How a war with Iran might be provoked

[JMDEM]

These are not my ideas -- I picked them up from other posts, but they seem to be overlooked.

I doubt that the US will attack Iran over a real or imagined direct provocation.

What is more realistic is that Israel will launch air strikes against Iranian nuke facilities, perhaps due to "intelligence" indicating the Iranians are close to something. The Iranians will be enraged, but the US will say "hands off Israel, or else".

If Iran flips out, Bush has his war, but it's "not the fault of the US" The war becomes "justified". If Iran keeps its cool, then Bush ushers in the Nov. elections with a huge foreign policy victory (in the eyes of Joe-sixpack).

Just speculating, but of all the possibilities regarding war with Iran, I think this is most probable.

Edited for spelling

[stahbrett]

1. Two points

1) Sounds like a real possibility

2) The verb you were looking for is "provoke" - "provocate" isn't a word as far as I'm aware. :D

[Muttocracy]

2. I wish people were talking about this. Cheney's trip to the ME and all... nt