was a favor to McCain is far more reasonable.

[Peace Patriot]

8. I think China blocked an attack on Iran, although it may have been both--

dissent on it, in the U.S. military, AND China (and possibly also Russia and India). (I saw a thing go blip in the 'news' about six months ago, that these three countries were meeting on what to do about the U.S. bully. It never re-surfaced.)

Anyway, Iran is too well defended. Bolivia isn't--and the fascists there are about to declare their "independence" and split off four rural provinces--where all the gas and oil are--from the central government of Evo Morales--the first indigenous president of Bolivia (in a mostly indigenous country)--to deny benefit of those resources to the poor majority. And I think they are going to "request" U.S. boots on the ground in support of their "independence." This will cause a storm of trouble in South America, and gain Donald Rumsfeld (yup*) some strategic ground in his plan to regain global corporate predator control of the Andes oil fields from the democratic, leftist governments (and strong allies of each other): Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina and Bolivia.

*Rumsfeld's PNAC II: South America (just read between the lines a bit--the part where he calls for "swift" U.S. action in support of "friends and allies" in South America):

"The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like Chávez," by Donald Rumsfeld, 12/1/07
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113001800.html

I've put a lot of "two and two's" together for this theory of the Bushites' next move in the Oil War. I think I'm right--Bolivia is next, and the Andes oil fields are the goal--and it will land--like a live hand grenade--right in the middle of the presidential election in early fall.

[RedEarth]

9. I believe it's because of Iraq also...