The recession is official (at least in the retail sector)

[nadinbrzezinski]

so was going through channels and stopped at CNBC where they were interviewing an analyst who was prattling bed, bad and beyond and how it is not dong well and how the rest of the retail sector is NOT doing well... and he mentioned that the recession is deep in the retail sector.

Now we had a newb post something to this effect the other day and some old hands here attack him and his credibility. First you folks owe him an
apology, after all when he wrote that this was not a normal spring.. from his experience, well now the analysts support his view.... it is NOT a normal spring

Oh and it goes without saying... buckle up... the fun has just begun

[Warpy]

1. No, it's not normal at all

Salespeople outnumber shoppers in every store but food stores. If people can possibly make do with what they have, they are going to do so. People out there are frightened. They know they're one company cutback away from losing everything they've managed to accumulate on debt.

They're noticing far too late that debt is going to bite them in the ass, so they're not taking more of it on.

If they want to rescue the consumer economy, they're going to have to do something about wages.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Agreed, yesterday I went to Target to get some meds

and some clothes I actually needed.

The place was quieter than a mausoleum...

Oh and I forgot, I also had to go get a new mag safe for the mac, lovely 'tiel chewed through it...

There were tour busses that are bringing shoppers from South of the Border... otherwise the mall was dead empty

[Elspeth]

3. Wow.

Was this sports arena?

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. fashion valley

and it makes sense if you think about it... it is San Diego's "Rodeo Drive.".. so you can bet the tenants will have the no customers shpiel

[Elspeth]

8. No kidding!

That Target was impossible to park in at Christmas.

[B Calm]

5. My employer is laying off workers this week. Non union plant and

ignoring senority. Employees are getting really pissed too! Hopefully they'll get pissed off enough to vote in a union!

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. and for their interests in November

[Zynx]

7. Retailer's stock prices have reflected the steepest retail recession in recent memory

for several months now. Look at clothing retailers from July to the present. Their stocks are down 40-50% each. There is no question we are in recession. The question is will this be more like 2001 or 1981.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Given where the fundamentals are... and I know you hate it when I say it

(and add the IMF to it now) will this be like the Great Depression?

Yes... the IMF actually used the D word last week, and I went... damn they're quoting me

:-)

[Zynx]

10. That's not what they said.

What they said was turmoil in the financial sector was the worst since the Depression.

The Depression was a very complicated phenomenon and despite bank losses being massive, there is no evidence that banks are going to suffer a systemwide series of failures. We are much better equipped now to handle the consequences of financial shocks than we were back then. Without the Fed and FDIC, there is little doubt we would have already slipped into Depression-like conditions, but because of them we can avoid anything near it.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. Once Again, Well Said Zynx

The Professor

[CatholicEdHead]

13. Yet will we learn from it or just take the Fed and FDIC for granted?

We can only socialize only so many losses.

[knitter4democracy]

12. Decent business at the stores today--but only on the sale racks.

Nordstrom Rack was decently busy with great sales, but the only things people were buying at Lane Bryant were items from the sale racks. Penzeys was dead, but it often is for some reason.

Lately, the busiest stores I've seen lately are grocery stores. Restaurants have been quite empty this week. I worry for the good ones.