Asia Times: Iran torpedoes US plans for Iraqi oil

[seafan]

This article gives a stunning glimpse of what has transpired this past week in Basra, and its implications on Bush's dwindling opportunity to seize total control of Iraq's oil.

Bush and Cheney are now cornered animals.


Iran now stands between Bush/Cheney and Iraq's oil resources.



Iran torpedoes US plans for Iraqi oil

By M K Bhadrakumar
April 3, 2008

By all accounts, Iran played a decisive role in hammering out the peace deal among the Shi'ite factions in Iraq. A bloody week of human killing on the Tigris River ended on Sunday. ..... The deal was brokered after negotiations in the holy city of Qom in Iran involving the two Shi'ite factions - the Da'wa Party and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) - which have been locked in conflict with Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in southern Iraq. It appears that one of the most shadowy figures of the Iranian security establishment, General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) personally mediated in the intra-Iraqi Shi'ite negotiations. Suleimani is in charge of the IRGC's operations abroad.
US military commanders routinely blame the Quds for all their woes in Iraq. The fact that the representatives of Da'wa and SIIC secretly traveled to Qom under the very nose of American and British intelligence and sought Quds mediation to broker a deal conveys a huge political message. Iran signals that security considerations rather than politics or religion prevailed.

.....

Conceivably, Tehran would have decided with its accumulated centuries-old Persian wisdom that certain things in life are always best left unspoken, especially stunning successes. Besides, it is far more productive to leave Washington to contemplate over happenings and draw the unavoidable conclusion that if it musters the courage to make that existential choice, Iran can be an immensely valuable factor of stability for Iraq. ..... Yet, all in all, (Ayatollah Ahmad ) Jannati politely refrained from expressing Iran's complete disapproval of the conduct of Maliki in carrying out the offensive as part of the US game plan to establish control of Basra, which is the principal artery for American oil majors to evacuate Iraqi oil. The Sadrists oppose the current plans for opening up the nationalized Iraqi oil industry to foreign exploitation.

.....

Out of the dramatic developments of the past week, several questions arise, the principal being that the Bush administration's triumphalism over the so-called Iraq "surge" strategy has become irredeemably farcical, and, two, US doublespeak has become badly exposed. What stands out is that Washington promoted the latest round of violence in Basra, whereas Iran cried halt to it. The awesome influence of Tehran has become all too apparent. How does Bush come to terms with it?
What has happened is essentially that Iran has frustrated the joint US-British objective of gaining control of Basra, without which the strategy of establishing control over the fabulous oil fields of southern Iraq will not work. Control of Basra is a pre-requisite before American oil majors make their multi-billion investments to kick start large-scale oil production in Iraq. Iraq's Southern Oil Company is headquartered in Basra. Highly strategic installations are concentrated in the region, such as pipeline networks, pumping stations, refineries and loading terminals. The American oil majors will insist on fastening these installations.

The game plan for control of Basra now needs to be reworked. The idea was to take Basra in hand now so that the Sadrists would be thwarted from taking over the local administration in elections in October - in other words, to ensure the political underpinning for Basra. All indications are that the Sadrists are riding a huge wave of popular support. They have caught the imagination of the poor, downtrodden, dispossessed masses in the majority Shi'ite community. They are hard to replace in democratic elections. The sense of frustration in Washington and London must be very deep that Basra is not yet fastened. Time is running out for Bush to make sure that his successor in the White House inherits an irreversible process in the US's Iraq policy.

.....

Bush hasn't yet spoken. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates put on a brave face, saying first-hand information was limited, but based on that, "they seem to have done a pretty good job". To be sure, Cheney must be furious that Tehran torpedoed the entire US strategy for Big Oil. He has had a hard time shepherding the pro-West Arab regimes in the region, especially Saudi Arabia, up to this point.
Besides, nothing infuriates Cheney more than when US oil interests are hit. Thus, the most critical few weeks in the decades-long US-Iran standoff may have just begun. Last week, five former US secretaries of state who served in Democratic and Republican administrations - Henry Kissinger, James Baker, Warren Christopher, Madeline Albright and Colin Powell - sat at a round-table discussion in Athens and reached a consensus to urge the next US administration to open a line of dialogue with Iran.

