N. Carolinians identifying as Repubs DROPS from 35% to 26%, Pew Research Center...

[Blackhatjack]

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1012174.html

"Fewer in N.C. affirm GOP ties"

"Of the large states Bush won by more than five points in 2004, North Carolina has seen the greatest drop in GOP identification"

Official voter registration as of March 22, 2008, 44.8% Dem, 34% Repub, 21.2% Independent.


This should settle all doubts that NC is a Democratic state by voter registration and by self-identification.

[supernova]

1. This is really good news

:woohoo:

Thanks!

[ingac70]

2. Awesome!

People are really kidding themselves if they think folks in the normally "red" states aren't fed up with the bullshit Repukes have put the country through.

[book_worm]

3. I think if we target it we can win it in November.

[Lex]

12. The population in the bigger cities, if they get out the vote, can outnumber

the rural voters in NC. NC is actually fairly "purple" anyway if you look at numbers.

The voters in the bigger cities, of all races/colors/creeds, tend to vote Democratic--while the rural voters are more Con voters.

If we can get a nice turnout in the more metro areas, the numbers are definitely there for NC to go blue in the Presidential election.

[Zynx]

20. We lost it by 12 points in 2004. Hardly purple.

What makes you think those numbers are any softer than anywhere else?

[yardwork]

22. Do you think that the 2004 vote was reliable? Lots of voting irregularities.

A bunch of votes in Beaufort were permanently lost - electronic touch screen. Lots of problems all over the state. I'm not sure that any of our early voting counted, to be honest.

North Carolina is traditionally a Democratic state. Now, many of those are southern Democrats, who are happy to cross party lines and vote for Republicans in the General Election. Nonetheless, we usually have a Democratically controlled State Legislature and Democratic governor.

[Zynx]

24. Looking at the presidential voting trends, there was nothing irregular about the vote in 2004.

Clinton lost NC by 4 points in 1996 while winning nationwide by 8. Dukakis lost by 16 in 1988 while losing by 7. We can go back to 1968 if we really want to prove the point. The only interruption was Carter's run in 1976, but that was due to regional loyalty. Carter won the same way Cleveland did back in 1884 and 1892 so it isn't a good comparison.

Saying North Carolina is a historically Democratic state is like saying Vermont is a historically Republican state. Vermont has a popular Republican governor and has voted Republican more than any other state in the country. Look it up. However, the Republicans stand no chance of winning it now. North Carolina would only vote Democratic as part of an electoral landslide. It will not vote Democratic in a close race except in the case you are running someone from North Carolina at the top of the ticket.

[yardwork]

33. I guess you know best. I see you live in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is, of course, a far better judge of North Carolina than those of us who actually live here, and in some cases, were born and raised here. I guess we're just dummies.



:eyes:

[marions ghost]

44. Everything was irregular

about the voting in NC in 2004. After Florida and Ohio, NC gets 3rd booby prize for most problems and (uh) "irregularities."

From the N & O article posted by the OP: ..."Bush won North Carolina handily in 2004, 56 percent to 44 percent." If you talk to people involved in that election, Bush won handily all right, with a lot of extra "hands" helping him behind the scenes. Prior to the election 40% of NC counties got new non-auditable touch screens, how conveeenient.

Since then, some serious effort has been made to address the problems but the touch screens remain. If NC could get really transparent elections, I'm sure beyond a shadow of a doubt it would tip over to blue. That being said, I hope the Dems work NC as hard as they can.

[Shae]

4. That is astounding

I hope it means the tide is turning. It's about time!

[AP]

5. ...Edwards?

[Orsino]

6. Watch these numbers...

...and compare carefully to the November returns from this newly-blue state. Think Diebold could turn this into a draw?

[kentuck]

7. Can't wait to vote for Hillary...?

I assume? :-)

[underpants]

15. ...

:rofl:

[Thepricebreaker]

46. Sounds like the Rush Limbaugh antics continue....

[NNN0LHI]

8. This is good unless they are fecking with our primaries which I think they are

Lets see who they vote for in November before getting too excited.

