McCain's Peak?

[babylonsister]

http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/mccain.php

McCain's Peak?


Even with the Democratic Party locked in a fierce civil war, John McCain still hasn't pulled ahead of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in national polls.

The Democratic primary campaign - divisive, bitter, and seemingly endless - has made many Republicans optimistic about their party's prospects for retaining the White House this November. But the numbers still seem to tell a different story -- and not just secondary indicators like the enormous gap between McCain's fundraising and the dollars his Democratic rivals are raking in, or the underlying economic realities that will make this a tough year for the GOP no matter what. The polls themselves aren't running McCain's way, or at least not to the extent that would justify the current wave of conservative optimism about November.

Now of course no poll taken in April can tell us all that much about a vote that's held in November: Elections that look close can turn into routs and vice versa, and huge polling margins can vanish in the blink of an eye. (Ask Michael Dukakis how well his seventeen-point margin from early-summer 1988 held up in the end.) But by all rights, this ought to be a peak time for McCain's numbers - not the peak, necessarily, but certainly a high point. His right-wing critics are making nice with him, his favorable ratings are sky-high, and his opponents are too busy driving each other's negative ratings upward to spend any time (or money, more importantly) putting a dent in his halo. Moreoever, the Democrats' intra-party tensions are bound to diminish once the party picks a nominee: At least some of the Hillary supporters who tell pollsters that they'd vote for McCain over Obama may actually follow through on that pledge, but a lot of today's McCainocrats will come home to the Democratic fold when all is said and done.

Yet even with all this going for him, McCain's poll numbers are bumping up against the same 45 percent ceiling that they've been hitting since December. If the election were held today - a pretty good day for McCain, all things considered - he'd probably lose to Obama, and might lose to Clinton as well. That doesn't mean he will lose, by any stretch, but it certainly doesn't bode well for November.

[Thepricebreaker]

1. There are a few polls he is ahead of both, and behind both.

Considering he gets zero press I think he is doing way better then expected. It alarms me.

[Lochloosa]

2. Not me. When we finally have a nominee his ass is done.

A little quote from a speech he gave in YOUNGSTOWN,OHIO.


«The biggest problem is not so much what's happened with free trade, but our inability to adjust to a new world economy,» McCain said during a town hall-style meeting at Youngstown State University.

«I think the answer is to understand that, free trade or not, we are in an information and technology revolution,» he said. «So we want people to be part of that revolution, and we've got to be part of that new economy, rather than try to cling to an old economy.

. . .

«I understand how emotional that issue and that agreement is, and those letters are,» he said. «There have been inadequacies, there has been dumping in our markets and there have been unequal wages. ... I believe the overall result of NAFTA has been an increase in economic benefits to our country,» he said.


«I can't look you in the eye and tell you that I believe those jobs are coming back,» McCain said. «What we've got to do is provide them with education and training programs that work.


He just does not get it!

[Quantess]

3. He's doing well BECAUSE he isn't getting much attention, IMHO.

Once people get toknow him a little better, his popularity will slide, I would bet.

[hatrack]

4. In Ohio, where one in ten residents are on food stamps, he said that they just need to retrain . . .

Anybody who is that fucking CLUELESS on the economy isn't even going to make it close.

The economy is not going to go away as an issue between now and November. There is lots and lots of dust left to settle - in housing, in banking, in energy and in job losses - and it's not going to be pretty when it does, now matter how loud the Happy-Squawk gets on cable business channels.

So if McLame wants to go out and give the bootstrap speech, or tell us all to take our $600 bucks and shut up, cool. All it's going to show is that he's nearly as clueless as President Munsingwear J. Skidmark III.

[autorank]

5. k*r Finally, some analysis that's useful.

I've been waiting for this to show up. It's obvious and that's why it's so good.

Huge slanderthon in the Democratic party, one direction I might add but John Q Citizen
can barely stomach McCain. He has no cameras focused on him and no opposition. This should
be his best time against the widely disliked Clinton and relatively new to the scene Obama.

Not good for him.

That's why HRC is clawing so viciously - whoever wins the Democratic primary should win it all.