Buckle In: It's Going to Be A Rough Summer for Flying

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The Wall Street Journal

THE MIDDLE SEAT
By SCOTT MCCARTNEY

Buckle In: It's Going to Be A Rough Summer for Flying
Yes, It Can Get Even Worse As Congestion and Fares Rise; Packing Them In at Peak Hours
April 22, 2008; Page D1

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Recent efforts to ease congestion at some airports may not improve things much, either. Consider New York-area airports, the hub of congestion last year. To reduce rampant air-travel delays, the Federal Aviation Administration has imposed peak-hour caps on the number of New York flights this summer. Yet airline schedules have more flights, not fewer. The number of departures scheduled in July at New York's three main airports is higher by nearly 2%, or an average 28 additional flights per day, according to data compiled by consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Schedules aren't as full between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. because of caps, and that should reduce delays in theory. But airlines have pumped in lots more flights on either side of the late-afternoon rush, risking even more congestion.

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In addition, the FAA has added uncertainty for travelers by suddenly changing how it handles maintenance oversight. That move was spawned by criticism that inspectors were too cozy with airlines. A series of sudden aircraft groundings imposed by the FAA wreaked havoc for hundreds of thousands of travelers this spring. Last Friday, the government said it will study how it handled forced groundings for maintenance compliance, some of which didn't involve immediate flight safety concerns. But more disruption could arise this summer.

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In the first two months of the year, average domestic fares were up 5.7% compared with last year, according to the Air Transport Association, and airlines have pushed through more price increases for summer travel. Farecast.com says summer flights to Europe, hit with hefty fuel surcharges, are priced about 10% higher this year, compared with last summer. There are some hopeful changes for travelers this summer. The Transportation Security Administration is deploying new equipment at many airports and trying out new configurations of security lanes to speed up screening. Perhaps more significantly, the TSA is sending all of its screeners to 12 hours of retraining this year. Also, TSA chief Kip Hawley says checkpoints should be fully staffed this year by Memorial Day.

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Last year, the number of passengers involuntarily bumped from flights for which they had bought confirmed tickets was up 48% in the third quarter over 2006. Travelers complained that airlines had too much financial incentive to bump low-fare customers for high-dollar last-minute business travelers because compensation they had to pay involuntarily bumped passengers hadn't increased in 30 years. The DOT agreed, and next month will double what airlines have to pay bumped passengers. Compensation could be as much as $800, depending on how long it takes the airline to reroute customers to their destinations. In addition, the new rule includes more regional jets -- it applies to any flight with 30 seats or more, instead of 60 seats or more in the past. (Remember, customers involuntarily bumped can demand cash rather than vouchers toward future trips.)

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Despite the higher fares, travelers are still buying trans-Atlantic tickets and airlines are continuing to add new flights. Trans-Atlantic capacity, measured in available seat-miles, will be up 6.4% this summer from last year, and fares will be higher, too, according to Craig Jenks, president of Airline/Aircraft Projects Inc., his consulting firm. One way to beat high prices: Book flights to new destinations where airlines haven't yet built consistent traffic. Delta Air Lines Inc., for example, added flights to Lyon, France, and Paris Orly Airport this year from New York. For a June 20-27 round trip, a Dallas-Amsterdam ticket was priced at $1,355 on KLM last week, 20% less than a nonstop Dallas-Paris ticket ($1,692 on American). Air France's Los Angeles-London flight for those dates was priced at $1,394, while Air France's Los Angeles-Paris nonstop was $1,680. Cheaper, but by no means cheap.


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