New Jersey Firming up for O

[Laura PourMeADrink]

New Jersey firming up for Obama
by kos
Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 05:25:16 PM PDT
Rasmussen. 6/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/27 results)

Obama (D) 48 (45)
McCain (R) 39 (46)



That's a 10-point swing. Let's look at the internals:

6/4 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
Obama 48 42 53 7 78 40
McCain 39 46 34 83 13 39

3/27 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other
Obama 45 42 48 18 69 40
McCain 46 51 41 81 24 43



We see a clear "unity bounce" in this poll, with Obama getting 78 percent of Democratic support compared to 69 percent earlier. As his Democratic support inevitably nears 90 percent, this state will be put away.

[JackBeck]

1. Oh, please.

I love how the Thugs love to put Jersey into play, when our trend has leaned Democratic for many Presidential elections.

There has been a huge influx or urban, liberal voters from NYC into North Jersey and from Philly into South Jersey. The dead-enders from the Pine Barrens in the South and the knuckle-dragger freepers in the non-urban sections of North Jersey are more than out-numbered.

[MadBadger]

2. If Rasmussen were to poll NJ today, his lead would probably be closer to 15 points

They polled the day after he won, but the bump probably took a few days to register, especially after Saturday.