Battlefield America - The Electoral Map, this year the map could be purple

[EV_Ares]

Under George Bush, red states were red and blue states were blue. This year the map could be drenched in purple

BARACK OBAMA hopes to wrap up the Democratic nomination next week, as the three last primaries, combined with an expected slew of superdelegate announcements, carry him over the threshold of victory. Already, his team is focusing on winning the White House. With an electorate sick of war, costly petrol and George Bush, the odds favour him. Intrade, a betting site, puts his chances at 58%.

If he (or, should a miracle occur, Mrs Clinton) stumbles, however, it may be because the electoral college has worked against the Democrats. With five months of campaigning still ahead, all predictions should be taken with a fistful of salt. Nonetheless, it is at least plausible that he (or she) might rack up pointlessly large majorities in liberal states while narrowly failing to carry enough swing states to win.

Geography, as so often in history, is key. The electoral map did not change much between the last two presidential elections. Only three states, all small, switched sides between 2000 and 2004: Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico. But this year could be very different. John McCain is an unusual Republican, distrusted by the party's evangelical base but popular with independents. Mr Obama's prospects are even harder to discern, since no black American has ever come this close to the presidency and people may lie to pollsters about his candidacy.

Link to map & article: http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=11455836