Don

[kentuck]

9. I don't think so, Don...

I think the Republican Party will have to win them back. It won't happen in this election cycle.

[SoCalDem]

10. If they F-up our primaries and we end up with the wrong candidate

November won't matter all that much:grr:

[Irishonly]

11. I Hope It's Good News

I also hate that I have become so cynical these past eight years. I trust neocon republicans as far as I could throw an obese elephant.

[live love laugh]

13. This will make it harder to steal those Rethug (s)elections. We are NOT "divided" any longer.

A clear majority of Americans do not favor Republicon ideals. Of course that doesn't matter to them. In Dick Cheney's words: "So?"

[Blackhatjack]

14. Our leading DEM candidate for Governor is a woman, our Lt. Gov Bev Perdue...

If elected she would be the first female Governor of North Carolina.

The dynamics of this race are of great interest to political watchers here.

[libnnc]

16. Both Perdue and Moore have endorsed Obama

Which I think is interesting.

[Blackhatjack]

17. A few more interesting stats re: NC from the 2006 US Census... LINK

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html

In 2006, NC had 8.85 mil residents, and grew by 10% from year 2000.

Population was 51% female, 21.7% black, 6.7% hispanic, 1.9% asian

[Zynx]

26. The problem is whites vote 75% Republican there.

We aren't the first ones to notice a large minority population in the South.

[Blackhatjack]

49. So direct us to the data backing up your allegation that 'whites vote 75% Republican'...

That is simply not true.

[Zynx]

52. Yes it is.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html

73%, excuse me for rounding a couple percent more.

[Blackhatjack]

55. You are in serious need of remedial math aside from the fact that is not what the exit poll says...

The exit poll you cited said 71% of respondents were white and 75% of them voted in the Presidential Election for Bush.

75% of 71%(white correspondents) is 51.83%, not 75% as you allege.

Even so, that exit poll does not state that this number 'voted Republican.'

IF you want to look at other races in NC during that election to determine whether white voters in NC voted Republican 75% of the time you will find you are wrong (unless you cherry-pick high Republican registration pockets in NC)

[Norrin Radd]

18. Hopefully they stay independent and don't try to infiltrate and steer

the Democratic Party toward the right.

[DCKit]

19. What if they're just lying to us (again)?

Too embarrassed to admit it, but afraid that their kids, dog and hamster will turn gay if they actually voted Democratic.

My sister and her husband were NC Republics. As late as 2006 we had a running conflict over *, Iraq, the economy and everything else the Republics have trashed over the years. Lo and behold, when I spoke to them a few months back, they not only denied being Republics, but claimed to have never voted Republic or supported anything Republic.

I guess it's not fashionable to be a Republican't anymore, but the delusional aspect of their conversion bothers me more than a little.

[Zynx]

21. Don't let those sorts of numbers fool you. West Virginia appears the same way

and we got creamed there in 2004.

[Lex]

23. Does West Virginia have a Dem Gov, and Dem controlled state legislature?

The Democrats do very well here on a state-wide level.

And on the national level, we've elected John Edwards as Senator in the not-too-distant past.

NC is not as "red" as people may think, if you look at the numbers.

[Zynx]

25. Yes and huge majorities in the state legislature.

Try again.

[Lex]

27. Try again? I was only asking you a quesiton.

Settle down, please.

[Zynx]

28. Also, NC is just as red as it looks. It voted for Bush by 12 points.

That's a bigger margin than we won California by. Is that vote any softer for them than California is for us? A couple of state level victories mean nothing. We have two Democratic Senators in North Dakota, a governor in Wyoming, etc.

[supernova]

29. You're not any big expert

Just a guy who likes numbers.

Have you ever spent any time here? (More than just on vacation?) Have you ever worked with people in the trenches of NC Politics?

Show me.

