Those Who Control Oil and Water Will Control The World

[kpete]

Published on Sunday, March 30, 2008 by The Guardian/UK
Those Who Control Oil and Water Will Control The World
by John Gray

..........


While Western power declines, the rising powers are at odds with each other. China and India are rivals for oil and natural gas in central Asia. Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have clashed over underwater oil reserves in the South China Sea. Saudi Arabia and Iran are rivals in the Gulf, while Iran and Turkey are eyeing Iraq. Greater international co-operation seems the obvious solution, but the reality is that as the resources crunch bites more deeply, the world is becoming steadily more fragmented and divided.

We are a long way from the fantasy world of only a decade ago, when fashionable gurus were talking sagely of the knowledge economy. Then, we were told material resources did not matter any more - it was ideas that drove economic development. The business cycle had been left behind and an era of endless growth had arrived. Actually, the knowledge economy was an illusion created by cheap oil and cheap money and everlasting booms always end in tears. This is not the end of the world or of global capitalism, just history as usual.

What is different this time is climate change. Rising sea levels reduce food and fresh-water supplies, which may trigger large-scale movements of refugees from Africa and Asia into Europe. Global warming threatens energy supplies. As the fossil fuels of the past become more expensive, others, such as tar sands, are becoming more economically viable, but these alternative fuels are also dirtier than conventional oil.

In this round of the Great Game, energy shortage and global warming are reinforcing each another. The result can only be a growing risk of conflict. There were around 1.65 billion people in the world when the last round was played out. At the start of the 21st century, there are four times as many, struggling to secure their future in a world being changed out of recognition by climate change. It would be wise to plan for some more of history’s rhymes.

much more at:
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/03/30/7979/

[pbca]

1. One can only hope...

Canada (where I currently live) has huge untapped reserves of oil, natural gas, not to mention metals, lumber and vast quantities of water. Even if the Tar Sands get shut down - which is a possibility - the harvesting of the tar sands is absolutely destroying Alberta's environment, we keep finding more and more offshore oil and global warming is melting ice caps and permafrost making even more deposits available.

Still, if the end result is more power for Canada I can't help but think that's a good thing. The vast majority of people here are reasonable, kind and charitable and have no interest whatsoever in empire or controlling the fate of other nations : They are, however, very guarded about exporting resources and the impact on the environment (domestically). So, for example, any large diversions of water to anywhere is extremely unlikely.

[cnk_clark]

5. Think beyond the borders.

Canada is a net importer of food. Since Canada only has 2.1% of it's resources in agriculture it gets most of it's food from the US. The US needs fresh water to grow food. Canada has a very short growing season and the only reason Canada survived as a nation with the current population levels is due to importation of food.

If Canada didn't export it's resources to the US such as fuel then we wouldn't have the fuel to power the harvesting of food for Canada.

We are a world economy and dependent on each other to survive. Canada has always been a wonderful trading partner with the US and I can't see that ever ending.

That being said if the US were to ever collapse then you would see a lot of Canadians moving south since there is not enough land free from permafrost to feed them. That combined with a very short growing season will keep Canada a net importer of food.

It is a symbiotic relationship with Canada and the US. We need each other and cooperation is better than being adversaries.

Canada could not survive alone.

[pbca]

6. I'm not suggesting

at all that Canada and the US should be adversaries - but the relationship is changing.

For the most part the relationship has been fairly one sided: Canada has exported resources without 'market' compensation (for less than they were worth), Canada has changed domestic laws (such as drug policy) to appease the US etc.,

We are now building stronger ties with both the East (China and India), South (South America) and Europe - deliberately moving to end 'dependence' on a single source for anything such as food imports, or a single export market - so we'll still export to the US but we'll have other options. That's just basic survival, not a snub.

In terms of oil, I never suggested that Canada should stop exporting oil - but the Tar Sands may prove not worth it. They are leaving scorched earth, horribly polluted water and soaring cancer rates in their wake.

In terms of water: Obviously Canada wouldn't, as a country, refuse a thirsty man a glass of water but we also won't drain our lakes and destroy the ecosystems around them so that Las Vegas can have fountains, Palm Springs can have golf courses and everyone in the dessert southwest - From L.A. to Phoenix can have a swimming pool and a lawn. Americans need to learn that water has value, a value greater than oil and stop treating it like it's free and inexhaustible.

[cnk_clark]

17. The reason that it is one sided is that the US has 12 times the GDP of Canada

14 trillion compared to 1.2 trillion. New York and Texas have GDP's equal to all of Canada.

This is why there is an imbalance to the trade.

[BadgerLaw2010]

2. If you don't have water, you don't exactly need oil.

Our Great Lakes, by the way. And we're a bunch of Irish, Vikings and Germans, so bring it on. :evilgrin:

[pbca]

3. Huh?

Not sure what you mean...

The great lakes are a serious bone of contention. They are both Canadian and American - there has been a recent agreement that would regulate the lakes, help with pollution and stop major water diversions. All of the Canadian provinces have signed on and all of the US 'Great Lakes States' except Wisconsin. Wisconsin is, for some reason, holding out.

[marmar]

14. "And we're a bunch of Irish, Vikings and Germans"

Not all of us.

[cnk_clark]

4. Oil drives economies, water supports life.

If we run out of oil we will be relegated to the dark ages.

Think about it.

Oil allows us to have cars and trucks to transport people and products. If either of these were to stop, the economy of the US and the world would come to a halt. Unemployment would skyrocket and businesses would close their doors.

After there are no jobs to go to and no money to buy products such as food there we will be down to survival mode. Government will run out of money since that money is dependent on taxes. If no one is making any money there will be no taxes to pay.

Survival mode comes down to 3 basic needs. Water, food and shelter in that order.

