Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh

[seemslikeadream]

:shrug:






http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23583376-7583,00.html


Phil Chapman | April 23, 2008
THE scariest photo I have seen on the internet is www.spaceweather.com where you will find a real-time image of the sun from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, located in deep space at the equilibrium point between solar and terrestrial gravity.

What is scary about the picture is that there is only one tiny sunspot.

Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously.

All four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California) report that it cooled by about 0.7C in 2007. This is the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and it puts us back where we were in 1930. If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.

There is also plenty of anecdotal evidence that 2007 was exceptionally cold. It snowed in Baghdad for the first time in centuries, the winter in China was simply terrible and the extent of Antarctic sea ice in the austral winter was the greatest on record since James Cook discovered the place in 1770.

It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years.

This is where SOHO comes in. The sunspot number follows a cycle of somewhat variable length, averaging 11 years. The most recent minimum was in March last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a gradual build-up in sunspot numbers.

[soothsayer]

1. Well, we're (the earth is) moving into the galactic center--what the ancients called

'the dark plane'. Lots of cosmic rays, so lots of weirdness. It's probably why the whole solar system is heating up. Interesting times ahead!

[Echo In Light]

32. Crash helmets at the ready. Prepare to surge to sub-light speed...

"...engage."

[frogcycle]

34. bs. you have ANY idea

of the actual pace of that move to the galactic center?

[L. Coyote]

38. Your money is moving into the pockets of idiots if

you paid for Walter's pseudo-science idea. His math is wrong, he knows it, and this idea still won't go away. It does make good money though.

[The Straight Story]

2. Don't get me started on it all

:)

[seemslikeadream]

3. I figured we just didn't have enough to worry about

[The Straight Story]

8. We have plenty to worry about IMHO

And it is not all related to us Humans.

I recall hearing about all this in the 70's - global cooling, mother earth, etc.

Back then they told us that the earth was getting colder and to worry about a new ice age.

And the fundie Christians were telling us that the people worshiping the earth would someday use that to limit our freedoms, etc and so on.

Now I hear about global warming, how I can fight it by doing x/y/z.

In my 42 years of life I have heard that we are cooling, we are getting hotter, we humans have an impact, we don't, etc and so on - all from different scientists and religious leaders.

In the end I have no idea :)

[orleans]

16. and now i know how old you are.

and you're younger than me!
:mad:








just kidding. of course.

[Virginia Dare]

37. Why worry about things you can't control?

It's clear the Earth's atmosphere is changing, and there's nothing that's going to stop that, and probably nothing at this point that will even slow it down. Our only option is to try and prepare for changes ahead to the degree that we can.

Of course, being humans we won't, we'll just adapt to what comes, probably.

[grasswire]

4. the prediction for May 1 is 47 degrees here!

We've been way too cold for weeks now, here in the PNW.

[leftofthedial]

5. I agree we need t be concerned about the sun, but...

"the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade" seems to be contradicted by every measurement I've read or seen.

[Lasher]

26. Same here.

The last coupla winters here have been exceptionally mild. If the earth isn't getting any warmer, then you have to wonder how all that arctic ice is melting.

[alarimer]

39. It is completely contrary to all the evidence.

How do they explain melting permafrost then, if it is gettting cold? Or the glaciers retreating?

[leftofthedial]

47. the same way raygun "explained" trees causing pollution

just make up shit and throw it out there, use the confusion to push your agenda forward



That said, we well could trigger a new ice age with global warming. of course most of us will be dead before then, so who cares?

[Longtooth]

6. Interesting, very interesting.

[Elidor]

7. If we could conquer the ice age with global warming...

We could all kick back and relax. Suddenly, SUVs would be patriotic.

Actually, one possible feature of global warming is a destabilization of temperature norms, resulting in extremes of hot and cold. Combine that with a colder sun and things could get interesting.

[havocmom]

20. Throw in shrinking ice caps, artic winds picking up more moisture...

Hell, the air traffic at O'Hare will really get muddled up as the snow keeps blowing into Chicago and Denver. The airlines think they have problems now.

[dweller]

9. as important as we wish to be in the scheme of things

Mother Earth may have plans of her own that don't include us in the big picture.


dp

[Delphinus]

30. dweller,

that's a very important thing for us to remember.

[lordsummerisle]

10. Dude, Where's My Blanket?? n/t

[HeresyLives]

11. No ice age

The Australian publishes deliberate misuse of scientific data

http://greensblog.org/2008/04/23/the-australian-publishes-deliberate-misuse-of-scientific-data/

[seemslikeadream]

13. There sure is a difference of opinion of this guy

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/24/2225980.htm

[HeresyLives]

14. I think they are relying on the idea

he's an astronaut.

