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Edited on Thu Mar-20-08 11:09 AM by ProfessorGAC
Edit for a bad typo.
First, the traditionalists refer to recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.
However, the analytic school uses a more statistically based approach. A recessionary period is characterized, per the analytic approach, is one in which growth is that is in the bottom quintile of the growth rates of the previous 40 years, when the median per capita income is statistically stagnant or falling, when governmental and personal debt is growing (as a percent of GDP) by more than one sigma above the mean of the prior 40 years, and inflation is more than 70% of nominal GDP growth.
So, we've been recessionary for 7 years.
Depression is characterized by a simultaneous contraction of GDP, rapid monetary inflation caused by deflation of the currency, and massive shifts (of at least 6 sigma) of employment levels, and subsequent reduction in both overall and per worker productivity. It's a recession on steoids, IOW.
The combination of these effects create a business climate in which the system cannot self-recover, because with employment down, per worker productivity down, monetary value down, and wages restricted, there is no demand for the fewer products. So, there is no self-correction mechanism for depression.
Recessions, if left alone, can in many cases, self-correct. Yes, there will be painful times, but we have those anyway, even when the fed overcontrols the system, or when the fiscal policy involves over-manipulation of taxation levels. Depression will not self-correct, and if nothing is done, may just gradually get worse and worse.
A depression is a recession that is completely out of control. It exhibits all the behavior of recession, in greater degree, and cannot be counted on to self-correct without significant intervention. The Professor
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