[Zynx]

31. I could say that about any state.

If North Carolina votes Democratic in an election we win by less than 8 points nationwide, color me surprised. What I do know is this, Wisconsin, a state I have lived in all my life, had a Republican governor and a heavily Republican legislature in 2000 and Gore won it. State level elections, based upon years and years and years of data, do not correlate to national elections that closely. I have a collection of electoral data on every congressional, senatorial, and gubernatorial election going back to the founding of the Republic. I never believe that I live in a time that is going to throw out every historical convention.

[supernova]

37. I could say the same about Wisconsin

What I do know is this, Wisconsin, a state I have lived in all my life, had a Republican governor and a heavily Republican legislature in 2000 and Gore won it.


You're contradicting yourself. Are you telling me you weren't surprised when Wisconsin went for Gore, but would be shocked!, SHOCKED! if NC were to do the same in 2008?

[BadgerLaw2010]

54. Um, look it up. Wisconsin is a

Why should he be surprised when Democrats win what is a coinflip state? Gore won by 5000 votes out of 2.5 million cast. Kerry won by 11,000 votes out of 3 million.

Winning Wisconsin is a 50/50 proposition that is decided on Election Day. North Carolina is a rather different animal and if you don't realize that, you are willfully ignorant.

[Lex]

30. How red does it look on this map?

[Zynx]

32. About as red as Tennessee. Do you think we can snatch Tennessee in a close election too?

[Lex]

35. Why not? How many points did Bill Clinton lose by in NC in '92?

So see, every election is not the same, and to write a clearly purple state off altogether sounds exactly like you just want the Dems to give up and go home.

[Zynx]

38. 4 points in '96 while winning by 8 nationwide. It was 12 more Republican than the nation that year.

Same goes for 2000. It was 9 points more Republican in 2004, but Edwards was on the ticket so that accounts for that. Without Gore on the ticket, Tennessee went back to voting pretty much how it had before the 1992-2000 period. Elections are not as dynamic as people think. Look at how little the map changed between 2000 and 2004.

I'm all in favor of going after Red states, but understand states do not vote in isolation. Do they vary a little bit from election to election? Sure, but not by hundreds of thousands of votes unless there is a huge national change. You have to control for the overall shift nationwide when looking at these numbers.

[yardwork]

42. There's been a huge national change since 2004.

I don't know if it is enough to tilt North Carolina blue in the general election, but I do expect Obama to do well here. Hillary, not so much. North Carolinians don't like the Clintons. The anti-Clinton crap started with his first run for president, when his status as a "draft-dodger" was played here again and again. I'm not saying it was fair.

Kerry lost here in 2004 but I don't think that he lost by as high a margin as the "official" tabulation indicated. We know for a fact that votes were disappeared in at least one county. There were serious voting irregularities in other counties as well.

North Carolina is experiencing several demographic trends that make it trend more Democratic in recent years.

1. There's been an enormous in-migration of Hispanics in the past five years. Despite Republican talking points, many of them are legal citizens who vote. Obama is steadily gaining support among Latina/o immigrants. The Republicans had a chance to grab this new demographic but they blew it with their bigoted stance on immigration.

2. There's a significant black population in North Carolina, and in the central Piedmont area of the state, they are professional, upper middle-class, educated people who strongly support Obama. Their neighbors are professional, upper middle-class, educated white and Asian peopel who also support Obama. None of these folks are the least bit concerned about Wright-gate. They are reliable liberal voters. The Piedmont is full of colleges and universities, and its full of voters who were born and raised in other states, even other countries.

3. The impoverished eastern coastal plain includes many African Americans. This population is similar in demographics to the folks who turned out in droves for Obama in South Carolina. Their neighbors include a lot of working class and middle-class whites who are extremely disenchanted with the loss of industry and demolished economy in their towns. They aren't too happy about NAFTA or the Clintons. They tend to be military families. A lot of the right-wing whites will always vote for the Republican. A surprisingly large number of them will not! For one thing, some of them intensely dislike McCain about the Vietnam normalization. A lot of them are intrigued and excited about Obama. I think they'll support him in the general election.

4. Most of western North Carolina is probably a Republican stronghold for a good while longer. It's the least populated part of the state. The cities, however, such as Asheville and Boone, are notably liberal.