But astronauts have been known to go off the rails before. I remember one of them became a UFO hunter, and one went looking for Noah's Ark on Mount Arafat, and we all know about the woman who supposedly drove a long way in diapers over a love triangle.

Being an astronaut doesn't guarantee your intelligence or your sanity.

[Javaman]

45. Wait wait wait...Diapers????????? nt

[varkam]

22. Thanks for that link, and welcome to DU!

:toast:

[trotsky]

33. Thank you for bringing facts into this thread.

I'm sure we haven't seen the last of this junk science - Republicans and oil companies will be latching on to it for sure.

[Fumesucker]

12. The minimum in the current 11 year sunspot cycle

Was probably in late 2007..

Few sunspots are expected at this point in the cycle.

We are well above the very few sunspots present during the Maunder Minimum from about 1650 to 1700.

[mcctatas]

15. Either way, global warming or cooling...

we're fucked! I almost feel guilty for having had children, what does the not so distant future hold for them? :scared:

[dweller]

17. pretty much what your parents wished when they looked at you

having sent their genes into the next generation.

you have to hope. What else ya got?
dp

[mcctatas]

18. ...

I know I've been in GD:P too much, my first thought was to be offended;)

[dweller]

19. i think my parents were too...

but they've grown to accept me.

;)

dp

[Hugabear]

21. Oh please, this is nothing but rubbish, nonsense

This guy's background is in physics, math, and astronautics. Looks like he's simply cherry-picking data and misinterpreting stats to come to an erroneous conclusion. I'll listen to the 99% of climatologists, meteorologists, and other experienced scientists who disagree with this idiot. One year of cooler temperatures does not make a trend, nor does a snapshot of the sun.

[alfredo]

23. He's probably cited by the right wing here.

[lapfog_1]

24. And it's NOT one year, it's one MONTH compared

year over year (Jan 2008 to Jan 2007). If one compares March instead, you have much different data.

2007 was the second warmest year on record.

[Eurobabe]

25. Great, then that means more skiing in the Alps!

Bring it on!

[thecrow]

27. Exhibit A

http://www.environment.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/report/antarctic-1.html

Australia State of the Environment 2006
Independent report to the Australian Government Minister for the Environment and Heritage
Beeton RJS (Bob), Buckley Kristal I, Jones Gary J, Morgan Denise, Reichelt Russell E, Trewin Dennis
(2006 Australian State of the Environment Committee), 2006

10.1 Climate, atmosphere and the ice

Figure 37: Change in the extent of sea ice, 1850–2000


Note: Methanesulphonic Acid (MSA) records from an ice core from Law Dome in East Antarctica and inferred northern most latitude extent of winter sea ice (SIE) off East Antarctica between 80°E and 140°E. The MSA record covers the period 1841 to 1995. The light blue line is the 3-year running mean MSA measurement and the purple line is the 20-year running average. The red line is the maximum winter sea ice extent measured by passive microwave between 1973 and 1994 (J. Jacka unpublished data).
Source: Curran et al (2003)

Sub-Antarctic glaciers tell a more consistent story. Heard Island’s glaciers have retreated in extent since 1947, and the total land area covered by glaciers has decreased from 288 square kilometres in 1947 to 253 square kilometres in 2000 (Ruddell 2006). Thirty-five square kilometres of new terrain, including several large lagoons, have been exposed by ice retreat. This represents nearly 10 per cent of the total area of the island. Areas of vegetation are increasing as a consequence.

Some signals are starting to emerge from the study of Australia’s Antarctic Territory. Recent surveys of the Southern Ocean off East Antarctica have revealed that the deep ocean water is markedly fresher and less dense than expected and has become progressively so over the last 30 years. The exact causes of these changes are not yet resolved, but the results indicate that the Southern Ocean is changing much more rapidly than previously considered likely (Rintoul in press).

These changes are significant. Variations in the winter extent of sea ice have a key role in global oceanic circulation. They are thought to have effects on the productivity of algal growth under the ice and the reproduction of Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba), a small, highly abundant crustacean which is a major component of the Antarctic food chain.

[aquart]

28. So DON'T throw out the sweaters because I'll need them?

[canetoad]

29. Just saying

The Australian is Murdoch's flagship national paper. I'd be double, triple, quadruple checking every fact and it's source before I got excited over anything in it.

[MadHound]

31. The guy lost me when he claimed that avg temperature has declined.

Sorry, but go to NOAA or any other organization that is seriously into metereology and they will tell you that the earth's average temperature has risen slowly but steadily for the past thirty years. Hell, the '90s were the hottest decade in a thousand years, and the '00s are shaping up to be right up there with the '90s.

