Will SOMEBODY please explain how Obama is even with McCain in the polls, not winning?

[CTyankee]

This, after thousands and thousands of people registering and voting Democratic in the primaries and the huge crowds of cheering supporters that Obama gets everywhere he goes? And in a year where the Republican "brand" is toxic?!

I don't understand it. I'm beginning to think that poll methodology might be the cause, primarily because pollsters call land lines and may not reach the vast number of cell phone only users.

Help me out here, I'm not getting it...

:shrug:

[aquart]

1. Not everyone wants a messiah.

Those "huge crowds of cheering supporters" scare the shit out of rational human beings.

[Webster Green]

7. Enough with the messiah and cult bullshit already..

WTF?!

Can you really be as dense as you seem to be? :eyes:

[Kittycat]

9. Get over it.

Our next president actually has supporters that give a shit vs. the past 8 years of bullshit. For once in a long time, the spotlight is shining bright on politics, and the Dem party is finally getting it's message broadcast over a loud speaker through every network, and media outlet out there.

Then again, if you're happy with the * years - vote for McCain, or sit at home. Either way, you fail.

[Indenturedebtor]

12. Yes because supporters who don't know when their candidate lost are much more sane

:eyes:

Who's drinking the Kool-aid here?

[rurallib]

23. repeat after me "McCain is the enemy, McCain is the enemy"

[slinkerwink]

38. are you a Clinton supporter?

[Cheap_Trick]

39. you must like pizza

aqufart...what do you want on your tombstone?

[otohara]

43. Oh It's So Scary to See Admiration

and excitement.

You're saying they'd rather watch the kids in suits & ties sitting behind John McCain looking unenthusiastically and bored to tears.

[EOTE]

46. This from someone who said a rubber duckie could win against McCain this year?

Rational human beings are frightened or war mongers, not someone who's capable of inspiring.

[Mountainman]

54. Bye you are on my ignore list

I suggest that if someone repeatedly offends you with their posts, ignore them. I'm sure I'm ignored by some.

[tom_paine]

67. You're loopy.

I'm sorry, I don't know what else to say. You have lost perspective.

I mean, what are you trying to say here, that Obama is some Idi Amin, some General Pinochet or other Bush-Type?

He's no messiah. He's an inspirational speaker coming out at a time when our nation is the "wrongest" it's been since the Depression ended, maybe longer depending how you look at it.

Get a grip. Come on board, the water's fine. You don't have to love Obama supporters (Obama wasn't my first choice, either), and I suspect your feelings are badly hurt because of all the flamefest bullshit that GD: P must have been. I don't, I only went there a few times before I knew I never wanted to go again.

But GET...A...FUCKING...GRIP.

Unless you want to kneel to Emperor McBush. That's the cold, hard reality; I'm not being cruel here.

[Hydra]

2. I suspect blatent manipulation

As I posited during the runup to the war in Iraq- no way was 75% of the country behind Bush on that with Millions of people protesting all over the country.

Similarly, I've mentioned that a Turtle in a Suit with a D at the end of his name could beat McCain.

I suspect they are manipulating the polls because otherwise, election fraud is not possible in a stealthy fashion- like the exit polls in 2004.

[bean fidhleir]

17. Good call. Manipulation through disinformation. Tried and true method

People like to get on bandwagons, and even if they refuse they can always be counted anyway.

[Hydra]

21. It's sick how many people want to support the "winner"

Shows how lacking in values they are.

[coalition_unwilling]

42. Media has a strong self-interest in portraying the race as a very

close "horse race." Stimulates viewing and readership, which helps them sell ads.

Personally, I think we're looking at a November landslide of 1932 or 1964 dimensions. Enjoy it - we get to live through our very own 'Hoover moment' :)

[bean fidhleir]

51. Everyone thought "landslide" in '04, too. (nt)

[Hydra]

58. What Bean Fidhleir said

Landslide is SUPPOSED to be what happens...but the GOP flipped 5 MILLION votes in 2004 to achieve victory. Do you think they'll care if they have to flip 10 million more?

[tom_paine]

68. Sadly, you are correct. And on just how correct that is rest the chance for Obama to win.

We cannot underestimate the importance of STOPPING OR CATCHING the Bushies in their voter suppression schemes.

Every election they have a few new methods and because the Democrats simply refuse to investigate the ample evidence, we have no real defenses against the old ones still, let alone the new ones.

Death by a thousand cuts. Think of a Civil War battalion charging across a field. They start out with 1000, but after crossing the first half of the field, they are down to 900, as they go over the fence, their numbers are slaugtered to 800, then 700. By the time the unit fires it's volley and fixes it's bayonets and charges the enemy, only 600 have gotten through. to the "voting booth".

