The End OF Liberal Elites

[marmar]

from Open Left:



The End OF Liberal Elites
by: Chris Bowers
Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 16:17

Since 1968, the discursive center of conservative electoral dominance has been a backlash narrative against people of color and "liberal elites." Over the past month, as seen in both the Jeremiah Wright and "bittergate" episodes, that narrative has also been the discursive center of attacks on Barack Obama. The double implication is that Obama is too black and too elitist to become President. This, of course, was always going to be the thematic center of attacks against Obama, given that he is an African-American university professor from Hyde Park. Given that Obama is the best demographic fit for conservative attacks against Democrats that has come along, possibly ever, it is pretty hard to fathom that they would abandon their tried and tested narratives now.

In The New Republic, John Judis is openly worrying that Obama is extremely vulnerable in a general election because these narratives will severely damage him among white working class voters. Meanwhile, the always helpful to Democrats Doug Schoen is urging Hillary Clinton, and really anyone running against Obama, to adopt these narratives against Obama 24-7. The basic premise in both arguments is that Obama is extremely vulnerable to these longstanding conservative narratives, and in fact using them might be the only way to defeat Obama. However, if there is one point I have tried to make in my blogging over the past three years, it is that the changing demographics of the electorate are rendering these conservative attacks increasingly ineffective, and that Democrats need no longer fear them as a result. We have reached a point where conservative backlash narratives against people of color and "liberal elites" appeal to such a small segment of the electorate, that Democrats no longer need them in order to win.


Consider the following:


* In 2006, Democrats won an 8.2% popular vote victory in House campaigns despite losing the white Protestant vote 61%-37%. Democrats even lost white evangelicals 70%-28%, but still had a banner year. In fact, Democrats won a landslide national victory despite splitting what many analysts have long considered the Holy Grail of swing groups, white Catholics, 50%-49%.

* In 2004, John Kerry took 41% of the vote among whites, and lost the popular vote by 2.46%. In 1988, Michael Dukakis took 40% of the white vote, but lost the popular vote by 7.72%. With only a 1% improvement among whites, John Kerry improved 5.26% overall (source).

* In 1992, whites were 87% of the electorate. In 2004, whites were 77% of the electorate, a 10% drop in just 12 years. Further, the three groups of whites among whom Democrats hold more than a 2-1 edge on Republicans, white union members, white non-Christians, and white LGBTs, are all increasing their share of the electorate and the white vote. Although not by a 2-1 margin, Democrats also do very well among white single women, who are also increasing their share of the electorate. ......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5189