My early list for possible Dem senate pick-ups

[KelleyKramer]

This is the earliest I have ever tried to handicap the races, but we are looking so good.... its just fun!!

Seems like I'm missing one or two, but here are my top picks for Dem pick-ups divided into 3 tiers ....

Top Tier

New Mexico
Alaska
New Hampshire
Colorado
Oregon
Virginia

2nd Tier

North Carolina
Maine
Mississippi
Texas (yes, Texas)
Minnesota
Idaho

3rd Tier

Kentucky

If anyone can give local insight on your states race, please pipe up!

[opihimoimoi]

1. Hawaii will remain BLUE

[Art_from_Ark]

2. Bartender,

Give me a Blue Hawaiian!

:toast:

[opihimoimoi]

11. konichi wa tomodachi....sending sake and sashimi with some uni

[Art_from_Ark]

17. Ahhhh, sashimi

And uni paste on rice-- ummmmm :bounce:

[Jackpine Radical]

3. I guarantee Wisconsin will stay blue.

(Neither Feingold nor Kohl is up for re-election this year)

[opihimoimoi]

12. Them Pubs are shitting in their Depends as we type...LOL

[Zynx]

4. Kentucky is more likely than Idaho, Texas, or Maine.

[dsc]

5. Dole is in some substantial trouble

We had an openly gay man running in our sides' primary (he lost) but in head to head polls with her she never cracked 50% nor did she have more than about 10% lead. This against a man who to the extent he was known, was known as a gay man in NC. Currently she is statistically tied, under 50% with her challenger Kay Hagan, who is also unknown in both the eastern and western parts of our state.

[KelleyKramer]

7. She is under 50%

Always a really BAD sign for an incumbent. The last poll I saw had her at 48% - 44%

Just keep it close and Obama bringing out massive black turn-out could easily swing that race

Jesse Helms is rolling in his grave!

[dsc]

8. Jesse is alive

and apparently in Raleigh. I am trying to find where his nursing home is so our GSA can adopt the road. LOL his road cleaned up by a gay straight alliance.

[27inCali]

6. Don't forget House Seats

like my district, the 11th in California.

lots of farm land in this district East of San Francisco, went Republican for something like 20 years till last cycle.
Congressman McNerny won by 4% mostly because his opponent had some serious corruption issues that dovetailed nicely with the national corruption theme.
Good news is there is a steady influx of more liberal minded bay area people coming into the district for cheaper cost of living -and a lot of these people commute and hr and 1/2 to the bay for their job.
This might be an excellent opportunity to make this district a little more solidly blue since McNerny's done a great job and the concentration of commuters means people will be PISSED about gas prices.
Still we are going to need a lot of volunteers and money out here like we did last time to make it happen. It's probably one of the few districts in the country were the Rs have a chance for a pickup and they know it and will probably poor a LOT of money into this race.

VERY IMPORTANT:
a big part of building solid majorities will be holding on to the slim victories we had last cycle and not taking them for granted.

[Hippo_Tron]

9. Idaho and Texas are 3rd tier at best

Noriega would be able to give Senator Box-Turtle a run for his money if Texas wasn't so damn big and expensive. Larry LaRocco has a very very outside chance but Idaho is still very very red.

Current polling indicates that Virginia and New Mexico will almost definitely go our way. The next most likely are Colorado and New Hampshire. Then Mississippi, Minnesota, Alaska, and Oregon. Then there's Maine and North Carolina. IMO Allen isn't going to ride Obama's coattails to victory against Susan Collins. She's simply too popular and Maine is a 10 point blue state not a 20 point blue state. Collins will have to have a gaffe or scandal for Allen to win. North Carolina is the one that will probably put the Democrats at 60 and Hagan might be able to ride Obama's coattials to victory.

[KelleyKramer]

13. Hmmm, interesting

Good point about the money for a TX run, you could be right there.

Agree with your top 4, on your 2nd four I think AK is looking like best bet for a win.. and even though I like Franken, I'm pessimistic on MN

My big dark horse picks are MS and NC.. I think those races are going to really surprise anyone not paying close attention.

[Hippo_Tron]

14. Mississippi isn't a dark horse it's going to be a very close race

Travis Childers' victory in the 1st district is scaring the living shit out of the Republicans and bodes well for Musgrove's chances in November. Musgrove has also been elected statewide and Roger Wicker has not. There are some polls that even have Musgrove currently ahead by 10 points. IMO it will get very close but heavy African American turnout for Obama can put Musgrove over the top.

[KelleyKramer]

16. Didnt say it wouldnt be close

Sure it will be close. And they'll have to spend more money and use every method of voter suppression they know, especially against blacks.

The other things you list are the exact reason thats one of my top dark horse victory picks.

[Blue Belle]

10. Oregon will get bluer...

Jeff Merkley will take Gordon Smith's seat.

[HughMoran]

15. I hope we pick the one up in NH

We have a good chance IMO as Jeanne Shaheen is a good candidate and this state has had it with Republicans.

[cloudythescribbler]

18. If the Democrats gain SIX seats in the Senate this election cycle -- that would be STUPENDOUS!

[Jackpine Radical]

19. They really need about 10

to overcome Republican roadblocks & break through filibuster threats. (I say "about" 10 'cause God knows where Lieberman will be standing by January. He might be, to use LBJ's colorful phrase, outside the tent pissing in.)

[underpants]

20. Va. is a freakin' LOCK

Mark Warner

OVER!!

Oh and not this time but John Warner is stepping down too....look for Gov. Kaine to push hard for that possibly against George Allen or they could run Gilmore out again :rofl:

[KelleyKramer]

21. Thats good to hear

Sounds like the Dems are looking better and better in VA