This is simply another global climate change denier whose trying to be adept at manipulating data for his own ends, and is failing miserably.

[mainegreen]

35. What's scary is that someone published this rubbish. n/t

[Hugabear]

36. Not only is it scary, it's DANGEROUS

This isn't just a case of scientific dishonesty. This kind of nonsense can influence government policies, which in turn can help cause unrepairable harm to the planet.

[Shoelace]

41. Latest from NCDC: Second warmest March on record: Graph shows this

globally. Thought I'd throw this in because the global "cool-aid" is one of the deniers most used modes of disinformation these days.

Caveat being that global warming actually could cause another "ice age" by shutting down the Thermohaline circulation and/or AMOC (commonly called the "gulf stream") from all that melted ice in the Arctic.
North America has seen cooler temps because of a very strong la Nina which persisted longer than usual. It's beginning to wane now and we might see el Nino before long which will warm sea surface temps, create more extreme weather, etc.

Here's the latest graph for this last March and you can plainly see which areas of the globe are heating up the fastest.



Dr. Master's blog on Wunderground has an excellent explanation of the effects of la Nina, how it works and more.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=927&tstamp=200804

[truebrit71]

40. An article in Rupert Murdoch's number one Oz paper says we're getting colder?

...Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight....other than the manipulation/lying about facts what else could possibly have tipped us off that this article is complete bullshit?

:thumbdown:

[Radical Activist]

42. Wasn't 1930 a dust bowl year because things were abnormally hot?

Saying we're at 1930 temps is a little misleading. NASA and climatologists disagree with the claim about cooling over the past decade. This article is ridiculous.

[slowry]

43. They ran a similar article a couple months back, using 1997/8 as a "point of reference".

I guess they realized that was too obvious, so this is the new propaganda technique.

[seemslikeadream]

44. Thanks to everyone that has responded

I believe it's good to know rather than not know what is being published so that we can have the opportunity to refute.

[avenger64]

46. Temporary cooling reversals (or spikes in heat) ....

... do not make a trend. The temperature has been above the historical norm for the last 27 years. Right now, solar activity is at a cyclical minimum, as explained http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/">here:

"The sun is another source of natural global temperature variability. Figure 3, based on an analysis of satellite measurements by Richard Willson, shows that 2007 is at the minimum of the current 10-11 year solar cycle. Another analysis of the satellite data (not illustrated here) by Judith Lean has the 2007 solar irradiance minimum slightly lower than the two prior minima in the satellite era. The differences between the two analyses are a result primarily of the lack of accurate absolute calibrations and inadequate overlap of measurements by successive satellites.

This cyclic solar variability yields a climate forcing change of about 0.3 W/m2 between solar maxima and solar minima. (Although solar irradiance of an area perpendicular to the solar beam is about 1366 W/m2, the absorption of solar energy averaged over day and night and the Earth's surface is about 240 W/m2.) Several analyses have extracted empirical global temperature variations of amplitude about 0.1°C associated with the 10-11 year solar cycle, a magnitude consistent with climate model simulations, but this signal is difficult to disentangle from other causes of global temperature change, including unforced chaotic fluctuations.


The solar minimum forcing is thus about 0.15 W/m2 relative to the mean solar forcing. For comparison, the human-made GHG climate forcing is now increasing at a rate of about 0.3 W/m2 per decade (Hansen & Sato 2004). If the sun were to remain "stuck" in its present minimum for several decades, as has been suggested (e.g., Independent story) in analogy to the solar Maunder Minimum of the seventeenth century, that negative forcing would be balanced by a 5-year increase of GHGs. Thus, in the current era of rapidly increasing GHGs, such solar variations cannot have a substantial impact on long-term global warming trends. Furthermore, recent sighting of the first sunspot of reversed polarity (reported Jan. 4 by, e.g., SpaceWeather.com and NOAA) signifies that the ~ 4-year period of increasing solar irradiance is about to get underway. "

Global warming is still overcoming the cooling La Nina effect, and the cyclical solar minima, to force temperatures above the historical norm.

Of course, we're still going to have another ice age, but it's a long time off. The planet has been following a warming trend since the last glaciation, probably initiated by features of the Earth's orbit, then amplified by natural feedback processes. These still haven't played themselves out, and won't for a while.

You might take a look at this:

http://blog.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendID=9833309&blogID=364315275"> about the weather.

One year's data can't overturn a theory like climate change.

[PVnRT]

48. The ice age is coming...the sun's zooming in...

This article is from a satire site...right? Right?