[yardwork]

34. He's from Wisconsin. Knows all about NC, doncha know?

Those of us who actually live here are clueless about North Carolina, apparently.

[Lex]

36. He'd like the Democrats to give up and go home.

Nice of him to try to educate us about how futile it is to get out the vote for the Democrats.

[supernova]

39. He's too caught up in minutiae

to see the larger picture.

:D

Statistics work fine... until they don't. They don't account for variable moods in the public. They don't account for shifts in worldview.

[yardwork]

41. That's true but I think that Lex hit the right answer on this one.

Handwringing worriers telling us that "we can't win oh woe is us we can't win can't win can't win!!!"

[BadgerLaw2010]

51. Yeah, ignore all factual data and go on belief, then whine about losing and "cheating". Works well.

Losing these states is only surprising when you talk up in an online echo chamber how they are actually competitive when it is very clear from data that they are not. You win Southern states without a Southern candidate as a Democrat, you already have an enormous blowout elsewhere. These states vote Republican in presidential races regardless of their party registration and have done so since 1968 except for Carter.

Republicans have a better argument for being competitive in California than Democrats do in most of these states.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

40. Too embarassed to admit they are Rethugs

Plus, Repugs are known to brag about how they lie to pollsters to screw them up.

I have no doubt when they pull over that curtain, the so-called "Independants" will pretend elderly John is still McCain2000 and vote for him over Hillary or Barack.

[devilgrrl]

43. Now they're registering as "libertarians" or "Blue Dog Democrats" which is the same thing as the GOP

:popcorn:

[Thepricebreaker]

45. These are the repugs that are voting for Clinton to keep her in the race.. same in PA. Bank on it..

[Lex]

47. I read that Obama's up by 20 points here.

:shrug:

[Blackhatjack]

48. So non-residents of NC know all about NC voters and politics? I don't think so!

Democrats will win NC in 2008 for many reasons, the least of which is the unpopularity of Bush here. Independents have pretty well washed their hands of Bush and his ilk. And many military and their families are fed up with Bush, even if they cannot publicly state it.

Anyone who thinks NC is a 'red state' is just showing their ignorance.

NC can and will play an important role in who becomes the Dem Nominee.

[BadgerLaw2010]

53. I remember hearing the exact same things in '04 about NC, John Edwards, etc.

Bush unpopular, Research Triangle is massively liberal, NC is going blue, blah, blah...

You got blown out and lost by 435,000 votes, which was actually over 60,000 more than you lost by in 2000, despite people "knowing Bush" and having John Edwards on the ticket and all the other junk.

[Blackhatjack]

56. Nice repeat of Repub talking points drivel there... do you always repeat everything 'you hear?'

I gave you facts and statistics backed up by a reputable polling organization.

What did you give us? not much. You would have to be living in a cave to not know that Kerry decided not to campaign in NC and did not spend any $$ here despite Edwards popularity here.

If you are as 'informed' as you would like the rest of us to believe, then you already knew that --but you omitted any reference to any data which would undercut your smear allegations here.

[NJSecularist]

50. The problem is that come election day, all these Democrats don't show up.

According to 2004 exit polls:

- 40% of the NC electorate was Republican
- 39% of the NC electorate was Democrat
- 21% of the NC electorate was independent

Which means that even if there are more Democrats registered in North Carolina, a good amount of them don't show up on Election Day.

In addition, Kerry bled Democratic support in 2004. 16% of Democrats voted for Bush, while only 4% of Republicans voted for Kerry. The final nail in the coffin for us was the independent vote, which went 56-44 to George W.

We have a lot of work to do in this state to put it in play. Our candidate can't bleed Democratic support to the Republicans. And we need those who identify them as independents in that state to come over and vote for our ticket.

It's going to be an uphill battle, and I'm not convinced that our money isn't better spent elsewhere, such as Virginia.

[CRK7376]

57. About damn time

my state smartened up....Still way too many Repugs here and unfortunately, my Congressional Rep is still Repug...5th District, Virginia Foxx....