The Democratic Party's Huge Advantage for November

[MadBadger]

So I was crunching the numbers from the most recent CBS News/NY Times poll that was taken immediately before Obama wrapped up the nomination, meaning they dont show a bump yet. In that poll, Obama lead McCain 48-42.

The huge advantage that we will see doesnt have to do with Independents or with cross over Republicans. It has to do with Democrats. According to the sample: There are 27% Republicans, 33% Independents. The big Number is that there are 40% Democrats. That is a huge advantage for any Democrat to have. If Obama can get as many or close to the percent of Democrats that McCain gets of Republicans, and remains competitive among Independents, Obama should will win this election.

[AndyTiedye]

1. If We Have a 13% Edge in Party Registration, But Obama Only Leads by 6%

That means a lot of Democrats are planning to vote for McInsane,
or else he is winning the vast majority of the independents,
or both.

We have a lot of work ahead of us. We KNOW 6% is close enough to steal.

[MadBadger]

2. Remember, this was before the party has begun to consolidate around him

If that poll was done today, Obama would be up double digits.

[ccharles000]

3. We rule.

[DailyGrind51]

4. The Democratic turnout in November

will overwhelm Republicans, as it did in the primaries. It is not the number responding to polls, but the number who actually show up to vote that count.