Someone is Betting on a Recession...Guess Who?

[Stuart G]

Who bets day after day?
..Legalized gambling on an grand scale....
....Wall Street...
......Billions of dollars in a day........
........Hundreds of billions of dollars......
.......... Wall Street is betting on a deep recession......

.......Oh come on you will say...how do you know?

...Well, one stock sells cheap stuff, everyday stuff. Stuff people need to live on. And they sell it cheaper than anyone else..
...Not a particularly well liked company indeed. People hate it here, and everywhere..but guess what?

This stock has gone up 25 percent in the last 6 months? small retail outfit...Wallmart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WMT&t=6m

[ShaneGR]

1. Walmart isn't a bet, its a LOCK

They were pretty much the only national retailer, to finish ABOVE expectations over Christmas. They're also experiencing amazing international growth. Recession or not, if someone didn't care about politics and just wanted to invest in a sure thing, Walmart is a pretty good company to put your money into. That's just reality.

[Stuart G]

3. You are right...but.

I put this up here to show that professional gamblers, those that must win, if at all possible, are betting on this one. Mutual funds that show growth in stock value must improve....
..These assholes, the assholes of the assholes, will pile on each other as long as there is money to be made. That is the point. These assholes think there will be money made here. Fuck everyone else. Then get out...

...So who are the assholes betting on....It ain't the home industry, or banking...who gives a shit about them....
...It is the guy who sells everyday stuff the cheapest.
..........Like the gambler says...readem and weep.

[ShaneGR]

10. I have a mixed reaction to your post....

I understand your thesis, but keep in mind that there are millions upon millions upon millions of everyday Americans, good people, who are invested heavily into 401k and IRA accounts. Those account managers have the lives of millions of people in their hands. They're expected to diversify investment. It's not surprising to me that they'd put their money into a winner. It's not like Walmart is some new phenomenon. They've shown steady growth every year for like, well, since they were created decades ago.

Then come the politics, the negative impacts on community, the poor treatment of employees, etc. But the fact is, no matter how bad they are presumed to be, more people go to shop at Walmarts across the country every single year. Why? Cheap prices, quick service on the way in and on the way out. Simple as that.

But how has Walmart done it? Simple. They were making deals with the Chinese back when Bush 1 was in office. Why do you think the Walmart stores in China don't pay taxes. Because half the fucking countryside is employed because of Walmart, lol.

[Stuart G]

13. Shane, You tell me, what can we do?

Till the government owns the means of production, or the means of distribution, things ain't going to change..

Not cause I may or may not like it, cause the government just.. ain't going to take over....
...A. Means of Production
...B. Means of Distribution
...C. Distribute the profits to all people...

That way it might be fair.....
..I recall that it don't work....
...Someone tried it, and didn't like it...for years they tried it...killed millions for the idea...it sucked too.

[ShaneGR]

15. I completely disagree with you about government control

Look, we are a free market society. We have always been a free market society. Massive corporations have influenced America since its inception, whether they were called coporations or not. You think Washington lived in Mount Vernon by accident?

Do you really think it would be a good thing for the government to control Walmart? Ok, lets say the President who was a liberal moderate, fair minded, business savvy, and connected was running these government controlled corporations, that might be to your liking. But what about when the President or Congress is of a political persuasion you don't like. What then? Now you're screwed. I guarantee you someone like GWB could make the unthinkable happen, bankrupt Walmart. Meanwhile government control in our system creates weakness because every 2 years the entire system is under jeapordy from new elected officials. And if everything is government controlled, then the corporate jobs become political jobs not based on experience (for reference look up communist party of former soviet union or administration of George W Bush for political lackies getting undeserved positions of power.)

My overall take is that yes, the GWB years have been a complete disaster. Yes, we're in deep shit. But no, the economic system isnt going to end as we know it. We'll take our hits, people will suffer, but in the end we WILL overcome this time because, well, that's what this country has always done.

America..... FUCK YA!!!!

lol

[jedr]

2. I agree with your logic, but have heard right here that wal*mart;

is not doing well. Had a conversation with an out of town friend who told me he had been to wal*mart and the food end and the drug end had business, but the departments in between were empty. Things may be cheap, but when your filling the tanks on that 35K hemi, there ain't much left for anything.

[Stuart G]

5. Sure there aint much left. ...of course...

So, where are you going to buy your Cheerios?
....Big Foodstore at $4.50
....Wall Mart.....at $3.25

It is a crappy argument for a crappy store. but...
..save a buck and a quarter a few times, and you got a gallon of gas...

[Wcross]

4. Uh, look at the five year chart.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/5y/w/wmt

It all depends on which time period you look at.

[Stuart G]

6. Yes, of course...

Looking at it for five years,,well Wall Mart Sucks..yes..
...But the assholes of Wall Street don't look for 5 years..When things start to get better, (who knows when that will be?) out of that investment back to housing or banking, or whatever...
.......when that shit is low.... the assholes will buy when most won't,,,

[A HERETIC I AM]

7. Wal-Mart is basically dead money and has been for ten years.

A $.96/share dividend on a $55 stock is crap, (yield 1.75%) regardless if they are up 25% in the last 6 months. Particularly since WMT has been trading between $40 & $60 since 2000.

Edited to correct dividend from the quarterly figure to the annual.

[Stuart G]

9. I am not so sure...How about this...look during 90-93 recesson..

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WMT&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=


I don't know how to bring up charts...sorry...

and if you read the link, it had fantastic growth during the 90-93period of the last deep recession...charts can prove anything...

[A HERETIC I AM]

12. Exactly. If you bought it at $5 or $10 or even $20 you did fine, but

all the gas is gone from that stock.

I edited my post above. The $.24/share dividend is the quarterly (that's what Marketwatch quotes, not the annual). The Annual is $.96 but it still in only a 1.75% yield.

[ShaneGR]

11. I don't see loss there... dead money is a loser....

I see steady growth over time, especially in most retirement accounts.

[A HERETIC I AM]

14. If you like a 1.75% yield then you're all set.

It's a blue chip. It is a member of the Dow 30. It isn't going away and it has a decent credit rating, debt ratio and it's profitable. I didn't say it was a loser, I said it was dead money.

But it sure as hell isn't a growth stock. It was a growth issue in 1990.

There are plenty of other issues in the retail sleeve that beat the pants off Wal-Mart on total return.

[ShaneGR]

16. They're called Blue Chips

Because they're safe in a portfolio, and with matching funds from employer or interest bearing, they are a stable presence of growth over the longterm.

[A HERETIC I AM]

17. Thanks for the tip.

As I said, "it's a blue chip".

Value stocks most certainly have a place in a well diversified portfolio.

It is my opinion that there are better ones out there than WMT, that's all. And since it's in the Consumer Staples Sector, there are quite a few better ones.

And BTW, anyone getting shares of WMT "with matching funds from employer" are getting them inside a Mutual Fund or they work for Wal-Mart. A 401(K) plan that allows the purchase of individual issues would be extremely rare.

A Simple IRA, sure. As long as the custodian allows it.
A 401(K)? Not bloody likely.

[Stuart G]

8. In the long run, who really decides..If the thing is worth anything?

All of us in this here world...If they can keep selling the stuff cheap, and people will go there...then....
..that and only that will determine the price and the value...

You and me and us posters here, are tiny drop in the ocean of buyers of stuff..

I was there today..what a mess.
Still some athlete's foot cream I need was 40 percent less than the name brand. (Wall Mart Shit vs Wallgreen Shit)
...Same stuff....Saved 4 dollars. (one gallon of gas)