OK, if Bernanke says a recession is "possible," what does that really mean? ....

[marmar]

..... that it started six months ago? :scared:


from Bloomberg:


Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession (Update3)

By Scott Lanman

April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, unemployment and consumer spending will deteriorate.

``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke said in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee today. He also told lawmakers the Fed's emergency loan to Bear Stearns Cos. followed a March 13 warning by the company it ``would have to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy the next day.''

Bernanke, making his first extensive public comments since the Fed's decisions two weeks ago to back the takeover of Bear Stearns and lower interest rates by 0.75 percentage point, is trying to fend off criticism of the deal while struggling to prevent a deeper economic slump. He said he thought ``long and hard'' about the decision, and hopes not to undertake a similar rescue again.

While the Fed expects the economy to return to its long-term growth pace in 2009, ``in light of the recent turbulence in financial markets, the uncertainty attending this forecast is quite high and the risks remain to the downside,'' he said.

Treasury notes were little changed after Bernanke's remarks. The benchmark 10-year note yielded 3.55 percent at 10:06 a.m. in New York, about the same as late yesterday. Stocks fell.

``This is a much more pessimistic assessment of the economy than what the Fed had three months ago or six months ago,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, who previously worked as a senior economist in Congress. ``Certainly, the Fed and the capital markets have been surprised the economy has slowed so quickly.'' ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKXpOkaCuAy4&refer=home

[tama]

1. It means:

- Depression is certainty
- only 99% probability of systemic crisis of capitalism, fall of the Empire and EOTWAWKI.

[Systematic Chaos]

2. Is that all? Oh thank Jeebus!

I thought for a minute there we might be in some real trouble!! :P

[greyghost]

13. You betcha. This is economy is a HUGE shit sandwich and lowering

the interest rates is only going to make it worse long term.

[Contrary1]

3. It means that Americans should expect in the near future...

layoffs, higher prices, fewer jobs, more foreclosures, devalued dollar...

Oh wait. :eyes:

[MadHound]

4. Yup, that's exactly what it means,

And that Bernanke is desperately trying to talk the market and economy up in order to save the financial sector, ie the haves, before it all comes crashing down.

[durablend]

8. Just for another 7 months, mind you n/t

[Jack Rabbit]

5. That we're already in one and have been for some time?

Seems like a good answer.

[taught_me_patience]

6. Get ready for another rate cut

further devaluating the dollar and sparking inflation. Thanks asshole, my "savings" account is now 2.8%, while infation is 4%+. The more I save, the more I lose money.

[durablend]

9. Well there's your problem!

You're supposed to be SPENDING SPENDING SPENDING like a good patriotic American in debt up to his eyeballs. Never mind all this terrorist sympathizing "saving my money" nonsense!

:sarcasm:

[JDPriestly]

7. The low, low interest rates are hurting senior citizens

many of whom supplement Social Security with the interest on their life savings.

The goal of the Fed now is to push as many people as possible into investing in the stock market. That, despite the fact that American businesses are not profitable due to the enormous amounts of money and perks with which they regale their CEOs, also despite the fact the regulation of Wall Street is as lax as it has been since the Great Depression, and further despite the fact that many Americans are too naive about how business is done in other countries to appreciate the enormous risks they are taking in investing in "emerging markets" stocks.

In a public record filed in a court in the U.S., I read an affidavit signed by a man who did business both here and in India. His description of the corruption he had experienced in the Indian legal system caused shivers of fear to go up and down my spine. I hate to think what kind of legal guarantees back up contracts and business dealings in countries like Indian, China or even the U.S.S.R. Reasonable sounding laws on the books don't guarantee justice. Many, perhaps even most, countries in the world have a culture of cheating and corruption that infects every aspect of society including the legal system. In recent years, we have had a taste of that kind of culture in our own legal system. It is much worse in many other places in the world.

The possibilities for scams in "emerging market" stocks is infinite. Wait till the chickens come home to roost on this one.

Elderly people wisely tend to rely on bank accounts that provide interest for their income in their waning years. As they become impoverished, the cost of their poverty will ultimately fall upon the states who must provide medical care including nursing home care them once they are indigent. It will also cause a great reduction in the amount of property passed from middle class parents to their children. Thus, in the end these extremely low interest rates harm the middle class.

Lowering interest rates is another thoughtless, makeshift, short-term solution to the need for long-term government investment in the infrastructure including job creation in the U.S. But, by the time the failure of this policy becomes evident, the Bushies will be long gone to Paraguay.

[mountainvue]

10. We're in the thick of it. n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. That we ARE in a recession

that is the translation... and the Depression we Cassandras have been speaking 'bout is more than just possible

Oh and I hate to be right on this one

[NoGOPZone]

12. He means its possible the world will end before the recession becomes official

but that's the only chance of avoiding it.