Peak OIL and some solutions

[nadinbrzezinski]

yes, we know we are at that point, just like global warming is here.

So we need to start talking solutions.

As I type this I can now speak from some personal experience. I got a bike and I have been riding to a coffee shop ten minutes from here Once I get the endurance, I will be able to ride to another coffee shop farther away... but here is the problem... if we are to deal with the need for people NOT to ride their cars everywhere, we will need food distribution businesses that are at walkable distance. Worst case, business that I can bike to in about ten minutes. Things like changing the rezoning laws allowing for businesses at the bottom of buildings in cities may be a way to go, while places like wally mart become your distribution center for these places, or with buss hubs, not parking lots, central markets for large areas.

No this is not an option, but a need. And this will become clear as time moves on.

We will also need mass transit that is efficient. and not only in cities or suburban areas. We used to have bus networks that went into the country side They need to come back... granted, worst case scenario you folks in the country side might be better off long term. You know (for the most part) how to handle horses and burros and worst case, we are going back to horses and an economy that is far less technological. In fact, a late 19th century tech level is not that far fetched.

We also must realize that the green revolution is fully dependent on oil... if oil is gone or that much more expensive, we are going to face starvation, and not just in the usual places ok... but here, in the US, and the rest of the first world. In fact, the rice troubles, are the tip of that spear. Starvation usually brings something we have not seen in this country... and that is popular unrest of the kind we have not seen in generations. And before any of you sing kumbaya and about bloody time... that kind of social unrest is hard to deal with since food is not on the shelves, no matter how hard people take to the streets. Pay attention to local restaurants, when they start failing en-masse assume things are getting really bad. And by the way, expect food inflation that will even be higher than what we have right now. And in the short term I don't expect our government to even acknowledge this. Worst case, this could lead to an economic collapse in the US, or worst world wide. Again, don't sing kumbaya, since the collapse will also lead to the end of supply lines and starvation in ways humanity has not seen since the black death. And if we are not willing to prepare for the end of oil, it will happen.

Water... yep, that is also coming to the fore as a crisis since clean sources of water are not really here, and here is even more. NO oil, some of those sources will not be reachable, since we need that kind of concentrated energy to reach it... for pumps to work. Yes, an Archimides screw will work in many cases, but not all... and you still need a way to turn that screw. So we need to set up our pumps and other mission critical devices to run on solar, wind et al Of course some areas of the world could use desalination plants, but for some reason our political will is not there. In some ways NIMBY needs to go away...

And on a very short term, as in a generation, perhaps two... we may even have to consider nuclear... you cannot get more bang for your energy buck... but it has problems of its own... and serious problems. But we may have to... and trust me, I don't like reactors, or chiefly what do you do with the waste?

In the end if we, as a species, continue going as if nothing is happening and are not willing to make the changes needed... we may be facing an extinction level event. Yes, things are that serious.

Oh and folks, don't expect our poltiicos to even speak of it. This end of the American Dream, as it stands right now, and quite possibly suburbia, is quite brutally honest the third rail. And I don't expect politicians to speak of it

You can prepare individually as best as you can... but that will not guarantee anything.

Oh and yes... do call me Mrs. Sunshine!

[greenman3610]

1. some of the top energy guys are predicting 12 to 15 dollar gasoline

very credible people.

the idea that higher prices will create a
glut is not credible, according to these folk,
because the remaining reserves are in such
difficult places to drill.
There is oil, but not at the price that we have
been used to, so change is upon us. I welcome it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I predict people will finally wake up

when it hits six to worst case seven bucks

Anecdotally I was talking with a cop I know from the years I worked the streets.... the department is seeing more bikes in the streets

And we are at four fifty.

Hell, we may have to get hubby a bike once almost nobody is driving

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. kick

[NYC_SKP]

4. Obama seems more environmentally friendly than others: "Story of Stuff"

Great post, thank you!

Every time we buy something new it takes energy, usually oil or coal, and screws the environment and other countries in more ways than we know.
I highly recommend watching "The Story of Stuff", www.storyofstuff.com

PS, my Prius turn two yesterday...some of us saw this coming.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Our honda civic Hybrid turned I think three

and yes some of us saw this coming

I saw the first hybrid back in 2000 in a car show, and we knew that was our next car, a hybrid

And now my bike seats in the living room

[glitch]

13. My 40mpg toyota corolla turned 20 years old last year.

Yep, some of us saw it coming :hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. I raise you with my dad's 42 mpg 22 year old BMW 325I

which is about four MPG lower than the Honda...

Yes, there is a problem with that

:-)

[glitch]

18. Your dad wins!

My toyota hasn't gotten 44mpg for a couple years now, he's getting a little tired but I still love him.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. I do see a problem with the fact that your Toyota and my dad's spoiled

Beemer (yes I love that car too, even if it is extremely extensive to maintain)... have about the same MPG as the hybrid.

WE HAD the tech back then, so when the car executives say no... I call BS

Then there are the European Cars that have 60 and above because again, it is mandated by law

There are days I wonder how long until Muricans wake up as to how much they have been managed into blind consumerism and love for corporations

[glitch]

20. Waiting for them to wake up for very long 30 years has been a surreal experience.

A lot of Americans are very childish but I think there are enough of them almost at the tipping point now.
And once the tipping starts progress will happen very fast, I am still hopeful.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. Just posted an OP regarding that

give me a sec

Here you go

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3378172&mesg_id=3378172

Yes I could type the damn thing all over

:-)

[glitch]

24. A link is as good as a nod, thanks for it! :) nt

[Jack_DeLeon]

6. IMO the end of oil would not be an extinction level event, but its pretty bad...

The phrase "the meek shall inherit the earth" comes to mind. The people without technology living day to day in 3rd world countries today would likely continue to go about their lives after a fashion.

