Economists: No Doubt Now U.S. Is In Recession

[babylonsister]

FOCUS Economists say March payroll declines eliminate doubt of a recession
04.04.08, 11:47 AM ET


WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The US economy has now been shedding jobs for three consecutive months, nearly eliminating any doubt in the minds of economists that the US is in recession.

'Clear and unmistakable recession signals from the labor market,' Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ) economists called today's numbers.

'I don't quite understand why some protest the notion the US is in recession,' said Stephen Wieting of Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ).

'I think it's a very consistent report with the fundamental weakness for the economy,' said Harm Bandholz of Unicredit. 'I think more and more the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will call this a recession,' Bandholz said.

According to today's Labor Department report, the US economy lost 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March, compared to the 50,000 job loss economists polled by Thomson's IFR Markets had expected, although some individual forecasters had predicted an even larger loss.

February and March payrolls were revised down by 67,000 jobs for a total cumulative loss of 152,000 jobs.

more...

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/04/04/afx4855340.html

[CT08]

1. No doubt indeed.

It took Bear Stearns a $30B slap in the face to wake up and smell the coffee.

[whistle]

2. So, officially there have been two consecutive quarters of economic indicator downturns?

<snip>
The official definition comes from the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research): "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."

Or in the words of business cycle forecaster Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute: A recession is a "pronounced, pervasive and prolonged" slowdown in the economy. Pronounced means deep, pervasive means wide and prolonged means long.

To measure economic activity, the NBER uses four monthly indicators: payroll growth, real income growth, industrial output and real business sales.

<link to NBER site> http://www.nber.org/

But I don't see anything at the site about a recession! :yoiks:

[babylonsister]

3. I guess the job market tanking is evidence of a recession. nt

[DemocratInSoCal]

4. The Job Market Hasn't Tanked Yet

I still can't believe this is the worst there is.

Companies seem to be getting more aggressive, and I bet it will get much worse.

But if you watch CNBC, EVERY DAY Is A New Bottom!! RAH RAH RAH!!!