That of 'stranger', is the one in which persons who have 'built up to murder' will be concentrated: these are usually the acts of 'career criminals', seasoned by those of lunatics. The category of 'friends and acquaintances' certainly will contain a number of criminals, or at least persons with some record of violence, but the killings in these categories generally 'blow up' out of some casual altercation or minor quarrel. The same is generally true of family killings, though these momentary quarrels often arise from long grudges, or patterns of psychopathy in a dominant partner. Pre-meditated killings by surprise are pretty rare over-all: very few people actually think like that, and even fewer have the mental character needed to act on such thoughts.
I think we are mostly in agreement here.
It is certainly true persons of a certain temperament and possessed of practiced skill can wield contact weapons with great efficacy, but these things are not very common. Most people trying to use a knife to kill will make a serious hash of it. Given the overall history of weapons usage, it seems rather silly to try and argue seriously that firearms are not more effective killing implements than blades and clubs. You might as well try and argue that a motor truck offers no advantages over a horse-cart in conveying goods over a distance: certainly both can do it, but one certainly does so at greater speed and with greater ease and requires a good deal less craft-knowledge on the part of the driver.
We are in partial agreement here as well. Our disagreement is primarily one of degree; I think to a degree you underestimate the threat posed by an unpracticed aggressor with a knife. I am licensed to carry a firearm, and honestly an attacker with a knife worries me somewhat more than a person with a gun. Knives are effective maiming/killing weapons, but (from the criminal's standpoint) have less power of intimidation than a gun might; they are also silent, whereas a gunshot sounds an alarm over several blocks. Hence, a robber wielding a knife is considerably more likely to initiate the confrontation with a slash or stab, whereas a robber wielding a gun is more likely to open with a verbal or nonverbal threat rather than actual shots fired. I have read somewhere that the proportion of knife robberies in which the victim gets slashed or stabbed may be as high as 1 in 3, but would have to do some digging to find a primary source.
Beyond 7 yards or so, there is no doubt, the gun usually wins if the shooter is halfway competent; in closer, with a civilian gun, a strong, athletic knife wielder, and no intervening cover, it is a more even fight, in my opinion.
My point is simply the general one, that a conflict between persons in which a firearm is present is more likely to have a lethal outcome than one in which no firearm is present. This suggests that a reduction in the number of firearms in circulation would have the effect of depressing the incidence of unlawful killing across the board.
Assuming for the sake of argument that your initial premise is correct, I believe your conclusion is a
non sequitur because you conflate two largely separate populations as if they were a single culture. You could confiscate 98% of all the guns in the USA and have absolutely no effect on the unlawful gun violence rate,
if you take the guns of those who have never misused them and likely never will.
Alas, most recent gun-control proposals have done precisely that, targeting the nonviolent and law-abiding rather than the criminally violent. It is conceptually much easier, after all, to ban the law-abiding from buying popular guns than it is to investigate and prosecute straw gun purchasers, to prosecute those who attempt to buy guns illegally and fail the NICS check, to patch the holes in the court system such that violent criminals who use firearms are actually prosecuted instead of having the gun charges always be plea-bargained away. It is even harder to rebuild the trust of an inner-city community between the police and those they are supposed to serve, and to create functioning inner-city schools and economies and a thriving inner-city culture.
It was once passionately argued, in the early 20th century, that a profound reduction in the amount of legal alcoholic beverage in circulation would have the effect of depressing the incidence of irresponsible alcohol use across the board. The 18th Amendment and the Volstead Act did just that, and the result wasn't a reduction in alcohol misuse; it ultimately caused an
increase in alcohol related mortality and morbidity (including an epidemic of blindness from methanol poisoning), drove formerly-legal alcohol commerce underground, shifted the market sharply toward the hardcore drinks (whisky largely displacing beer, as it was easier to smuggle on a per-dose basis), glamorized misuse, and gave rise to organized crime and the inevitable turf wars. And things continued to spiral out of control until Prohibition was replaced by a regulated-commerce, right-to-drink model.
Were a comprehensive gun ban to somehow be implemented, and the legitimate gun market driven underground, I do not believe that criminal gun misuse would be significantly impacted. On the contrary, I believe it would exacerbate it.
Whether this could be put into practical effect as a policy, or achieved by law, is a separate question. The number of firearms present in our country is tremendous, and the attachment to their possession very great among a great many people. Even if one considers this attachment to possession of firearms romantic and irrational, it remains real, and potent as a political force. In the final analysis, it is not just the numbers of people holding a particular view that gives it its political force: its political force is a product of the number holding the view times the intensity with which it is held. A greater number who are in favor of a position, but not too deeply attached to it, will not prevail over a smaller number who hold a contrary view to which they are very deeply attached. As a matter of practical politics, your side is in the stronger position in this debate, and likely to remain so. It is not a question which engages me deeply on either side. As a boy, shooting was a great pleasure; as an adult living in a large city, it has never seemed necessary to me to own a fire-arm, even in the period it is my habit to refer to as 'my adventurous youth'.
I agree with you here. And lawful gun owners are indeed
deeply committed to preserving the rights we have left; the right to continue to own the classes of guns we now own is not open to negotiation. There may be common ground to be found on further proposals narrowly targeted at criminal misuse, but the rights of the law-abiding are not on the table.
Many of those I have personally encountered who pressed a case for needing firearms to 'protect themselves' struck me as people who should on no account be let near possession of anything more readily lethal than a popsicle stick, being wholly unsuited in my view to wield lethal force owing to unsound temperament and lack of good sense concerning other people, particularly people not closely resembling them.
I have no doubt that this is sometimes true. And some of those probably do manage to legally disqualify themselves from gun ownership as well, via unwise life choices. But I believe the incompetents are vastly outnumbered by the competent majority.
In most of the United States, of the competent, educated people you encounter on a daily basis, between one in five, and one in two, personally own a gun. If you drive down an average well-kept suburban street in most of the United States, roughly half will contain guns. You don't notice the competent majority simply because you don't realize we own guns when you encounter us in daily life.
If you knew me, or visited my house, or saw me sitting on a park bench watching my children playing, you probably wouldn't know that both my wife and I personally own guns, either (even though I might even have one on my person). You'd see me as the bespectacled, thirtysomething man with short hair and a slightly graying goatee, reasonably well dressed, probably with a thick book in my hand. And it's primarily people like me that the U.S. gun-control lobby is fighting to disarm.