THAT is the Bushie strategy of "death by 1000 cuts". It also gives them Plausibly Deniability because no single method (at least those non-electronic methods) is so awful or obvious that it crosses the threshold of outrage, which is pretty damned high among our fellow Americans...considering.

It's brilliant, really. A true work of evil genius applied by many people with much funding, time to think about and many years with a lack of aware opposition thus an wide open playing field.

My God, if the Bushies could fight Terrorist Organizations HALF as well as they crush the American People, American Freedom and the American Dream, while stealing trillion$, then there would be a major organization left on this Earth that hadn't been shattered to bits.

[otohara]

3. You're Kidding Right?

It's been all of 2 days since becoming the nominee, the anger factor on the Hillary side has yet to subside - you expect miracles. Can we just have one debate before jumping to conclusions.

[CTyankee]

26. No, I've been watching the polls for months and it never seems to change.

It was not that much better between Clinton and McCain polls match ups, and people knew both of them equally.

I still think something is wrong with the polls...

[otohara]

40. The Kids

carry cell phones - there will be an army of kids.

[CTyankee]

59. I'm hoping! Of course, that's what I hoped in 04 about the cell phone thing.

Maybe it's more pronounced now, of course. Also, as someone pointed out, the more recently registered Dems may not have shown up on the phone records yet. So I am hopeful...

[Richardo]

4. They've been going head-to-head for only 2 days.

Plus nobody's been focused on McGaffe for 4 months. Relax.

[yourout]

5. Closet racists.

They talk the talk but won't walk the walk.

[bowens43]

6. It's going to be a tough fight.

all these folks who think it's going to be an easy win are delusional. McCain is well liked and respected.

[rox63]

8. Most people don't pay much attention to politics like we do

Obama is still an unknown quantity to some people. His campaign has a lot of work to do with these folks. But I think they are up to the job.

[Spike89]

19. You nailed it

At best, most people give the election a few minutes thought during their state's primary and won't come back to it until the conventions. Sad, but voting for some crappy singer on TV gets more deep thought than the election does this far out. Actually, maybe it's those of us that obsess in early June that are sad?

[AndyA]

10. Do you really expect the media to be fair and balanced?

They haven't been up to this point, so why should they start reporting accurate and complete news now? The M$M ownership has not changed, and they prefer to have Republicans in charge for obvious reasons.

Once Obama is the Dem nominee, look for the M$M to take him down in short order. It's already been planned, and Americans sheeple have been cooperating beautifully so far.

[arcadian]

11. Simple, the Republicans are going to steal this election too

Get your favorite bastardization of "McCain" ready you may need it for the next 8 years.

[Johnyawl]

13. We're a nation of racists.

For every crowd of 100,000 cheering supporters there's 100,000 people sitting alone at home thinking to themselves "I'll vote for the old crazy guy before I'll vote for the n*****"

It's a sad commentary on our nation, but there it is. Obama's gonna have to be spectacular, and we're gonna have to work our butts off, and dig out every vote possible to win this thing. And all McCain has to do is have that poster of his smiling white face with the tagline "Change you can trust" (why? cause he's white!)

The republican brand is toxic, as you mentioned, and that's the one thing I'm optimistic about. Even if Obama loses, there's a very good chance that we'll still end up with a 60+ seat majority in the Senate, and another 20 seats in the House.

[Mike Daniels]

25. If we were overall a nation of racists, Obama would be shining shoes

He sure as hell wouldn't have made it to the US Senate much less even been more than a "*" in the primaries.

[LibDemAlways]

32. Those people you mentioned, the ones who will vote for

the "crazy old guy"...They exist. I know a couple of seniors, lifelong Dems, who can't imagine a black guy in the WH. It's unfathonable to them, and there's nothing anyone could do or say to make them change their minds.

[coalition_unwilling]

44. They probably had a problem with MLK being too "uppity" and think

the Democratic Party was best when it had the likes of Strom Thurmond in it.

[LibDemAlways]

48. They just grew up in a different time. It's not just

racism against black people, either. When they look at someone they don't see a person, they see a specific ethnicity or religion. If it isn't theirs, it's suspect.

[librechik]

14. Across the country (with exceptions) the US has a slight racism problem

a small percentage of Americans just won't vote for O and they will always be there to throw off polls. It is our job as progressives to come out in great numbers and overwhelm that small minority, eventually defeating it. In about a century. (my guess)

[KSCFAN]

15. My opinion.

I know there are lots of progressives around here so I'll try to be nice. Many americans just don't trust government and want to be left alone. Those people have a difficult choice this election.

On one hand you have Obama who is great on foreign policy and civil liberties.

