BLOWOUT in the general.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

I don't use the SV numbers that came out today because it's a republican pollster, so let's say we can take these new CBS/NTY numbers from today at face value--they're more likely to be closer to a hypothetical vote:
Obama vs. McCain: Obama 47, McCain 42
Clinton vs. McCain: Clinton 48, McCain 43

Now, let's assume that people answering this hypothetical head-to head understand that if they're asked about a hypothetical head-to-head that doesn't include their candidate as the Democrat's nominee that they understand their candidate is no longer in the race. This sounds easy enough to grasp, that say if it's Clinton v. McCain in the hypothetical head-to-head that Obama wouldn't be a candidate, for example--but this point IS MISSED by all the talking heads screaming about the DEMOCRATIC DEFECTORS!

These numbers, which show each candidate's head-to-head, though, already have to figure in those democratic defectors. Think about this. That means that if the election were held today, AT THE HEIGHT OF INTRA-PARTY ACRIMONY, with actual defections most likely to occur, then the country still prefers Clinton or Obama by 5% over McCain.

Now, imagine what happens when tempers cool. When there's ANY degree of reconciliation within the Democrats. If we believe that 29% of Clinton supporters and 19% of Obama supporters truly are willing to defect now, might it be reasonable to assume that, say, at least half of them, when fully confronted with the meaning of what it would mean to vote McCain, would, in fact, actually NOT vote McCain.

Let's take those 19% of Obama supporters supposedly willing to defect, assume for the sake of argument that 8.5% (half) won't, figure that support for Obama and Clinton is roughly half-and-half in the party despite Obama's edge by a couple points, and figure the country is roughly half-D and half-R. (If you're following along, we're now talking about roughly 2% of the nation's electorate.) Let's even assume that half the Obama "defectors" who don't actually defect just stay home and don't then vote vote for Clinton either. That takes roughly 2% off McCain's popular vote, even if it doesn't add anything to the Clinton column. Remember: this is only now assuming half the Obama defectors do in fact actually defect to McCain and that the half that doesn't defect just stays home. It doesn't assume the non-defectors will vote for Clinton (when in fact many likely would). With these assumptions, the general suddenly starts from here:
Clinton 48%, McCain 41% (That's an ass-kicking by general election standards.)

Work it the same way for the Clinton defectors, same assumptions, and that'd make it:
Obama 47%, McCain 38% (An even bigger ass-kicking.)

In short, it's absolutely amazing that even at the height of infighting in our party, we take out McCain by 5% with either of our candidates--when actual defections would be most likely--and that, even better, if/when we're even semi-unified/healed/reconciled it points to a general election blow-out EVEN WHEN WE DON'T ASSUME A SINGLE HYPOTHETICAL DEFECTOR WOULD VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.

Expect the dirtiest campaign ever run from the republicans. They've surely figured this out, too.

[Old and In the Way]

1. I agree with your analysis.

I, too, think that the most fervent supporters of both candidates are willing to sandbag the polls to try to make their candidate look better. Because these results then get used by the candidate as a reason why the primary voter should be supporting him/her.

McCain is probably very happy to see the primary play out as long as possible. The polls make him look more competitive than he really is and the media is almost solely focusing on Hillary vs. Obama. John's deficiencies won't be really evaluated until after the Democratic candidate for the primary is known.

If McCain was going to gain ground, this was his time to do it. It's not happening and it'll only get worse for John from here out.

[brandon47]

2. the rasmussen

poll still has mccain up 5 over clinton and 3 over obama.
I wouldn't get over confident yet, he still has a lot of appeal.

[lpbk2713]

3. There's not much left of the rethuglican potty thanks to BushCo.

... and all the other RW thieves, liars, and sex offenders. No one but the hard core twenty percenters want to admit to being rethuglican. Even the RW Radio Hatemongers are careful about which wingnuts they have anything positive to say about these days. Just a few years from now the GOP will just be a small notation in the history books.

:rofl: :rofl: