With Fallon gone, how much more likely is an Iranian Strike?

[tekisui]

I had been lured to accept that the Iran NIE, and Fallon had put a halt to a march to strike Iran. How much more likely is an Iranian strike, now that the head of the military in the ME is leaving?

[jaysunb]

1. Very

:evilfrown:

[tekisui]

2. That is what I am afraid of.

[mike_c]

3. I think it is a done deal-- just my opinion...

...but I think playing with bombs is Cheney's wet dream and none of them have anything to lose any longer, e.g. elections.

[tekisui]

4. And dickie is roaming the ME, right now.

Under various pretenses. I don't like it.

[babylonsister]

5. Here's a different POV:

http://www.slate.com/id/2186456/

"Fox" Fallon Wasn't Hounded OutThe Centcom commander brought about his own ouster.
By Fred Kaplan
Posted Wednesday, March 12, 2008, at 12:48 PM ET



It's a shame that Adm. William "Fox" Fallon has resigned, or been ousted, as commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. But he brought it entirely on himself.

Contrary to the charges of some Democratic lawmakers, this is not another case of an officer's dissent being stifled. Nor does Fallon's departure herald a tilt in U.S. policy toward war with Iran.

To the extent that policy disputes are behind the move, they are much more about Iraq.

Last month, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that after the five "surge" brigades left Iraq this July, there would be a "pause" before any further withdrawals would commence. In a Feb. 27 interview with the New York Times, Fallon said this pause would be brief, just long enough to allow "all the dust to settle," after which the drawdown would resume. Moreover, he said, U.S. strategy would shift—focusing on "supporting, sustaining, advising, training, and mentoring" the Iraqi army, not so much on fighting or providing security ourselves.

In a Slate column the next day, I wondered if Fallon was speaking on behalf of Gates, the administration, or anybody besides himself. I have since learned, from a senior Pentagon official and from a high-ranking Army officer, that he was not. I have also learned that many of Fallon's statements on policy matters have been similarly unauthorized.

more...

http://www.slate.com/id/2186456/

[Demeter]

6. Depends On Whether There's Still Someone Like Fallon in the Loop

If there are enough loyal officers to stand in the way of disaster, then we all have a chance.

The odds on that are slim, but hopefully, not none.

[PATRICK]

7. Cheney to Israel at same time

was plainly meant to reassure them that the basic plan is still in place. The utter, total bs about the Palestinian peace process probably was entirely a smokescreen even though current events DO make it pertinent and something infinitely more worthwhile pursuing.

It is on the table, always has been. Obviously resistance has pushed the timing into the future. Trying to venture an opinion if they get their act together without resistance while Dems are not even raising the rare sidelong squeak because of preoccupation with the primaries gives the determined the advantage.

If McCain is good enough for the usual election fix they would love dearly to saddle the old man with the entire rap for a strike. It would a do or die for him, not the dynasty. Then it would be do AND die and his successor, more than likely a Bush stooge, would let MORE Bushies in, probably Jeb as Veep.

Or, seeing McCain headed for ruin, as is likely, they would make a last strafing run on the world that might shake things up for the election, cement their agenda and other high risk goals such as they have never been held to account for yet. The biggest distraction from a floundering market and economy. Since they never really get punished, why not? The nature of risk in the Bush administration so much resembles the incredible Spitzer psychology. It is hard to fathom especially when it ultimately fails, hard to predict, harder to check unless absolutely nailed. Only a cadre of heroes, unsung, fired or otherwise removed from their positions, have done much to check their ambitions. Apparently Fallon bought us more time to waste as we step back and wait for Bush/Cheney's next whimsical death-dealing move.