General Election.. worst case scenario

[SoCalDem]

States are morphed to value by size

Make your own predictions @
http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~jab/elect/

edited to add:

I don't think that the whole state of MI will be as vindictive as some here would think.. MI is a traditionally democratic state.. The states that i think we should concentrate on are CO, VA & NH... small states and very do-able

[Name removed]

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[SoCalDem]

2. Primary voters are always the party-faithful

GE voters sometimes don't even vote in primaries..

but hey.. if you want to vote for McCain or stay home, that's your right too..

Maybe McCain would be a better president for Michiganders?? who knows?

[Mist]

3. My map (an optimistic one!):

I included Alaska, because I think of them as more libertarian/Repubs. I included NC because I live here and like to think a Dem win is do-able. I tend to think Colorado's a lost cause, but VA, after voting Jim Webb in, is probably do-able. As I say, I'm being optimistic!

[SoCalDem]

4. i think Iowa is more do-able than MT or AR or NC

It's an odd election to be sure:)

[Mist]

15. Since they elected a Dem. Gov, and 2 Dem. Senators, I have hopes for Montana! nt

[mnhtnbb]

9. I live in NC, too, and there is no way NC will go for Obama or Hillary vs McCain. No f*cking way.

On edit: had Edwards gained the nomination, I would have put several southern states in play. But not
with Hillary who is so hated, or with Obama. Racism is alive and well in the South.

[Mist]

14. I hope you're wrong, but I fear you're right. nt

[DFW]

5. I wouldn't write off PA either

They have a Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor, several prominent
House members (Murtha, Murphy) and one Democratic Senator. Besides,
their Republican Senator is in his mid seventies and has been badgered
into submission by the Bushies, which he resents.

I give PA at worst a 50% chance of going Democratic in November, no
matter who the nominee is. Ohio, too, for that matter. I'm less
optimistic about Missouri, but even so, unless we self-destruct
faster than Jim Phelps' tape recorder, this one is ours to lose.

[SoCalDem]

6. not writing it off, but showing that there IS a way

without it and OH and FL.. Those three make it infinitely EASIER, but there is a way without them..and it's probably cheaper & easier to woo and win a few smaller states who are "on the edge" of turning blue..:)

[DFW]

7. I see what you mean

But I think that PA can be won without diverting resources from more "iffy" states.
I know some of the people there, and they will work tirelessly for the Democratic
ticket without any outside influence. Ohio without Blackwell and the corrupt right-
wing machine is a much better prospect as well (as opposed to FL, where it remains
intact). In a state like MO, I think the fundamentals remain more biased against us
than in OH or PA.

Either way, I like our chances this time (considering the stakes, we can't afford not to!)

[JerseygirlCT]

20. I agree. nt

[Vinca]

8. Take off your rose colored glasses and add Diebold to the mix. nt

[countryjake]

10. You can say that again!

I have no idea why anyone even thinks the coming election will be conducted fairly. They own the means, the machines, just as they did in the other thefts.

[SoCalDem]

11. There's a slight difference this time.. The rabid righties are not

that "into" McCain.. GW was a cult-figure ..the "faithful" would march in lockstep to support him.. i don't see them doing this for Mccain..

I really think the republicans prefer to lose this time, and let dems spend four long years trying to clean the shit off the walls..and after spending 4 years getting "ready", the repubes will arise in '12, full of piss & vinegar...and ready to blame the dems for not making it all "pretty" again..

I can see it being George Allen, especially if Obama ends up winning).. republicans do not shy away from much.. By then GA, will have been "cleansed" and ready to do battle.. he was the one being mentioned most before his macaca moment..


republicans win when they have the "South will rise" mentality... They need it, to get the knuckledraggers fired up..

[Zynx]

13. The problem is McCain draws moderates. Bush didn't. "Base politics" is bullcrap

as we proved in 2006. The Republican base, contrary to popular belief, did turn out in 2006, but was outvoted by moderates who lined up with the Democrats. McCain will do better with Independents and conservative Democrats than Bush. Make no mistake, this will be a tough election.

[Zynx]

12. A worst case scenario does not have us winning Missouri.

The same goes for Colorado. I would put the probability of us winning those two while losing Pennsylvania at 0%. States don't vote in isolation. You don't win Wyoming while losing Massachusetts, to use an extreme example.

[SoCalDem]

16. Mo has always voted with the winner, so I extrapolated

if we won, MO would be with us :evilgrin:

http://www.270towin.com/states/

[Zynx]

18. Winning is hardly a worst case scenario.

Given polling data I could build a scenario we get beaten by 56-43. I don't think that's likely, but it could happen.

[SoCalDem]

19. worst case ..not the winning, but the least possible/easiest? way

[wuushew]

17. That map is from 1992, with the corresonding EV values

I use this one http://www.grayraven.com/ec/.


Also worst case scenario should also include a red CO, MO and maybe NV. I think New Mexico has its act togehter and will go blue unlike 2004.

[McCamy Taylor]

21. Wow SoCalDem, My map is just like yours. Michigan is my swing.

The only thing that can save us there is McCain said "The jobs are not coming back."

Obama needs to get his butt into Michigan now and start making it up to the people in the economically hardest hit areas. The people in Pennsylvania who are worried about disenfranchisement of Democratic voters will notice and appreciate it.

[goodgd_yall]

22. My prediction

Dem 285
Rep 253 With Obama as Dem candidate

Dem 289
Rep 249 With Hillary as the Dem candidate

Either way---we win!