However it could definetly the end or near total collapse of our modern society, something akin to a new dark age.

We should all however do our own part to make reasonable preparations for ourselves and those we care about.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. It can be, depending on how we handle it, when combined

with global warming.

We really do not know how bad global warming will be and every prediction so far has been surpassed by facts on the ground

Alone... no, you are right... and going back to a 19th century tech base, before lights, and trains... is not that unlikely either.

And yes, there will be a great die out.

And I am doing the best I can for myself and my hubby... for starters, getting in shape

Look, on the bright side, our obesity crisis may come to an end...

:-)

[NNN0LHI]

8. We are going to have to do something and I am not going to criticize your ideas

Because I can't think of anything better. And I have been trying.

Don

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. I've been doing the mental exercise since I started writing a short

story in the years AFTER the great die out

And I assumed, for the story, that we mostly did nothing... but then I went... humans are not that stupid...

Then there is Diamond's book on the collapse of civilizations.

We might be there.

But I can tell you... doing something will be fought tooth and nail by the usual suspects. I was listening to the mayoral debate this morning, and was going.... WTF? You folks are really not doing a damn thing really, to prepare my region for the coming catastrophe! And sadly the two viable candidates are republics. One is slightly better since he actually seems to understand we need to ahem, raise taxes, to deal with some of this... but I was going... what will it take?

And sadly the kid, and yes he is a kid, with the good ideas is all but viable.... in this city.

[IDemo]

10. A DU'er handed Obama a Peak Oil book ("The Party's Over"?) a few weeks ago.

It would be interesting to know if he has had the time or the inclination to read it, and if he understands that the problem extends beyond the usual popular sound bite answers like biofuels and wind.

The politically unpopular steps that need to be taken mainly involve conservation, decreases in consumption, and localization. Unpopular, because nobody wants to be told to drive or do less.

There are a few things that could and should be done soon:

• Provide tax breaks and incentives for community farming and gardening, along with the necessary education. Existing CSA's provide an excellent model for this.
  
  
• Ban covenants and municipal codes that outlaw energy saving things such as clothes lines, front yard vegetable gardens, or windmills.
  
  
• Electrify as much of our transportation fleet as possible. Along with plug in hybrids and "pure" battery electric automobiles, electric scooters, motorcycles and electrically-assisted bicycles can provide relatively cheap clean transportation. A large amount of our nation's fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas output could be decreased with just this step. Around 84% of the existing light vehicle fleet could be powered by our present power grid using excess power at nighttime, according to a Pacific Northwest Lab report ("mileage from megawatts").
  
  
• Improve public transportation, including buses, trolleys and light rail.
  
  
• And certainly, encourage bicycling and walking whenever and wherever possible. Bike sharing programs are one good area to begin.
  

There's more, much more.

No one is going to prevent the coming decades from being a bad disaster flick. But hopefully, with enough recognition of the problem and motivation to act, at least some things can be done to make it less painful an unwinding of the Industrial Age, and less of a topple off the cliff.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. My neighbors finally agreed to recycle

after much prodding and pushing. We have land that could be used for community gardens and hells, bells quite a bit of surface area for sun light cells...

At times I feel it is like pushing idiots

But part of it is, people really don't want to wake up that this is here and we need to something

I do sincerely hope he reads it... and gets it, but this should be required readying at local governments as well, where the change has to start

[Terry in Austin]

12. K & R

[crispini]

14. K &R

:kick:

[Selatius]

15. We need extensive, sophisticated mass transit systems the kind France and Germany possess.

Our response is interstates and a starving Amtrak passenger rail system. Our passenger rail system is probably worse than what a Soviet-era interior ministry would've provided in Russia or Eastern Europe. Poland likely has better mass transit than the US.

My best guess is we could build such a network with yearly outlays of roughly 20 billion. Amtrak currently receives somewhere around 1 billion in gov't assistance each year, give or take a couple hundred million.

If we're in a panic, we could talk about punching it up to 50 billion a year. In terms of costs, it's nothing compared to the Iraq War or the Pentagon budget, whose budget for the last fiscal year was over 620 billion dollars.

With the money, we could build up bus fleets, bullet train networks, and programs to help towns and cities do better urban planning that builds cities around people, not cars. Nobody wants this in their city:

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Exactly!

and that is amongst many other changes. This is a change in the culture and how we do things.

[galledgoblin]

21. I want to see a reinvestment in rail here in NY

the way (Dewitt) Clinton invested in the Erie Canal!

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. Rail actually is coming back but in the end, when all is said and done

things like rail will have to be placed in the hands of tight regulation or government

[SergeyDovlatov]

25. People are using busses more in my area

Now with the gas hitting $4.50. Busses are running in my area full of people, as opposed to ferrying 1-2.

I would not worry about peak oil. When the oil start running low, gas prices will rise sufficiently high and the projects that are currently are not economical will become viable and investemnt will follow.

Currently, oil is still the cheapest way to get energy. When it becomes more expensive better alternative will become available.

I will even claim that we will NEVER ever run out of oil. In the same way we never ran out of wood, coal, etc. They become less important when better alternative appeared.