"there wasn't going to be a recession"? Please?
I admit I have said many DU'rs were overreacting to the economic turmoil. I said that because so many were and still are saying we are headed for a depression. THAT is an overreaction. If I actually said "There will not be a recession" that I was obviously wrong and I apologize. I deserve to be called on the carpet for saying such a thing, but I do not recall ever saying that. I remember the thread you are referring to, however. It was a fumbled attempt to draw attention to the basic hum of daily commerce. A hum that has certainly slowed, but it will not stop. That was the point I was trying to make in that thread.
I live in an area of the country with a higher rate of unemployment than the national average, no industry of any scale at all outside the building industry (which has ground to a halt), led the nation in February in foreclosures, has had one of the most dramatic drop-offs in real estate values and a massive inventory of new, unoccupied homes. Yet the overwhelming majority of people in Lee County, Fla. still get up and go to work every day.
There was a time, maybe even as recently as 20 years ago, that an entrepreneur could have a great idea, start a small business to make that idea reality, be successful and create jobs for thousands in the process.
It can still be done. It is being done every day. I completely disagree that it is not possible to start a small business and be successful at it.
I wonder if you are hearing the sounds of small businesses being created. I certainly don't hear it, or see it for that matter.
Businesses start up every day. And they fail every day. The successful keep trying, even through failure. The unsuccessful do not.
These jobs are not coming back, and they won't come back, because there is no way in our present economy to create them anymore. Small businesses can't get off the ground, and our government cannot possibly spend enough to create them itself, as was done in the thirties and forties. We have national and personal debt on a level not seen before in human history.
Below is a snip from the article about AT&T, linked in the OP;
The nation's largest telecommunications provider said most of the layoffs will be among managers, particularly in wireline operations, including local phone service and service for large corporate customers. Jobs in corporate functions in like finance will also be cut.
"Even with the reductions announced today, we expect our head count overall to remain stable this year as we hire additional employees to support growth areas like wireless and TV," said spokesman Michael Coe.
That's 4600 employees, out of a company that employs almost 310,000 people. The article quotes their spokesman as saying they "expect our head count overall to remain stable this year as we hire additional employees". Again, why do you think these jobs will not ever come back or at least be replaced with other jobs?
One needs only look at the reaction of the airline industry to the "recession": bankruptcies and mergers. Many, many more jobs lost.
Finnfan, you have to admit - really - that the North American Airline Industry is a really bad example to use. When you book a flight, do you seek out the most expensive fare? If not, why not? Don't the Union mechanics, Pilots, Flight Attendants, Ground Personnel and their retired brethren deserve a decent wage? Personally, I think domestic commercial airline seats should be priced like Taxi Cab fares. Your choice would then be limited to when you fly, not how much you pay. The rates would all be the same, regardless of carrier. They could begin to compete on how well they treated you again. The airlines could charge a set price to move a persons butt per mile and that rate would be based on actual costs, not an absurdly complex, tiered rate system like exists today. Fares would go up, but Airlines would be solvent again.
I am frustrated because smart people like you, who have a vested interest in believing in the status quo, are ignoring the the growing mountain of evidence that this is going very bad for a very long time.
First of all, I'm flattered and thanks for the compliment. But why do you say I have a "vested interest in believing the status quo"? What could possibly be my vested interest in believing everything is fine? Things are not fine by a long stretch, but they are not the total shambles and clusterfuck many on this message board insist they are.
People like you are on Wall Street right now driving stock prices up 220 pts. because one company's earnings were slightly better than expected while looking past news such as what the OP posted.
Again, I'm flattered but I do not work on Wall Street nor is it in my power to have even the slightest effect on the bid/ask spread of a particular stock. Besides, if people like me were on Wall Street, the market would have been up 440! (j/k) But I concede the larger point you are alluding to. The psychology that drives stock prices - why one goes up one day and down the next, why a share goes up on bad news and others down on good news even perplexes people who have been in the business for decades. There are two major factors that drive all markets: Fear and Greed. That's it. It's as simple as that. Prices are bid down because people fear for the future and fear they might get screwed. Prices are bid up because greed demands getting while the getting is good. If a company lays off 4600 workers and that layoff means they will remain profitable, or at the very least, solvent, traders react accordingly. If AT&T had announced a loss for the last quarter and also announced they were going to hire 4600 people without a justifiable reason, what would have been the result?
I think that you are a good person, but I think you're deluding yourself. This is not remotely like 20 years ago. It's not even remotely like 80 years ago. The rules of the market will not hold anymore. The sooner we can admit that, the better.
Again, thanks for the compliment. I think you are a good and decent person also. If I am deluded - well, time will tell. If you and the others that agree with what you are saying are correct, and the economy sinks into an abyss, it is likely you'll never hear from me again because Internet access will be the first luxury I cut loose. As far as the rules of the market are concerned, I beg to differ. Each and every time you hear of malfeasance, it is a sign the system is working. Every time bad news comes out, it is a sign the system is operating properly. Every time you hear of a lawsuit filed against a financial firm, or a trader being arrested, or indictments being handed down against principals of a company, it is a sign the rules are working. The system constantly needs tweaking and it is constantly tweaked. Does it need improvement? Absolutely. Is it fucked up in some ways? Damned straight. Is it completely broken? No. Not by a long shot.
Contrary to the opinion of the regular posters on the SMW thread and other threads on this board, the United States Financial Markets are the envy of the world. I've said this before and I'll say it again; They are incredibly deep, very transparent, extremely well regulated, politically stable and have a reliable court system in which to settle disputes. The American people are known the world around as being hard working and, domestically anyway, relatively peaceful. We have regular, non-violent transfers of political power and the population reliably and voluntarily pays taxes on their wages. We are innovative, generous, industrious and clever and our nation and businesses will continue to be so for a very long time to come. This economic slowdown will be but a blip on the chart of history in 20 years.
If that sounds like a Rethug talking, well...excuse me. Being a Capitalist and a Progressive are not mutually exclusive.