Peak Oil update

[Kelvin Mace]

Since I found myself digging into oil production numbers today, I thought I would list those countries whose oil production has apparently peaked, and those still increasing production.

Source - US DoE http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/supply.html

Figures are through the end of 2006, and are in megabarrels per day (Mbpd) average production for the year. Peaked countries are in bold, with the year they peaked. The percentage shown after the date is the amount of decline since peak.

Algeria - 1.81 Mbpd
Angola - 1.41 Mbpd
Argentina - 0.69 Mbpd (2001) -17.8%
Australia - 0.43 (2000) -40.6%
Azerbaijan - 0.64 Mbpd
Brazil - 1.72 Mbpd
Canada 2.53 Mbpd
China 3.67 Mbpd
Colombia - 0.53 Mbpd (1999) -34.9%
Denmark - 0.34 Mbpd (2004) -12.1%
Ecuador - 0.54 Mbpd
Egypt - 0.64 Mbpd (1996) -30.7%
Equatorial Guinea - 0.37 Mbpd (2005) -4.4%
Gabon - 0.24 Mbpd (1997) -35.9%
India - 0.69 Mbpd (1995) -1.9%
Indonesia - 1.02 Mbpd (1991) -36.5%
Iran - 4.03 Mbpd (2005) -2.7%
Iraq - 1.99 Mbpd*
Kazakhstan - 1.31 Mbpd
Kuwait - 2.53 Mbpd
Libya - 1.68 Mbpd
Malaysia - 0.61 Mbpd (1998) -14.8%
Mexico - 3.25 Mbpd (2004) -3.8%
Nigeria - 2.44 Mbpd (falloff from 2005 seems related to political violence, not production peak)
Norway - 2.49 Mbpd (2001) -24.5%
Oman - 0.74 Mbpd (2000) -23.9%
Qatar - 0.85 Mbpd
Russia - 9.24 Mbpd
Saudi Arabia - 9.15 Mbpd (2005) -4.2%
Sudan - 0.37Mbpd
Syria - 0.41 Mbpd (1996) -30.2%
UAE - 2.64 Mbpd
UK - 1.49 Mbpd (1999) -45.6%
USA - 5.10 Mbpd (1970) -47.01%
Venezuela - 2.51 Mbpd (1970) -32.2%
Vietnam - 0.34 Mbpd (2004) -14.6%
Yemen - 0.37 Mbpd (2001) -14.9%

* Fields operating way below capacity. All time high was 3.48 Mbpd in 1979. More recently 2.89 Mbpd in 1989, then 2.57 Mbpd in 2000

In summary 21 of 38 oil producers are in decline. The bigger the percentage of decline since peak, the less likely a country will "bounce back" with a new find. It is pretty much assumed that they have found all the oil there is to find. My own inexpert opinion is that anything greater than a 10% is a true peak.

Another way of looking at this is that the countries who produced an average of 35.44 Mbpd of the 72 Mbpd supply in 2006, 47.2%, have declining production.

[Delphinus]

1. You might think of

cross-posting this onto the Peak Oil forum of DU.

Thanks, Kelvin. Hopefully this will get some attention!

[Kelvin Mace]

2. ah, will do

Though I would guess the experts have been up on this.

[Subdivisions]

4. Ah.... the Peak Oil dungeon. Why post it there? So only those of

us who care about PO can see it? That's preaching to the choir. It needs more exposure than that and is appropriate for "General" Discussion.

[Subdivisions]

3. Wow! Someone else on here actually gets it and cares

about peak oil. Most just discount it as if a finite resource will last forever, never even thinking about how many people there are on this planet and how many things require oil as a feedstock.

Thanks for posting this. I will be monitoring it to see if people give a shit because I gave up months ago warning people. I would post something that was mind-blowing and scary as hell and REAL and people just yawn as the thread made like a gold brick in a lake - straight to the bottom.

Edited to add: These are the numbers through 2006. The numbers through 2007 are much worse. I'll see if I can get those before this post creates a crater somewhere down there ↓.

[prairierose]

5. It amazes me that so many people discount the reality of...

peak oil. Some of us knew this was coming many years ago. I believed Hubbert's research then. It seemed only logical and the fantasy that there will be no reduction in resources makes no sense to me at all.

[kestrel91316]

6. Some of us "get it" about both PO and GW, and wonder what

on earth the future holds for us...........

I had hoped that PO might save us from GW, but that's unlikely since we seems to have passed the tipping point.

I am increasingly glad I have no children - it's plenty, thank you, to have a young adult niece and nephew to worry about.

[Kelvin Mace]

7. The evidence becomes clearer each day

but nobody wants to really face the realities.

[bullwinkle428]

10. Unfortunately, there's lots of denial out there, and a fair amount

of it right here on DU!

Look at this article - there are people paying 25% of their paycheck on gas to get them to and from work, along with the other basic, every-day errands that are required.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/24/news/economy/camden_alabama/index.htm?cnn=yes

What will this continuing upward spiral do to us as a nation?? I shudder to think of the consequences down the road... :scared:

[Terry in Austin]

8. People probably won't start believing it

until the gas lines start. Give it a year or two.

Meanwhile, there's plenty of "consumer" grumbling about high gas prices, and no shortage of denial narratives: "greedy oil companies," "above-ground factors," "naughty speculators," "market cycles," "aging refineries," etc.

But when there starts to be any uncertainty about the very availability of go-juice for the SUV, that's probably what will bring the reality of peak oil into general awareness.

From there, it should be easier for the general public to understand what happens when the semis aren't rolling any more -- what happens to our entitlements of January strawberries and Chinese designer knock-offs, and for that matter, to our whole empire of plastic.

Now, back to Business as Usual...

[Subdivisions]

9. Terry in Austin, welcome to DU. You are correct and by the time

the general public finally gets it, it will be way too late. It already is.

[Kelvin Mace]

11. sub $3 is now gone

$4 is on the way.

I see $1 a year rise in the coming years.

[Subdivisions]

12. Kicking this to post this related WSJ article and video:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120613138379155707.html