On the other hand you have McCain that is supposedly better on the economy liberties.

The economic progressive message doesn't go over too well with many people in my neck of the woods. Telling people that the government should provide for every need is a bit scary for some espeically when you see how lousy it handles what is already does.

If Obama focused on ending the Wars and restoring civil liberties it would be a landslide.

[treestar]

35. When they get to a point where they are in need of anything

They will change that tune.

[JANdad]

62. Please tell me what exactly the Govt

Does Poorly?

"when you see how lousy it handles what is already does."

[2008]

16. Allow me to submit two other election years that should have been outright landslides for us

2000 and 2004

Remember that our adversaries are not the Republican politicians with terrible ideas.

Our adversaries are millions of mentally and emotionally defective voters who will support these Republicans no matter how terrible the ideas.

[bean fidhleir]

20. Right on the years, wrong on the cause

There are no ideas at issue. Both parties see to it that elections are always trivia contests, with substance kept carefully away from the ballot box.

[2008]

22. If that was true, and there was so little difference...

...it would seem unethical to support either party, and being a DUer would be virtually the same as being a freeper.

[bean fidhleir]

24. So what do you think the issues are? And why do you think so?

I'm talking about substantive changes, not those of gloss, emphasis, and lip-service.

[2008]

30. I'm not going to list everything GWB did in the last 8 years that Al Gore would not have done

The country would have been better off with Gore or Kerry in the White House, and I sure as hell am not going to waste another minute arguing that point.

[bean fidhleir]

33. I'm talking about the future, not the past.

What substantive improvements can we expect from the Dems if they have control of Congress and the presidency?

[2008]

34. You mean, as opposed to John McCain and the Republicans?

You don't seem to understand: I won't waste time at Democratic Underground arguing why Democrats are a better choice than Republicans. It's not what I choose to spend my time doing here. It's not a board that's devoted to trying to figure out if there's a difference between the two parties.

Why are you here? Is it because DU has a better layout and easier functionality than other political message boards? Is it to convert Dems to your view that there's no substantive difference between the parties?

[bean fidhleir]

37. You know, when you talk about "millions of mentally and emotionally defective voters"

you're implying that it's totally obvious that the Dems are a better choice and that you, who see this, are far superior to those "defective" people who don't vote as you do. So superior, in fact, that you need not even explain yourself.

Imagine, if you can, how that looks from the outside of your head.

[2008]

56. "How it looks" to Republicans, conservatives, freepers?

I would have to come up with a much better argument, when talking to a conservative, than I have so far with you.

My arguments in this thread would be woefully inadequate, if the argument were between myself and a conservative.

A conservative would demand a much better argument from me than I have afforded you.

It's for this reason that I don't go to conservative message boards and try to change their minds.

Instead I read and post at Democratic Underground, where I share common ground with the other members, and who don't need me to explain why I am committed to voting for Democrats.

The typical conservative would have a hard time engaging me in a partisan argument, if he or she were to troll at DU.

[2008]

60. And I certainly didn't mean to offend mental and emotional defectives...

...mainly because I hadn't previously imagined it was possible to do so.

[LibDemAlways]

31. Mentally and emotionally defective, true, but I think

ignorant and uninformed ought to be in there, too. I don't think most people have a clue they're routinely voting against their own self-interest because they aren't motivated enough to do the research to find out what the candidates stand for. They just vote for the guy they'd like to have a beer with.

[bean fidhleir]

45. Imagine how elitist that sounds, that people can't simply be wrong because they've been

systematically lied to, they have to be Mentally And Emotionally Defective. Wooosh, what a head trip.

[LibDemAlways]

49. We've all been systematically lied to, but the difference between

those who've bought into the bullshit and those who haven't is the willingness of the individual to ask questions and not blindly accept everything he's told. That, I think, is a general character flaw of too many Americans. They just accept everything at face value because it's too damn hard to think. That's why I agree to some extent with the OP, though I do think the term "defective" is a bit harsh. I'd leave it at mentally lazy.

[AndyTiedye]

18. The Repiglickin' Media Has Been Cultivating the "Moderate Maverick" Myth For Years

Even though he is no moderate

and no maverick either

[book_worm]

27. We have been having a combative nominating process and half of Hill's supporters are pissed off

give it time they will come.

[sybylla]

28. Because corporations like pukes

and corporations that do polling, like to favor pukes. Plus, it gets pushed in the media and suddenly independents who support Obama think, hey, maybe I'm on the losing side. Duh, I should switch to the winner.

