Next week will be named holy fuck week on Wall Street.

[Swede]

Bear Stearns is only the first to fall.

[shaniqua6392]

1. Jim Kramer said earlier this week

that he could see a run on the banks happening soon, where people will go try to grab all of their money out. That is some scary crap. One good thing about being poor though...I won't have to worry about getting any money out of the bank. Thanks to George, we don't have any left. It is all in my gas tank and at the grocery store.

[truebrit71]

2. ..in that case it's a good thing I don't have any!!! See, that way there's nothin to worry about!

Woo hoo!!!

[better tomorrow]

4. darn just in time for my annuities to start.....

knew I should've kept it under the mattress.....

[tachyon]

19. You better call those "IT'S MY MONEY AND I WANT IT NOW" guys ASAP

:shrug:

[sharp_stick]

5. Well then it's a good thing

that Leonard the Wonder Monkey regularly beats Cramer in stock picking. I would guess that the banks are safe.

;-)

[superkia]

18. If there is a run on the banks that hurts them, I could see them...

injecting as much of their worthless paper to save the banks and wealthy peoples investments until they can reinvest and then turn all the money people took out from dollars to pennies. If we continue to ignore reality, the elite and powerful will do just fine and the rest of the country WILL be ran into poverty in time. Money is control.


"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws." (sounds like the federal reserve)
Attributed to Mayer Amschell Rothschild

"It is well enough that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system for, if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
Henry Ford

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
Ernest Hemingway

You have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of members of the government. With due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.
George Bernard Shaw, 1928

The gold standard acted as a silent watchdog to prevent unlimited public spending. I can find no evidence to support a hope that our fiat paper money venture will fare better ultimately than such experiments in other lands. Because of our economic strength the paper money disease here may take many years to run its course... But we can be approaching the critical stage. When that day arrives, our political rulers will probably find that foreign war and ruthless regimentation is the cunning alternative to domestic strife.
Howard Buffett (Warren's father), U.S. Congressman, 1940s

[progressive_realist]

3. Join the party

At the daily Stock Market Watch thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3226076

We'll be stocking up on :popcorn: for next week.

[bluestateguy]

6. Somehow I just don't think so

I gave up a long time ago trying to predict what would happen on Wall Street.

[better tomorrow]

7. the Creature from Jekyll Island strikes again....

whoops, I meant to post that under the general reply thread. That was not to your post. Sorry. Don't know how to fix it to get it there.

[girl gone mad]

11. I love that book..

what a fabulous disaster the Fed has been.

[BigDaddy44]

8. Lots of similarities to 1907

For those interested in a bit of history. Back then, J.P. Morgan jumped in and convinced the banks that they better help each other out if they were to avoid a major panic. It worked. If other banks are jumping in to help Bear Stearns, they may see parallels. I can't see it as a bad thing (but may not do much good).

[unblock]

22. they are not jumping in to "help" bear stearns

they are helping bear get a loan from the fed in order to buy themselves time to look over bear's books to buy whatever's salvageable. they will buy it at fire sale prices, and leave bear stearns with just enough money to service their debts for a while. meanwhile, bear stearns' customers will abandon it and they will be toast.

they are not helping bear stearns, they are helping themselves to bear stearns.

[Karenina]

23. Bingo!

[fasttense]

9. See now if Ben had given that $200 billion to those homeowners

who were about to foreclose, those mortgages would still be good, all those CDOs and bundled securities would still be good, those huge loans on those financial instruments would still be good. Seems they keep trying to prime the pump by pouring the water down the well.

[girl gone mad]

14. No they wouldn't..

This problem is much deeper than just subprime mortgages gone bad. This has moved on to prime and beyond. No one will touch derivatives, regardless of the rating. Deregulation succeeded in destabilizing the markets and nobody trusts us enough to buy what our financial institutions are selling.

Most homeowners would prefer to walk away rather than hold on to a rapidly depreciating asset, particularly when they are upside down anyways.

[lame54]

10. Will she be there?...

[HCE SuiGeneris]

12. Not "Jesus Christ on a Trailer Hitch" week? Damn.

What a letdown. x(

[selador]

13. retail traders and market bottoms - statistics included

fwiw, the news is always worst at the bottom, and retail traders are always the most bearish near bottoms, jkust as they are the most bullish near tops.

fading retail is almost always smart.

nobody liked commodities two years ago (when they were cheap). now they LOVE them.

i've made about 80% short trades since before christmas, which has been immensely profitable... but.

the bearishness is getting very high. maybe one more really good flush , if that before some poppage.

for example: putcall today got over 1.4 and that's VERY high for the relatively modest selloff we had today

TRIN readings peaked over 3

Tick distribution was very negative

VIX was up 17.8% today to 32.38.

the last 3 times VIX spiked over 30 was at least a short term bottom

commodities are also looking heavy today

the consumer confidence survey was also telling

in the last 56 years, there have been only 47 months that have had as low or lower reading.

interestingly, this was the data following those level spikes

over the next 6 months the S&P averaged up 8.7% in those instances
AND were positive 81% of the time

successful trading combines intelligent risk management, technical analysis (if you are into that sort of thing - it helps), willingness to be contrarian, understanding of psychology, and employment of game theory in terms of assessing risk/reward

so, i am not saying we're not going to see more downside. i am saying the compelling risk/reward trade is for some popping long action

remember- rallies are sharpest in the context of a bear market!

also remember, next week is OEX week, and that skews many institutional actions, as there is a lot of pinning of stocks to options strikes

just my .02

fwiw, if you KNOW next week will be terrible (which nobody KNOWS), then you coulda bought DXD at close today for downside protection. simple as that. over 40% of my profits since christmas in my cash account (vs. futures account) have been DXD (shorting the dow )

[jazzjunkysue]

20. Selador: It's called Rosetta Stone: They'll have you speaking english in no time.

Just kidding. But I have no idea what you were saying.
:hug:

[masmdu]

15. I am BUYING next week...!!! Scalling into positions in SP Futures from 1260-1210

Btwn march 18-23 will mark a long term low. Looking for several months up after that with a possible lower low in June of about 1175. From there....NEW HIGHS!!!

(not advice, make your own calls)

I will also allocate IRA funds to SSO (2xSP long ETF)

[Scriptor Ignotus]

16. I read this exact post last week

don't know if you wrote it, but I saw the same "prediction" last week. probably will see it every week until it actually happens.

[Swede]

17. This is a play on the Christian Holy Week which is next week.

Bear Stearns news today.

[malaise]

21. So you're saying to won't be a

Good Friday? :D