Withdrawal from Iraq will be center stage in the GE. “Iraq War advocates overstate the

[jody]

difficulties of withdrawal” by Lawrence Korb is worth reading. The Road to Kuwait in The American Conservative.

Yet when people argue that the U.S. should withdraw expeditiously, those like President Bush and Senator McCain who support an endless military commitment raise three objections: it cannot be done quickly; the situation will go to hell in a hand-basket when we leave; and our military commanders will oppose it. Each of these points is without merit.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Close examination reveals that these claims, like those that got us into the war, are highly exaggerated. A U.S. departure will not necessarily lead to genocide and mayhem. Iraq today belongs to Iraqis, a people with their own norms and tendencies. It is quite likely that in the absence of the cumbersome and clumsy American occupation, Iraqis will make their own bargains and compacts, thereby fending off the projected genocide and evicting outside groups like al-Qaeda.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Similarly, the claim that an American withdrawal from Iraq will undermine our credibility and moral standing has the reality exactly backward. A well-managed withdrawal, as opposed to remaining indefinitely, will enhance our credibility, especially if coupled with a renewed diplomatic effort. It will restore our global reputation and allow us to focus on real threats to our national interests.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Finally, setting a date for a U.S. withdrawal will give Iraq’s political leaders the best incentive to undertake meaningful political reconciliation. The U.S. military presence allows the current dysfunctional central government to avoid making difficult decisions.

[jmowreader]

1. We're looking at an Ethnic Cleansing operation

By now, the different factions in Iraq should be separated out fairly well. Once it's done, the only real violence in the area is going to be against the occupation forces. If we were to pull out...oh, say in 2010...this is what we'd be left with:

The Shia region would become very rich, because that's where a great deal of the oil in Iraq is.

The Kurdish region would be doing okay financially--there's oil there--but border strife with Turkey would result in a small but significant number of casualties from frequent small border skirmishes.

The Sunni region? It will be the richest of all. It will be the Last Frontier: after Chinese, Vietnamese and Cambodian labor gets too expensive to make Wal-Mart goods, the world will look to Sunni Iraq.

[jody]

2. That's an optimistic scenario and the Shia-Kurdish part seems possible. Kurdish oil would go

by pipeline to some Israeli port, probably Haifa.

As we all know, the Shiites are not going to give up their control of the Iraqi government.

[jmowreader]

3. Then there's the ALTERNATE scenario...

which is that we stay in Iraq until 2015-2020. Eventually the fighting WILL stop, if only because the Iraqis have all blown themselves up.

The problem with that one is that it will kill 35,000 American soldiers.

[jody]

4. I don't like the alternative. IMO the Iraqis can govern themselves having done so for millenniums. n