I know, there are decent polls out there. But this time around many of the polls are going to be off if they are only calling registered voters when new primary voters probably wouldn't yet make an appearance on the lists. And, as you mentioned, young voters are likely to have only cell phones and internet - no land lines - so they are not included even though they are a huge part of Obama's support.

[4_Legs_Good]

29. The polls still reflect a 3 person race

And will for a few more weeks. Don't give them any creedence until Independence Day at least. Once it is now clear that there is ONE Democratic nominee and ONE Replublican nominee, things will start to shift.

David

[Timmy5835]

36. THE Reason

The campaign hasn't started yet. Once it does and McCain's policies are brought to light, he really is a dead man. Also at this point Obama has 4 times the money as McCain. Gramps can't seem to get a fundraiser started. You will recall the Phoenix fundraiser that had to be canceled because of lack of ticket sales. Once you see the campaign in full swing with Grampa vs. RFK II, McCain is toast.

[maui9002]

55. It's not about which candidate is better

It should be; but it's not. I believe most voters choose to support a President whom they "like" and who is a member of their "team" rather which candidate is best suited for the job. In other words, if the reincarnation of Ronald f*ing Reagan were to become the Democratic nominee, Fox News would label him as a liberal who wants to raise your taxes and who is soft on terrorism. Given that essentially half the country identifies themselves as conservatives, the election will no doubt come down to which candidate can attract the relatively small number of independents and crossovers and who can generate turnout from his party faithful, which is why I think, despite today's poll numbers, Barack Obama will be our next President.

[coalition_unwilling]

41. Gallup (which tends to lean Repuke in recent years) has Obama

ahead of McInsane. So I'm not sure which polls you are referencing.

[FloridaJudy]

50. Yup, Every poll I've seen

Gives a slight edge to Obama. And remember, not everyone in the US is as passionate about politics as we are: it's sadly true, as one previous poster put it, that more people watch American Idol than the Democratic returns. Anyone who watched both McCain's and Obama's speeches on Tuesday night could see that Our Guy's got the moxie and the gravitas to be a winner, but how many people did? I'm really looking forward to the debates. Obama's a charismatic speaker: he'll blow them away, unlike Al Gore, who - much as I admire the man - wasn't particularly inspiring in the debates.

It's also true that during these last few weeks we Dems have been particularly busy pointing out each candidate's flaws. If we can unite and turn that rancor on McCain, I believe we could make that slight edge a lot bigger.

I'm cautiously optimistic. Given a level playing field (and knowing the Repubs, that's not a given), I think we can do it.

[Maureen1322]

47. I saw a poll today and Barack was ahead 6 points (+ or - 4 pts.).

[Bleacher Creature]

52. Obama's been getting tagged teamed for months now.

Once he consolidates the base, his numbers will improve.

[cynatnite]

53. It really depends on their internals...

If they sampled more repubs than dems it does explain why it's close. Since more people are calling themselves Democrats than repubs these days they should compensate for that.

If they don't make changes that reflect the population then the poll is bogus and should be ignored.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

57. All sorts of factors, but primarily that America is a very right-wing nation.

There are all sorts of other contributing factors:-

:-McCain's head start in campaigning while Obama was concentrating on the primary
:-Obama's race
:-McCain's war record
:-Obama's reputed inexperience (whether or not he is, people think he is).
:-The larger Republican war chest
:-Jeremiah Wright

(N.B. the effect of some of these may be negligable, I'm just listing all the possibilities I can think of).

But the single most important factor is that America is an extremely right-wing nation, and the more right-wing of the two candidates will therefor be at an advantage. The sad truth is that an awful lot of Americans care a lot about banning abortion, overturning the separation of Church and State, opposing gay marriage and the like.

[SergeyDovlatov]

61. people are not paying attention?

or people being cynical and not willing to get overly excited about a politician even the one with really good rhetorical skills.

Most likely, not paying attention.
Probably a lot of them still think tha Obama is a muslim and McCain is a bold maverick who took on Bush in 2000.

[JI7]

63. maybe we should send out the McCain speech on Tuesday to every home

[snowbear]

64. MSNBC & CNN showed a poll all day today w.Obama IN THE LEAD

Not sure what you were watching, but only a day after he gets the nomination, he's already beating McSAME in Gallup by 7 points.

It will only get better ~ have the faith!

But no. The old man is not in lead!

[Mr. Blonde]

65. To most people McCain doesn't have the Republican brand

he is a "maverick". People interpret that as not toeing the Repbulican line on the issues they also don't toe the Republican line on as well. Doesn't matter if that is true, it is how they interpret him being a maverick. Plus he is viewed as the safer choice. Certainly a lot of people are going to view McCain as "one of us" as opposed to a black guy with a weird name.

[Clout]

66. Ignorance?

Ignorance?