Without water we die in a matter of days. Without food we die in a matter of weeks. We can live without shelter in temperate climates but not in the extreme latitudes but some shelter is required eventually.

Water will run out. Even now the southwest US is looking at a severe water shortage that is becoming a real big issue.

Since we are limited on the oil we can drill for in the US we will be ever more dependent on foreign supplies and supply is climbing rapidly as China and India increase demand.

Bottom line is that as the situation gets worse then current wants and desires will fall to the wayside as we get down to lack of basic needs.

No one will care about universal health care, the environment, global warming, abortion, the Iraq war or anything else as food and water will be the only thing that matters.

We will still care about gun control. In this case those who can control a gun will have a big advantage over those who don't.

As the Ogallala aquifer dries up after decades of over use and other smaller aquifers dry up there will be more and more people looking for fresh water. Expect this to happen.

Currently people insist on having their pools full and their back yard water features. Cities have fountains and large water featurs. This will only speed up the use of what fresh water we have left. As the population increases deamnd for freshwater will only get worse.

No one wants to give up on their luxuries so nature will force us to make some radical decisions. Nature always wins.

[pbca]

7. As above

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3081347&mesg_id=3081693

[liberal4truth]

19. Well said !!!

[roamer65]

8. Michigan is the "Saudi Arabia of fresh water".

But we need to make sure it stays here. No water diversion, ever!

[pbca]

9. Good for you!

I'm in Toronto (dual citizen) and am a die hard supporter of the Great Lakes accord. All we need now is for Wisconsin to get on board and it's a done deal: No water diversion, ever! AND stronger environmental protection for the lakes.

on edit: Though, Canada might beat out Michigan for the "Saudi Arabia of Fresh water" - we have hundreds of thousands of lakes that are not on the border.

[BadgerLaw2010]

11. Wisconsin is trying to get it done. The continental divide here creates political issues.

The basin stops abruptly at the edge of Milwaukee county, whereas the Milwaukee metro area does not. So you have a fair number of representatives who want more diversion.

It's a difficult issue, and is compounded by the general degree of stupidity in the State Legislature.

[pbca]

12. As I understand it

small scale local diversion would be allowed (within reason) - but not large scale projects (like a pipeline to the South West

[pbca]

10. Kicking n/t

[Cant trust em]

13. They practically do now

I they don't have all of the power at this point it's pretty clear that the ones who do will kowtow to their demands.

[klyon]

15. these are not really problems, solutions are already being created

Fighting for the last drops of oil is silly and futile. Solar power will set everyone free.
And water we can clean any water even go from your toilet back to your glass in a very short space. The problem is that we are on the wrong road and we need to wake-up and see what is possible and spend the money necessary to make it happen. As long as we are burning fossil fuels, we are messing up.
Time to get smart.

[cnk_clark]

16. The problem with soalr power is that it is not portable.

Solar powered cars will not happen with current technology. We need portable power sources and so far oil is the most efficient.

Then there is the drawbacks with solar power. Night time and cloudy weather. In hot climates solar is only 50% efficient as heat builds resistance in wire and that increases resistance which crates more heat. It is a vicious cycle.

I have a solar home and it is not the magic bullet everyone thinks it is. Even with my wind generators it is not much of a backup. I still have to use a lot of grid power especially at night when is dark and much colder.

We will need oil till we run out of it. Hopefull we will have an alternative portable power source by then.

[liberal4truth]

21. Alternative portable power: any ideas on that besides batteries?

I know folks talk about fusion power and other such things but I don't see anything else
even remotely on the near horizon, right now, that will replace oil or natural gas.

In personal cars, batteries might work well, but in trucks, tractors and locomotives,
there is nothing available that can sustain that kind of raw horsepower that is needed
to pull those kinds of heavy loads.

[Solon]

22. There is no replacement for oil...

Not for portable power, and I don't agree with that poster that "solar is the answer". The fact is that we are going to lose our cars and trucks, they are far too inefficient to use for personal transportation for extended periods of time. Even electric cars or trucks would be grossly inefficient, and a misuse of electrical power.

As far as trains, well, they can be electric, since they run on predictable routes, overhead wires or a third rail are used, this is tried and true technology for well over 50 years now. There is nothing wrong with electric motors, after all, they are just as powerful, or more so, than internal combustion engines, its just that the energy they use can't be stored at the same energy density as oil. Batteries are better than they have ever been, and they still aren't close to the same energy to weight ratio of oil.

However, trains wouldn't need batteries, but being powered by electricity, using overhead wires or a third rail seems to be the most efficient way to transport people or freight over land.

At least then we would have more options, yes, solar isn't an answer, that much is true, but at least, with electricity production, unlike transportation fuels, you can use a variety of different sources. Geothermal, Solar, Wind, hell even Wood, if necessary, even Nuclear, and maybe, sometime in the future, Fusion power.

The fact is that we have 3, count them, 3 extremely limited sources of energy that fuels 90% of EVERYTHING on the planet. Those three sources of energy are coal, oil, and natural gas, and all 3 are not going to last past the end of this century, and the last two won't last beyond the next 2 decades.

There is nothing that can really replace these three sources, so we are going to have to make hard choices in our lifestyles to make them more energy efficient and sustainable in the long run. We are in a runaway train headed towards a brick wall, the question is, when are we going to decide to hit the brakes?

[liberal4truth]

20. Where are we going to get all that power? Solar is great, but very expensive and uses up

lots of space to capture it.

[liberal4truth]

18. TankGirl: This sounds like something out of that old fantasy/sci-fi cartoon series....

...only the bad guys were called "Water and Power", in the comic-books.

I guess the comic books, like the boogieman and "monsters", AKA "Aliens",
sometimes do come true :-(

[flashl]

23. K&R