OH-07: Neuhardt (D) Internal Polling Shows Close Race

[muryan]

Confounding the conventional wisdom that OH-07 is a "safe" Republican seat, the campaign of business attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) has released internal polling showing that her open seat race against State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Austria) is within 6 points, indicating a winnable contest:

41% Austria (R)
35% Neuhardt (D)
24% Undecided

Neuhardt's pollster, Cooper & Secrest Associates, Inc., notes these additional positive numbers from the poll, which has a margin of error of 4.4 points:

* A generic Democrat defeats a generic Republican by 13 points, 46% to 33%.

* Neuhardt is at a mere 6% deficit with only 33% name recognition, and after presentation of a full and balanced paragraph of information about each candidate it becomes a statistical tie -- Neuhardt 46%, Austria 45%.

* George Bush's personal appeal is rated negatively by 64% of respondents ("very negatively" by 53%) and his job performance rating is 76% negative (54% "poor").

* McCain and Obama are in a statistical tie at 43% to 40%.


http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/content/oh-07-neuhardt-d-internal-polling-shows-close-race


Two things make this important, the first being that there hasnt been a democrat elected from this district (my district) to congress since 1936.

The second being that they ran a poll of Obama/McCain, and if the numbers now are that close, then Obama might not have to spend as much money in Ohio as I previously thought. This is a republican stronghold that was largely unaffected during the 2006 election, but if the blue wave has reached this district then we are looking at a great fall for the democratic party

[Tatiana]

1. Great post. Ohio looks like it will turn blue this fall.

I can't believe Ohioans will look at McSame and Obama side-by-side and NOT pick Obama.

[MasonJar]

2. Ohio was blue in 2004; Kerry/Edwards were cheated out of victory,

just like Gore in Florida in 2000.