ELECTORAL MAP FAVORS EITHER CLINTON OR OBAMA TO BEAT MCCAIN

[Bluebear]

WASHINGTON - The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall — either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton — and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift.

A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.

Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.

Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. In the battlegrounds, far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states — decided by 2 or fewer percentage points — voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080427/ap_on_el_pr/road_to270

[featherman]

1. This will be more true (poll-wise) once our nomination process is complete

The Dem team should come out of the convention with a lot of momentum. After that it will just have to withstand the usual 24/7 anti-Dem media coverage which will try to demean and diminish our team and benefit the GOP team. Same as 2000 and 2004 but this time the odds are with us. I see little chance that the voters will return the White House to a party as badly damaged as the GOP. It would be unprecedented historically.

[Scooter24]

2. I'm confident we could win with either Obama or Clinton...

but this process needs to end NOW! The longer we wait, the longer McCain has to make ground.

[Juche]

3. Dems generally have a decent advantage

Dems tend do decent on the west coast, new england and the northern midwest. Combined with attempts to increase turnout among blacks and hispanics in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado and other states and we may have a pretty good chance.

[aquart]

4. The Democrat will win.

If we count the votes. Electability has always been a phony issue in this campaign.

[betharina]

5. i think (okay, hope) there will be a lot more blue states!

i found this link interesting:
http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/primaries2008/

[sutz12]

6. McCain is the Bob Dole of 2008

I don't really believe the real Repubs in power think he has a chance. Johnny's a sacrificial lamb. They are just hoping he can do well enough to leave a base for 2012.

Frankly, I don't think the length of the Dem campaign really matters. When the spot light finally does shine on McSame, I have a feeling most people will think, "Him? He's still around?"

:shrug:

[nolabels]

7. A little editorial note.

Wouldn't it be better if the title of the thread had "WIN HANDILY OVER MCCAIN" instead of the "BEAT"?


It's just one subtle little things where the idea beating an older person is kind bad from a P.R. point of things :shrug:

[Bluebear]

8. Point taken but WIN HANDILY wouldn't fit in the subject line

:)

[Norrin Radd]

9. McCain "sees potential opportunities in" Washington State?

:rofl:

Admittedly, there are lots of yuppies flooding into the state, but I seriously doubt Washington would go red this soon.

[fujiyama]

10. Wow I realized what a pessimist I am

but I read it as "Neither".

I think McCain will win this and quite comfortably at that...

It sucks, but this campaign has destroyed both Obama and Clinton.

[Perry Logan]

11. Looks like the Republic has a fighting chance.