McCain's Man in Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr

[babylonsister]

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/davidcorn/2008/03/mccains-man-in-iraq-muqtada-al.html

McCain's Man in Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr

By David Corn | March 27, 2008


Here's a good justification for war: you create the conditions for genocide and then you have to stick around to prevent that genocide. In a foreign policy speech on Wednesday, Senator John McCain said,

We have incurred a moral responsibility in Iraq. It would be an unconscionable act of betrayal, a stain on our character as a great nation, if we were to walk away from the Iraqi people and consign them to the horrendous violence, ethnic cleansing, and possibly genocide that would follow a reckless, irresponsible, and premature withdrawal.

No one--that is, neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama--are calling for a reckless withdrawal. But who advocated the war that has already caused "horrendous violence" and "ethnic cleansing" for millions of Iraqis? McCain, for one. About 4 million Iraqis have been driven from their homes. Scores of thousands of Iraqi civilians--perhaps hundreds of thousands--are dead due to the war. Where was McCain's concern for such tragedy earlier?

In any event, what McCain has to say about the war will have less impact on his electoral prospects than what Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has to say. In recent days, due to the actions of Shiite militias, George W. Bush's so-called surge--mistakenly hailed by pundits and war-backers as a success--doesn't look like such a complete success. The fighting in Iraq this week shows that the fundamental conflicts of Iraq have not been addressed by the surge. The Iraqi government remains hapless and corrupt. Most Iraqis still go without many essential services. Violence--until the last few days--had dipped, but only down to 2005 levels. That was hardly a cause for celebration.

No matter what happens in the Democratic contest, no matter whom McCain ends up facing, his chances in November are tied directly to the war. He has no room for maneuvering. As a laissez-faire Republican who has little to say about the current economic crises, he will not be able to campaign as a Mr. Fixit for the economy. (If the economy is tanking, will voters appreciate his tough-love talk and calls for letting the market work?) Advantage: Democrat. On national security, all McCain really has is Iraq. If the situation there is relatively calm in the fall, he will be able claim credit for having pushed policies that led to this relative calm. If not, well...

Sadr and his lieutenants have more sway over the ground reality than the senator from Arizona. McCain better hope--or pray--that the Iraqis find reasons of their own for tamping down the violence in the fall. Just one word from Sadr could put McCain in deep electoral peril.