"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." ---Winston Churchill

[marmar]

1. You know what that means.....

:nuke:

[kitty1]

2. Yeah, there will be a massive explosion in Basra soon....

All Hell will break out there, and fingers will point to Iran.
This should occur within the next couple of weeks. Maybe an assasination of a key Shiite leader from someone in the Qud tribal faction.
Nothing like some good dissension to mess up peace negotiations between factions. How dare Iran settle a rift and bring resolution behind their backs.
Cheney and Co at the Pentagon are working the script now as we speak.

[Old and In the Way]

3. Sad that we need to go to the Asia Tiumes to read real news about Iraq.

Maybe Keith will talk about it, but it's not a game of checkers, so it can't be explained in a 30 second soundbite.

This administration can bluster attacks on Iran, but it's doubtful there's any coalition of the willing to follow along. Any air attacks will be viewed pretty negatively in the world press and it won't help the Republicans in the fall. And our troops will be on the receiving end of any Iranian counter-attack and I don't think the JCS will allow the troops to be used as a lightening rod for another Bush-Cheney wet dream.

The clocks running out on the Big Oil administration. Looks like the trillion dollar hostile acquisition of Iraqi National Oil might be falling apart. The stockholders of America, Inc. are going to be pissed when they realize what this pipedream cost them.

[Ghost Dog]

4. Just good quality Hong Kong-based media business, don't you think?

Wouldn't you turn, for example, to reliable, understandable European sources for European news?

http://www.atimes.com/mediakit/aboutus.html

Asia Times Online http://www.atimes.com and http://www.atchinese.com, is a quality Internet-only publication that reports and examines geopolitical, political, economic and business issues. We look at these issues from an Asian perspective; this distinguishes us from the mainstream English-language media, whose reporting on Asian matters is generally by Westerners, for Westerners. Our Chinese-language edition presents our articles to Chinese readers around the world.

We are served by more than 50 correspondents and contributors in 17 Asian countries, the US, and Europe. Additional content is provided by news services and renowned think tank and investment analysts and academics.

Asia Times Online was founded in the beginning of 1999 and is incorporated and duly registered in Hong Kong. It derives its revenues from advertising and the resale of original content to other publications and news services.

Historically, in our publication policy and editorial outlook, we are the successor of Asia Times, the Hong Kong/ Bangkok-based daily print newspaper founded in 1995 and associated with the Manager Media Group, which had to cease publication in the summer of 1997 as a result of the Asian financial crisis. Like its predecessor, Asia Times Online gives its readers worldwide an overview of Asian news events, looking behind the headlines that are the staple of the news agencies and networks.

Asia Times Online is reaching a rapidly increasing global readership. Our readers are people of influence - investors, executives, diplomats, academics, journalists - who need to know about Asian political, economic and business affairs. We have become a "must read" for Westerners and Asians who do business with each other.

[Kitty Herder]

5. This frightens me. It will make the Bushies more determined to

start a war with Iran. God, I hope they don't decide to do something stupid.

These bastards need to be impeached before they take into their peabrains to nuke Iran. I know they don't have much time left in office, but they don't need much time.

[Alexander]

6. Iran "torpedoes"? Who writes these headlines? Warmongers?

Why on earth would someone put the verb "torpedoes" in there, except to increase tension between the US and Iran?

[Elspeth]

7. So billions and billions have been spent on a failed gambit to take over Iraqi oil?

Morality of the war aside (and that's a big aside), how the hell did they LOSE this one?

[Orwellian_Ghost]

8. K&R n/t

[tpsbmam]

9. K&R n/t

[snot]

10. k&r'd. nt

[Canuckistanian]

11. Apt quote. K&R

Am I surprised that Iran holds so many cards in the Iraq region? Yes.

Am I surprised that the Bush administration has NO CLUE what's REALLY going on? Not so much.

[bluesmail]

12. K&R

stay tuned for the second half of As The World Burns

[Octafish]

13. That's why Bush has talked about rolling out the nukes.

The little turd from Crawford is afraid his friends' oil is going to get taken away from Them.

US doublespeak has become badly exposed.



The world is on to your gangster ass, Bush.

Thank you for the heads-up, seafan. This is the most important story for our nation's and our planet's futures.

[seafan]

14. You're welcome, Octafish. The next 9 months will be something.

We'll all hang in together. The BushGang will be on the run for the rest of their days. (Until they are hauled off to prison.)